As someone who has been in the building for nearly all of the Maple Leafs games in Buffalo since 1980, the 4-3 Sabres comeback victory at First Niagara Center on Wednesday could be unlike any previous meeting between the two geographic rivals because of the rather peculiar vibe in the arena.
With both clubs in the alternate universe of fighting towards the bottom of the NHL standings with less than two weeks to go in the season, the majority of both team’s fans (which for Leafs game in Buffalo is always a 50/50 split) were rooting for the other side.
In a purely unscientific poll taken before the game, 20 Toronto jersey wearing fans were asked if they were rooting for the Leafs to win or lose the game, since a victory would move them to within one point of the Carolina Hurricanes, increasing their chances of ending the season with a lower draft slot and decreasing the odds of winning the NHL Draft lottery.
17 of the 20 Blue and White clad fans said they hoped the Blue and White would lose.
The crowd reaction in the building was rather muted as Zac Dalpe gave Buffalo a 1-0 lead 6:48 into the first period and was noticeably louder for the Leafs, who tied the game late in the first on a point shot by Eric Brewer, took the lead 47 seconds into the middle frame on a James van Riemsdyk goal and increased their advantage on Nazem Kadri’s 18th of the season.
The Sabres replied quickly as Cody Hodgson narrowed the lead to 3-2 just 30 seconds later on a wraparound goal that beat Leafs goalie Jonathan Bernier.
As with most contests in Buffalo, the home squad always puts their best foot forward against Toronto and pounced on the disorganized Leafs in the third, as Matt Moulson tied the game early on the power play and Matt Ellis scored the game-winner on backhander past Jonathan Bernier.
Ellis broke a 33-game point drought with a two-point effort and Dalpe scored his first goal in 16 games with the Sabres, who move to within two points of the Arizona Coyotes in the extremely tight race for 30th place and the guarantee of drafting Connor McDavid or Jack Eichel.
The regulation loss was another step towards Toronto locking up the fourth draft slot and a 9.5% chance at selecting first in the NHL Draft.
The magic number (which represents any combination of Carolina points earned or Toronto point lost) is six, as the Hurrcianes have 67 points and six games remaining and the Leafs have 64 points and just four games left.
The weekend will see Toronto taking a central role at determining the final Eastern Conference wild card spot and having a chance to play spoiler, as they play Boston at TD Garden on Saturday and return to Air Canada Center to face Ottawa on Easter Sunday. The Bruins currently hold a three point lead on the Senators.
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The anticipation for the upcoming draft lottery to be held in Toronto on April 18th is the highest since the Sidney Crosby Sweepstakes in 2005, but as we discussed at the end of a recent Hockeybuzzcast last week, it will be interesting how the NHL chooses to unveil the order of selections to maintain the suspense of who will select first until the last possible moment.
The NBA reveals the entirety of the teams who qualify for the lottery in inverse order from 14 to 1, but the structure of the NHL lottery is different and set up this year where a team finishing in a spot can move up to #1, stay in the position they finished the season at or drop down one slot if a lower team wins the lottery.
The current order is : 14. LOS ANGELES(1%), 13. OTTAWA(2%), 12. SAN JOSE(2.5%), 11. FLORIDA(3.0%), 10. DALLAS(3.5%), 9. COLORADO(5%), 8. PHILADELPHIA(6%), 7. COLUMBUS (6.5%), 6. NEW JERSEY (7.5%), 5. CAROLINA (8.5%), 4. TORONTO (9.5%), 3. EDMONTON (11.5%), 2. ARIZONA (13.5%), 1. BUFFALO (20%)
If the NHL presents the entirety of the teams as the NBA does, the order of the picks will give away what happens if a lower team wins. If there is a break in the order ( Ex. Florida picking 12th instead of 11th) that would automatically let the cat out of the bag that the Sharks had won the lottery.
The league might choose to reveal only the top five picks, but again that will be an indicator right away. If Toronto is picking 5th, that means someone slotted 6th through 14th is getting McDavid, but if Carolina stays at #5 and Edmonton is picking at #4, that could lead to an impromptu celebration at Maple Leaf Square and the ordering of thousands of Blue and White #97 jerseys.
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