The Chicago Blackhawks Twitterverse and Blogosphere were packed with semi-clever Soup memes and other silliness yesterday.
Stan Bowman and the Hawk front office got "their man," UFA defenseman and former Hawk Brian Campbell on a one year deal at something like $1.5-$2 million, depending on how you calculate bonuses—according to some more serious reports.
On the surface, or taken out of context, it's a very high "value" signing, which, in and of itself is great and commendable.
And it certainly made for a media-ready feel-good story like few others. "Soup will once again be served at the United Center—details at 10!"
The problem, the very BIG problem, with yesterday's SoupFest is, it's sort of like getting a deal on pickup truck when you already purchased one earlier in the summer, and what you really need is a sports car. And after said transaction, you're broke. So no sports car.
On this blog last year, and I'm sure elsewhere, a debate raged over what the Hawks "really" needed—a left wing to play with Jonathan Toews and Marian Hossa, or a #4 defenseman.
Well, they needed both. But the far greater need was for the top 6, port-side winger.
Statistically, the Hawks were a middle of the pack team at 5-on-5 hockey. Why? Perhaps part of the reason is that over 40% of their offense came from one line (not Toews'). As that line played less than a third of each game, it's asking for trouble. Conversely, when the Hawks could "load up" their forwards on the power play or in 3-on-3, they were a very good team relatively speaking. Take both of those stats together and you have a very good regular season team and a mediocre playoff team—which they were—even after the addition of Andrew Ladd, which helped at left wing.
Looking at Toews himself, he scored goals at the lower end of his typical pace (28), but not a precipitous falloff from previous years. But his assists were way down. Again, pointing to a lack of production on his wings. Some were quick to point out that marian Hossa's numbers were career lows—he's done!
But there's a chicken or the egg thing there. Hossa is, first and foremost, a shooter. At 38, he still gets his shot off faster than most players. Sure, there's probably some validity to the argument he should get the puck up more in close. But having watched Hossa play over the course of his career—including before he came to Chicago—it's been my consistent observation that Hossa doesn't get so many goals through clever location—he goes or tries to go five hole a lot—but through overwhelming the goalie with the sheer speed of his release and his shot.
So what Hossa needs at center—and on the opposite wing—is someone to get him the puck in prime scoring areas and in the proper place relative to his stick position. A top center, preferably a lefty—and a natural left wing with some creativity, not someone more comfortable at right wing, trying to learn the opposite flank. And, yes, there are some guys who can play both sides equally well.
But not: Andrew Shaw, Marko Dano, Teuvo Teravainen, or Ryan Garbutt.
The other thing to remember is this: offensive zone possession is the best defense your team can have. The Toews line with Brandon Saad was the league's best at maintaining ungodly offensive zone possession, often allowing full line changes while holding the puck in the zone—not to mention scoring a lot.
So the Hawks entered this offseason knowing they would likely lose Ladd, and therefore, they would need to shore up left wing—and the blue line.
And Bob's Your Uncle, before too terribly long, the Hawks checked the defense box . . . with Czech national team and KHL blue liner Michal Kempny. Bowman himself had one of his "sit downs" with a reporter and expounded on the positives in Kempny's game: two-way defenseman, big shot, mobile, responsible—with extensive international and pro experience.
So the defense box, folks, unless Bowman "misspoke" at that time, was pretty much checked.
So what did Bowman do next—go get that left wing that's desperately needed?
Uhhh no, another defenseman.
And let's put this in even deeper context. This was a day after the Hawks announced a new contract for another defenseman who would be Kempny's language buddy, fellow Czech Michal Rozsival. Who, I was told, would be Kempny's likely partner on the third pair, to help with his acclimation to the NHL.
So the defense is now very deep, and very experienced, and very crowded—to the point that I heard the team was then shopping Trevor van Riemsdyk—the guy who one week earlier was definitely going to be anchoring the third pair. Now? No room at the Inn, TVR.
But with Campbell (definitely) and Kempny (theoretically) manning the left side of two defense pairings, the Hawks will definitely have faster transition out of their zone.
But where is that target of stretch passes, the thoroughbred left winger with finish on the Toews line? Replacing the one who left for Columbus a little over a year ago?
Not in Chicago–with something like $3.1 million left after signing Campbell—and two other wing positions to fill. And Bowman stepped yup to the mic at a press conference yesterday and channeled his Inner Mike Smith:
"I like where our team is now."
On the Hawks' budget every penny counts. Campbell was a luxury—sort of like swilling champagne while dining on Kraft Mac and Cheese.
And isn't it funny how yesterday, player turned commentator Matthew Barnaby, best known for once dubbing former on-ice nemesis Lyle Odelein, "Dr. Zaius," suddenly proclaims yesterday to "watch the Hawks" in the Jimmy Vesey sweepstakes on 8/15.
Wonder who tipped ol' Barney on that, and why? There may be some dots to connect here.
And it could also be that the Hawks are in on Vesey big time. That Vesey wants to be in Chicago after 8/15—even though the Sabres own his rights. That Vesey is ready to step in to the NHL as a top 6 left wing in October.
Could be. Maybe. But a lot of stars need to align for this particular story to end well for the Hawks.
Would you bet your paycheck and career on it? I sure as hell wouldn't.
Now, don't get me wrong. I have gained a lot of respect for Stan Bowman—in spite of his tragic, and now mercifully ended, love affair with David Rundblad—over the last couple of years. And I want to believe he has a legitimate plan quietly in the works here.
And yes, there are still whispers of a 2-3 Hawk players, a couple with bigger contracts, being shopped at present.
But Bowman needs to do something. because the list of names who are current Hawk properties being plugged in as possible solutions by fans on my message board are not terribly encouraging: the dregs of a depleted pipeline, recent college graduates, some guy named Panik who couldn't play for Mike Babcock in Toronto.
Saad is a legitimate NHL star. And yes, he was plugged in with Toews and Hossa in the fall of 2013 as a rookie. But Saad had also played a half-season in the AHL, and a year and half in major junior, before showing up in Chicago. And even he struggled mightily his first 20-25 games. Many forget that.
The Hawks don't have that luxury this year—and they also don't have that player waiting in the wings.
I heard yesterday, and not for the first time, the team loves 2014 first rounder Nick Schmaltz, and he is "definitely" penciled in to the NHL roster this year—but as a third line forward, which many believe is where he will be most productive and useful throughout his career.
Reading yesterday's message board lineup suggestions felt—depressingly—like being a fly on the wall in the Führerbunker in April 1945, watching Hitler move around non-existent armies on a table to stop the advancing Russians.
Hey, who am I to go allnegative on yesterday's love fest: "Soup's on at the UC, baby!" YEAH!!
But the pressure's also on, big time, on Stan Bowman and whoever else decided they could wait on, or forego, adding the left wing that's much more needed.
Stay tuned.
JJ