There are two major things when it comes to a pipeline of players and prospects: Draft and development.
Over the past few years the Kings pipeline value has been rated in the bottom half of the league (15-30) if you want to use the rankings at Hockey's Future. Generally they saddle in at around the 17-23 range, which is probably fair. You may disagree with that because everyone values their own prospects higher than other teams, but that makes sense when you view the Kings pipeline in its entirety. Having fewer picks and later picks can always put a damper on the quality available, such has been the case in the last several years. It does not mean it does not exist at those places in the draft, but instead of a high percentage shot of getting a good player, like in the top 10 or so, it's more like a four or five to one shot. Are these realistic numbers though? Is it really 50-50? Is it really like four or five to one after the top 10? Let's do a little exploring on that.
Drafting, for all the work and tireless effort and time put into it, is a very low success endeavour. The Kings have actually seen quite a number of players drafted in the mid 2000s move on to NHL careers, but to what success is a different story.
If you look at the ten year period from 2010-2000 you can get a feel for how it goes.
Los Angeles
The Kings made 102 selections in 11 drafts from 2010-2000,
46 of those selections played at least one NHL game. However, success is not defined by simply reaching the NHL.
Of those 46, 27 played over 100 games (1+ season)
15 have played over 250 games (3+ seasons) (16 if you count Dwight King)
10 of those players either still remain with the Los Angeles Kings or played a significant part of their career with the Kings. (Brown, Kopitar, Clifford, King, Martinez, Quick, Doughty, Lewis, Visnovsky, Frolov)
Want to talk about some low odds of actually finding a long term impact player? There it is. 102 selections over 10 years, only 50% ever play on NHL ice, only 25% last up to a season, and only about 10% actually become impactful long term players on your club.
At least for the Kings. You know how much we love comparables on this blog, so let's take a look at the Blues and see how their numbers match up.
St. Louis
2010 to 2000.
The Blues had 95 selections in that time frame of 11 drafts.
43 of those 95 picks played AT LEAST one NHL game.
Of those 43, 22 played over 100 games
12 of those 22 players played at least 250 games (3+ seasons) (Tarasenko and Schwartz 14, since like King, they will inevitably play more)
Of that final 12/14, 9 have have spent or are spending significant amounts of their career with the Blues (Backes, Reaves, Tarasenko, Oshie, Schwartz, Pietrangelo, McClement, Perron, Berglund)
9 out of 95, or about 9.5% chance of a successful long term impact player. For Los Angeles it was 10 out of 102 or 9.8%
One more just because this is so fun.
Detroit The famed Detroit Red Wings. Perceived hockey geniuses in terms of draft and development.
Detroit had 85 selections from 2010-2000
32 of them played at least one game in the NHL.
20 of those 32 have played over 100 games
13 of those 20 have played over 250 games (3+seasons)
10 have played significant time with the Red Wings (Franzen, Fillpula, Howard, Ericcson, Kindl, Helm, Quincey, Hudler, Kronwall, Abdelkader)
Overall, 10 players from 85 selections were long term impact players, 11.75%, a difference of 2% from teams like St. Louis and Los Angeles.
A lot of theories can be put forth as well for the impact portion. Maybe Detroit had a crowded roster, maybe the player suffered significant injuries which cut their career short. There are plenty of variables. However, of those three teams it seems that the percentages match up.
Other teams were looked at also, and no surprise, the range of success percentage of drafting an impact player ranges from about 9-11% on average. A full table may be released in the future of all team success rates over a given time since the data was pretty interesting.
Overall though, that is the reality of draft and development. It is ultimately a one in ten shot that you are going to get something of significant value. It is not just drafting either, it is about the developmental side of things. Surprisingly, most of those picks that ended up being impact players for the sampled teams were not first round picks. Five of the ten players for Detroit were, five of the nine players for St. Louis as well. Finally, Los Angeles only saw four of their ten impact players come from the first round. Those are a lot of numbers to take in when you consider there were 11 first rounds over those 11 years, and some years the sampled teams picked twice or didn't pick at all. Or in the case of the LA Kings 2003 draft, they selected three times.
Overall, the Kings actually had 16 first round picks in those 11 drafts, and selected just four long term impact players from those selections. A success rate of just 25%. First round is no guarantee. That can make the question of the Kings trading their first round selection this year all the more tantalizing, since there is ultimately a three in four chance that the player could either A) be a dud, or B) move on to another team/league before embarking on a Kings centric career.
For posterity, St. Louis had 13 first round selections and hit on five (38%). Detroit, amazingly, had only five first round picks in 11 drafts from 2010-2000, but still hit on just two of those five, or 40% (Kronwall, Kindl). To be fair, the jury is even still out on Kindl, as he is shy of the 250-game mark at 248 but was included due to inevitability.
Overall these are really interesting numbers when you get down to draft talk and first round selections. Nothing is ever for sure. Even in a draft that is as stacked as this one. Nothing is for sure when you select a seventh round guy either like Jonathan Ericcson or Jordan Nolan. With good development and a lot of luck, they too can be impact players.
Development is arguably the more important part of the whole draft and development umbrella. With just around a 25% chance of getting players that can capably play in the NHL, you have to work them along the way, build them, shape them, and ultimately get them into your NHL roster at a point where they can stay. No wonder why the odds go from 50 to 25, to almost 10, when you get from playing an NHL game, staying in the NHL, and being a legitimate NHL player. If you have a team that helps you along the way then maybe you see that little two percent bump in chances, ala Detroit.
Nevertheless, the life of a scout and a director of player development has to be a trying one. You work in a part of hockey which gets its own two day showcase that you work for almost all year and sometimes longer. Then after the draft you have a period of 2-3 years where you have to make sure everything is going right with those players you picked. In the end, the fruits of your tireless labor result in maybe a handful of players. Yet, it is an incredibly scrutinized device is it not? How often do fans talk about the worst draft busts? Or the fact that their organization can not develop players properly? It is probably true that some teams are better at it than others, but what does better mean? Did they get a little luckier than another team? Did they select one more player or two more players that made NHL impacts with their club than another team? That might be all it takes.
It is a low percentage world, and sometimes an unrealistic world. Drafting is hard, development is even harder. You could draft the perfect player, and have him developed poorly. You could draft the imperfect player, and develop him in an outstanding way. You could also draft someone who looks perfect but ends up being a bust (Which looks bad on your development staff).
As we head towards the wrap up of the Stanley Cup finals and officially move into draft season, remember these things. Nothing is assured when your team walks up to the podium in the first round and selects the next Sidney Crosby/Alex Ovechkin. Go easy on your development staff as well fans! It is not an easy job at all.
Follow me on twitter for news and notes about the Kings and the NHL
++++I AM CURRENTLY LOOKING FOR ADVERTISERS! If you, or anyone you know would be interested in placing an ad on the blog here at HockeyBuzz then send me a PM!+++++