There have been very few games this season where I can recall saying that Matt Nieto played a bad game.
Generally, he’s played a strong possession game and has made smart decisions with the puck. Nieto has had some of the teams worst puck luck from the start of the season going into the All-Star break. The only player I’d say has him beat for luck is Patrick Marleau. Everything about Nieto’s season suggests he should be on the scoresheet more than he has been. He’s currently sitting with 11 points through 38 games.
Nieto has often found himself bouncing from line to line this year as he checks in and out of Todd McLellan’s doghouse. Regardless of where he ends up, though, the players around him improve their possession and that line generates more shot attempts than they do without him.
There are things that need to change with him, though.
Consistency is something that the Sharks should strive to provide Nieto coming out of the All-Star break. Give him a line and let him get comfortable with those players. We already know he’s going to boost the line from a possession standpoint. When the chances increase, the goals will come.
One thing he needs to do more is shoot the puck. He’s got a pretty poor 6.3% shooting percentage right now and perhaps his poor luck is weighing on his mind. He needs to forget about the bad luck and start firing more pucks on net – much like Patrick Marleau continued to do even though things weren’t going his way for the majority of the season.
He shot 8.1% during his rookie season, which is nothing spectacular but it’s still better than this year. It’s also not ludicrous to think he can get back to between 8%-9%. That’s a pretty low expectation that needs to be met.
He also needs to stop taking shifts with Brent Burns. When Nieto is out with Burns he ends up thinking less offensively because he knows that Burns is going to jump into the play. Since Burns sees most of his action when Joe Thornton/Joe Pavelski is on the ice that means that when Burns goes for a skate up the ice one of Thornton, Pavelski or Nieto has to cover for him. Guess who’s the odd man out? Nieto. I’m not saying that’s the wrong call – because it’s definitely the right call – but I am saying it’s hard for him to generate more offense if he’s covering for a defender.
Of all the defenders who have played this season for San Jose Burns has the worst CF% with Nieto at 54.2%. That’s not bad by any stretch, but it’s not as good as it could be when Nieto is out with other players.
Nieto generates the 3rd most scoring chances for per 60 on the team with 30.9 SCF60. The Sharks should want him on the ice more than he has been. Eventually his luck will turn and he’ll get on the sheet more often.
Nieto needs to be given a significant chance to break free offensively, otherwise he’ll remain in his sophomore slump. He increases the quality of everyone’s play – so there’s no risk in playing him on any line. If he doesn’t get the opportunity to consistently play an offensive role then he’ll continue to produce third line totals, when he could – potentially – be doing more.
With the structure of the Sharks life without Thornton/Marleau only two years – potentially – away the Sharks should give Nieto a chance to be a regular top six player. The only player waiting in the wind, without even playing an NHL game, with legitimate top-six potential is Nikolay Goldobin. There are holes to fill now and even more in the future.
All that being said, there’s still nothing wrong with how he’s playing, or how he’s played at any point this season. If he fails to break free offensively and routinely finds himself on the third line more than any other for the remainder of the season he will still be one of – if not the most – effective third line players in the entire NHL.
Thanks for reading.