The Montreal Canadiens signed Jeff Petry to a six year 33.0 million dollar contract yesterday that has an AAV of 5.5 million.
That is a fair deal for both sides. Defensemen who are able to play over 20 minutes per night and perform well are a hot commodity, especially when they are UFA’s. It is OK to spend money when the player is actually good. It becomes problematic when you spend that kind of money on an Andrew MacDonald or Brooks Orpik.
Why would a Penguins writer bring this up? It is of my opinion that the Penguins should be entertaining the idea of signing a top four defensemen with some of the savings from the Ehrhoff/Martin departures.
Here is what the defense depth looks like (assuming Cole is retained)
Maatta-Letang Pouliot-Cole Dumoulin-Lovejoy Harrington
I do not believe Rob Scuderi will be on the 2015-16 roster. It remains to be seen what action will be taken to make that happen whether it is a trade (unlikely), a trade with salary retained (more likely), or a buyout (most likely).
Letang has well documented health issues and Olli Maatta is coming off a season in which he battled cancer, came down with mumps, and had to have his shoulder surgically repaired for the second time. If either Letang or Maatta go down what are the Penguins left with?
Ian Cole was a nice trade but I am not totally convinced he is an every night top four defenseman. Ian Cole in the bottom pairing looks a lot more like a championship caliber team than Ian Cole in the top four.
With Petry never hitting the market finding a top four defenseman becomes a little bit more difficult. I wrote over a month ago about the idea of Cody Franson as a fit for Pittsburgh. I still believe that to be the case.
Here is how Franson and Petry compared with one another in 2014-15. Keep in mind they both played on bad teams (Toronto/Edmonton) before they were traded to playoff caliber teams (Nashville/Montreal).
The only knock on Franson is that he didn’t receive enough ice time. His performance numbers are good and have been for a long time.
Cody Franson will be in the same neighborhood price wise as Jeff Petry. It seems pricey on the surface, but filling Paul Martin’s void is not going to be cheap and it is wishful thinking to think that Ian Cole, Brian Dumoulin and/or Scott Harrington can do so. If you want to make room on the roster for Dumoulin or Harrington to play on a regular basis move on from Ben Lovejoy. That trade is a big reason why Pittsburgh has to dip into the top four defense market to begin with.
The following passage is from the above referenced Cody Franson article:
The longer the Canadiens stay alive in the playoffs the larger the recency bias will be with Jeff Petry. As a result this will drive up his price. It is a blessing in disguise that the Predators underutilized Franson and that they were eliminated from the playoffs in Round one.
If Jeff Petry stayed with Edmonton and never played in the playoffs this past spring I do not believe he would have landed the same contract he did. He was the same player in Montreal that he was in Edmonton. This cognitive biased value assessment will keep Franson in that acceptable 5 year 25.0 million dollar range.
At the end of the day playing the youth is still important, but playing very good veterans is also an acceptable approach as well. The problem is when younger players are blocked by bad veterans. Cody Franson would not fall in the latter category.
Even with this hypothetical Franson addition Pittsburgh would still be able to utilize their younger defensemen. Olli Maatta, Derrick Pouliot, Brian Dumoulin and/or Scott Harrington are all 23 years old or younger. Kris Letang would be the oldest at 28 years of age. Cody Franson is currently 27 while Ian Cole is only 26 years old. There is potential for a good mix of youth and “experience….
Pittsburgh needs insurance for Letang and Maatta. The status quo is a very risky proposition.
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Key thing to remember about Franson's performance - he was outperforming both sheltered minutes in NSH and very tough top pair mins in TOR
— Stephen Burtch (@SteveBurtch) June 3, 2015
He didn't remotely "underperform" in either place this past season.
— Stephen Burtch (@SteveBurtch) June 3, 2015
His PDO in Tor was 100.31 with 9.98 On-Ice SH%, in NSH it was 97.12 with 5.45 On-Ice SH%... the drop in his assist rate wasn't his "fault"
— Stephen Burtch (@SteveBurtch) June 3, 2015
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