The Toronto Maple Leafs play their final contest prior to the All-Star break against the Ottawa Senators on Wednesday with the realization that they are closer to finishing in the bottom five of the NHL standings than being earning a position in the post-season.
The Leafs now trail Boston by nine points for the final wild card spot in the Eastern Conference after a 3-1 Bruins victory in Dallas on Tuesday. It seems a near impossible task for the sputtering Leafs to catch Claude Julien’s crew, who appear to have found their stride with the return to health of David Krejci and Zdeno Chara or Washington, who are a point ahead of the Bruins for the top wild card spot.
For those who hope that the recent 3-13-0 crash dive continues so that the Leafs are better positioned for the 2015 NHL Draft, three teams trailing Toronto in the standings gained ground. Philadelphia moved to within two points of the Leafs with a fight-filled 3-2 overtime victory over Pittsburgh at Wells Fargo Center, while Ottawa and Minnesota earned a road point in overtime losses to New York and Detroit.
With a week off after the game in Kanata on Wednesday, the Maple Leafs organization has to decide when they intend to begin implementing their plan for the club leading up to the March 2nd trade deadline. Any plan to either start a full rebuild or a less invasive restructuring of the roster begins with trying to get players with expiring contracts to agree to contract extensions that are cost effective or move them for future assets.
Moves like these are usually made in the final days leading up to the deadline to maximize the return, but there may be a desire for the Leafs to make these moves earlier to allow young players in the organization a long look at the NHL level. The question is what the Leafs can reasonably expect in return for these players:
Cody Franson
Salary- $3.3 Million
Stats: GP:45, G:6, A:22, PTS:28, PIM:26
Sportsnet’s Damien Cox reported on Saturday that the Leafs have contacted Franson’s representatives about an extension, but the past contract squabbles between the two sides does not inspire confidence that a deal will get done with the prospect of Franson being an unrestricted free agent this July.
Everything appears set up for the 27-year-old blueliner to get big money over the summer, as the number of top free agent defensemen continues to dwindle (the Rangers Marc Staal being the latest to sign an extension). Franson is posting career offensive numbers, is a much sought after right-handed defenseman and is extremely effective on the power play.
Teams in the playoff mix such as Los Angeles, Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh who are dealing with injuries or unavailability on their blueline may be willing to pay a high price for Franson, as clubs with pending UFA’s(Johnny Boychuk, Mike Green) are unlikely to weaken their blueline prior to the postseason and other names mentioned in trade speculation(Jeff Petry, Zbenyk Michalek, Andrej Sekera) are more suited to bottom pairing duty on a contending team.
Return: The perfect storm would be another one or two contending teams suffering defensive injuries and the bidding war escalating to a first round pick, but more realistically the Leafs can get a second-round pick and a prospect.
Mike Santorelli
Salary: $1.5 Million
Stats: GP: 47, G:9, A:17, PTS: 26, PIM:6
Experienced, versatile forwards are a valuable commodity on the trade deadline market because they offer depth and flexibility to teams during the postseason. Santorelli has built on a successful half season in Vancouver interrupted by injury with a solid contribution in Toronto, playing both a bottom six and top six role on the wing and at center.
Poised to be the 2015 version of Mason Raymond, Santroelli looks like he will be set up to turn a good year with the Leafs into a long-term contract. Toronto likes the Vancouver native’s work ethic, but if is asking for numbers similar to what Raymond signed for last summer($3 Million per season), Toronto does not have the room to sign him.
Santorelli may bring Toronto a higher return than many think, since playoff teams like Chicago, Boston, Tampa Bay or Pittsburgh can fit his $1.5 Million salary under their limited cap space.
Return: Second round pick or young prospect
Daniel Winnik
Salary: $1.3 Million
Stats: GP:45, G:3, A:15, PTS:18, PIM:14
Similar to Santorelli, the 29-year-old veteran has versatility to play multiple positions and contribute on special teams. Although not a gifted offensive player, Winnik can play anywhere from the second to fourth line effectively and is inexpensive enough contractually to not cause cap concerns.
Return: Third round pick or mid-prospect.
David Booth
Salary: $1.1 Million
Stats: GP:25, G:1, A:1, PTS:2, PIM:8
The relative success of Santorelli and Winnik as free agent additions has not happened with the injury-plagued Booth, who suffered a broken foot in a September pre-season game against Buffalo. The speedy winger has not shown the skill level that once enabled him to score 30 goals in the NHL, playing mostly a fourth-line role with Toronto.
It is possible that the Leafs can move Booth to a team looking to add veteran depth at forward, but based on his lack of production, the return will not be significant.
Return: Mid-round pick
Korbinian Holzer
Salary: $787,500
Stats: GP:19, G:0, A:4, PTS:4 PIM:21
The 26-year-old German has played much better in his second stint with Toronto than during the lockout shortened 2013 campaign, mostly because he is being played on the bottom pairing with Jake Gardiner instead of top pairing minutes with Dion Phaneuf.
Holzer is a right-hand shot, has a nasty edge to his game and has an inexpensive expiring contract, which could be attractive commodities to a team looking to add depth on the blueline. Toronto cannot send the big blueliner back to the Toronto Marlies without going through waivers, so they will have to keep him on the NHL roster for the remainder of the season or trade him to get any kind of return.
Return: Mid to low round pick
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For those who think that trading Phil Kessel and his $8 Million contract would be difficult, ESPN’s Pierre LeBrun indicates in his latest column that is far from the case.
"Are you kidding me?" a Western Conference team executive told LeBrun this week. "If they ever auctioned him off there would be a lot of interest regardless of that contract. The guy can score. It’s hard to find those guys."
While it is not certain that trading Kessel is the direction that Team President Brendan Shanahan wants to go, the Leafs would likely wait until the summer when other team’s cap restrictions would be less of a consideration and Toronto could get the best return possible for the 27-year-old sniper.
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