The Jets Are Out-Shooting, Yes They Aren't
The Winnipeg Jets are sitting 4-2 after 6 games in this NHL season. Yesterday was the first example of the many battles that the Jets will face in the central division as they fell to the Blues, 4-2 at home. It was a good game but the better team won. Saying anything other than that would be disingenuous to you the reader and to the Blues who played the last game of a very good road trip.
One comment that came up today whilst listening to 1290 on my drive to the gym this AM was that from none other than Matt Leibl the lead host on the Big Show. He was talking about the Jets shots against and who they have been outshot by. His theory and point was that against the better teams the Jets are getting hammered on the shot attempts.
Is that really the case?
After six games the Jets are the following in terms of league rank:
Even Strength 5v5 Shots against: 24th (137) Even Strength 5v5 Shots for: 10th (129)
Even Strength Shots against per 60 mins: 20th (30.4) Even Strength Shots for per 60 mins: 15th (28.6)
Now look at this in all situations:
Shots against all situations: 29th (198) Shot attempts for all situations: 6th (174)
Shot attempts against all situations per 60 mins: 4th (33) Shot attempts for all situations per 60 mins: 18 (29)
Something is not right here and it was Brandon Reuwicki who pointed out to Leibl that there might be a pretty obvious explanation for the problem. At first blush the Jets are getting killed by penalties, or at least the ramifications of taking penalties. But, even at even strength they are giving up a ton of shots and hardly what their strong point was last season.
For the entire season last year the Jets were the third best team in Shot Attempts against giving up only 1823 or, 27.2/60 at even strength and in all situations they were 10th at 2488 or 28.4/60.
What we’re seeing is a marked difference and some ridiculously high save percentages for both goalies. Those may explain why the Jets are sitting at 4-2 instead of 1-5 or 2-3 as a record but they do little to tell the story of shot attempts and the marked change from last season to this season.
Some one might suggest that starting three rookies could have an effect at the outset of the season, seeing as they would need time to learn and execute the Maurice system properly. That would be a fair statement but what if it’s not who came but who left? Michael Frolik, was a possession monster, as when he was on the ice the play was often going the other way and shots were bing fired at the opposition net and not the Jets’ goalies. Should losing one player cause this much change? One would hope not but Frolik’s departure should have some effect on the possession outcome.
The concern is that in three games the Jets have allowed 40 or more shots against but only once have they broken 30 shots for and that was against Boston while they still allowed 31 against. It’s a double effect, they are shooting less and being outshot more and at some point there has to be a tipping point where the results are unsustainable with the style of play.
That day of reckoning might be soon as they Jets face the Lightning, the Wild and then the Kings. The Kings’ PDO is almost the opposite of the Jets- running at a brutal 92.2% but more importantly shooting just 2.7% as a team. Compared to the Jets that’s a 5% negative swing with Winnipeg being at 7.8%. All numbers at even strength.
You can keep playing with these numbers for any situation you want but what does not change is that the Jets are having problems getting shots/possession and managing shots/possession of the opposition. The only thing keeping them afloat is .949 save percentage at even strength.
The team may be totally aware of this and be looking to address it but how they address it will be interesting. Perhaps they see a specific problem and realize time is the only real resource to address it or contrary they are looking externally to address it.
That’s pure speculation based on the team seeing the same things I, and many other see. Regardless, something is not quite right with the Jets and when facing the stronger opposition of the NHL they are relying on the wrong things to get them through and that is the biggest change so far this season compared to how last season started.