The Boston Bruins have a Defenseman who is set to become an RFA on July 1st in Dougie Hamilton who is going to get a lot of attention around the league and Pierre LeBrun writes that the Oilers are considering an Offer Sheet.
LeBrun’s piece can be seen here. There’s really nothing much more to it than that it’s a possibility the Oilers and others are discussing, and it’s one that makes a lot of sense from an Oiler perspective.
The Oil desperately need a top pairing Defender but one who isn’t going to go into decline within 2-3 years of acquiring. The Salary Cap is also high enough that the threshold for giving up four 1st Overall picks is unnecessary to cross in order to put the Bruins in a serious Cap bind should they wish to match the offer.
Now the Bruins have already said they would match any offer made to Hamilton but frankly that’s what they have to say or they would be inviting every team to make an offer.
Side note: I hope somebody puts an RFA offer on Justin Schultz.
Offer Sheet Compensation looks like this for the upcoming year:
<$1,205,377 = Nothing $1,205,377 to $1,826,328 = 3rd Round Pick $1,826,328 to $3,652,659 = 2nd Round Pick $3,652,659 to $5,478,986 = 1st & 3rd Round Pick $5,478,986 to $7,305,316 = 1st, 2nd, & 3rd Round Pick $7,305,316 to $9,131,645 = 1st, 1st, 2nd, & 3rd Round Pick >$9,131,645 = 1st, 1st, 1st, & 1st Round Pick
Now, as per GeneralFanager.com, the Bruins have just 11 Forwards, 4 Defensemen, and 1 Goalie under contract and just 4.8M Dollars of Cap space to sign fit in at least 1 more Forward, 2 Defenders, and a backup goalie. Now let’s take that Marc Savard deal and gift them back the 4M they ought to get in Cap relief at the beginning of the season but also add 1 more F position they need to fill.
That should leave the Bruins roughly 8.8M to fill 5 roster spots.
The sweet spot for an Offer Sheet to Dougie Hamilton would probably be in the 7M dollar range time 5 years, leaving the Bruins just 1.8M to fill their other positions. In compensation should the Bruins prove unable to match, the Oilers would give up just a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd Round pick. That is a steal.
And matching would mean difficult decisions for Boston. The Bruins spent a couple of picks to acquire Brett Connolly at the Deadline this past year and he’s an RFA who would probably eat most of that remaining 1.8M alone. Suffice to say that the Bruins probably could match a 7M offer from the Oilers, but they would have to walk away from certain players to make things stable again or go through an embarrassingly difficult year where each game is managed by their Capologist.
The Bruins are indeed vulnerable to an offer like this and the Oilers have the Cap space and the need for this player in particular. Making the offer is something that just makes a lot of sense from an Oiler perspective.
Dougie Hamilton (who I will always refer to as Dougie despite the fact that he is not 6 years old) really is the player the Oilers need. He is a 6’5…, 212 pound, Right-Shooting Defenseman and he’s just 21 years old (he’ll be 22 in a week).
He was Drafted 9th Overall in the 2011 Draft as the 2nd Defender taken in the 1st Round. The Oilers took RNH 1st and Klefbom 19th as you’ll recall. Hamilton returned to the OHL for one season then made the Bruins as a 19 year old the following season.
Hamilton’s OHL career saw him as a point producing Defenseman with Niagara going 67GP, 12-46-58 in his Draft year and 50GP, 17-55-72 in his final OHL season.
His boxcars for his 3 NHL seasons are as follows:
2012-2013 42GP, 5-11-16 2013-2014 64GP, 7-18-25 2014-2015 72GP, 10-32-42
Hamilton has been in a good spot developing on the Bruins beside a player like Zdeno Chara. And Hamilton did play most frequently with Chara this past season and the 2nd most common partner for him was Seidenberg. From this we can infer that Hamilton was largely on Boston’s top pairing at Even Strength and we know from his advanced stats via stats.hockeyanalysis.com that they were not loading Hamilton up in the offensive zone.
Hamilton was 3rd on the Bruins D in ES TOI/G but was 2nd on the D for PP TOI/G, behind Krug by just 7 seconds per game in that discipline.
Hamilton was 1st on the Bruins D in Shots per 60 minutes (6.32) and Points per 60 minutes (1.10) at Even Strength.
On the PP he was 2nd in Shots per 60 (16.57) and 1st in Points per 60 (4.73).
For Reference to the Oilers, Justin Schultz at Even Strength averaged 4.52 in Shots/60 and 0.77 in Points/60. On the PP he averaged 7.25 Shots/60 and 2.95 Points/60.
In terms of the possession numbers, Hamilton was tops among the Bruins Defense in Corsi For % at 55% and tops for CF% Relative to Teammates as well averaging 5% more than his on-ice teammates. And, again, this is without the Bruins taking drastic measures with regards to Zone Starts.
Dougie Hamilton is a developing player but he is already on track for an incredibly bright future. 7 Million per season would be a significant number for this player, but based on his age, pedigree, and accomplishments it is reasonable to suggest that 7 Million would be an appropriate amount to pay for the next 5 years of service.
The Oilers should definitely consider an offer sheet for this player. He fits exactly with what they need as an organization and frankly it’s a better gamble than waiting until Seabrook hits UFA status and offering 7x7 for him because Hamilton will still be in his 20’s when his next contract runs out and Seabrook will be in his mid-late 30’s.
The Oilers have almost nothing to lose by making an offer like this and even if they don’t succeed in acquiring the player they will succeed in forcing a competitor (albeit an Eastern Conference one) in making difficult decisions on other players they have.
I look forward to seeing if this potential move comes to fruition.
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