With the Ottawa Senators recent run, has Dave Cameron done enough to warrant some consideration for the Jack Adams award as Coach of the Year?
He certainly got a late start to the season, but there is a precedent for mid-season replacements to win the Jack Adams award. In the last 13 seasons, 3 times the winner at the end of the year was a man who had taken over part-way through the season.
In 2001 Bill Barber of the Flyers won the award after coaching 54 games, in 2008 Bruce Boudreau got the nod with just 61 games in Washington and the award was given to Ken Hitchcock in 2012 after taking over the Blues for 69 games.
By the end of the season, Cameron would have been at the helm of the Senators for 55 games.
Look at how Cameron compares with the winning percentages of the other replacement winners.
*Cameron will have coached 55 games by the end of the season and the projection for points % is using the complete 45 games so far.
That is all well and good, but what impact has Cameron had on the Senators since taking over on December 8th?
As you can see the overall offensive output is greatly increased (by about half a goal and 3.5 shots per game) while the defense is also improved (.2 goals against and 3 shots per game).
There are a number of factors that were out of Cameron's control that have led to this almost perfect storm of success that has gotten the Senators back into the mix.
1) Marc Methot's return - anchored the top pairing and allowed Erik Karlsson to get to another level.
2) Andrew Hammond - Injuries to Craig Anderson and Robin Lehner forced Hammond into the lineup and a run that nobody could have anticipated.
3) Smith, Phillips & Neil Injuries - Forced younger players (and Erik Condra) to play more and learn/succeed on the job.
While those 3 major factors weren't really in Cameron's control, the difference between the way the club was playing under MacLean for the past year and 27 games and the way Cameron had them playing almost immediately was night and day. It took some time for the results to come, but not all of the credit can go to Hammond or Methot.
One of Cameron's best moves early on in his tenure was to recognize what Mark Stone and Mike Hoffman could bring and put them in prime roles.
Cameron placed the rookie duo in top 6 roles and was rewarded for his move. Stone's minutes were increased dramatically after Cameron took over, and his production per 60 minutes of ice time also increased accordingly.
So while the numbers show that the Senators are better since Cameron took over, there are probably a number of factors that weren't in his control that worked out in his favor, both expected and unexpected.
Depending on how the last 10 games pan out might be the deciding factor on how many votes he gets, but unless you watched the games closely pre- and post- MacLean, you won't get a full appreciation for the difference in style of play and how much that has affected the results.
In the end, while Cameron's projections are pretty close to matching what Bill Barber did with the Flyers in 2000-2001, I am not sure Cameron will get similar recognition from around the league.
There were some growing pains in the beginning, as he tweaked the system and implemented his style, but Ottawa has been one of the top teams since Jan 1. Only the Rangers (55) Blues (52) and Habs (50) have more points than Ottawa's 48 since the New Year.
Cameron probably won't win the award, or get nominated unless the Senators can somehow almost win out, and win 8 or 9 of the remaining 10 games, or reach the 100 point plateau, which would force the voters (NHL Broadcasters' Association) to take note. Just making the playoff probably won't be enough, but cracking 100 points would be a significant achievement considering where the team was on December 8th when the change was made.
However, the job he has done most certainly has changed a lot of minds about what his medium-term future with the team holds (because long-term and coach are two things that should almost never be uttered in the same sentence), and he has demonstrated that he is more than just Eugene Melnyk's lap dog, which was what a lot of opinions out there seemed to hold when he took over the job.
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Oh, and by the way, the Senators got a little bit of help in their playoff run last night with the Panthers losing in regulation to the Lightning, keeping the Cats from closing the gap. The Panthers remain on the fringe of the race, 5 points back of the Senators. At the other end of the spectrum, the Red Wings lost in overtime to Arizona, but the point moves them 5 points up on the Senators for the 3rd seed in the Atlantic Division.
There is nothing happening tonight that would affect the Senators in either a positive or negative way, with just 3 games and the Flyers being the only Eastern Conference team in action. The Flyers trail the Senators by 11 points with just 8 games remaining, so if they become a factor the Senators will be in real trouble.