This is a situation that I have been turning over in my head for a few weeks now, basically since Andrew Hammond won his 10th game in a row and the needle started to move from "flash in the pan" to something a little more, yet still not sure exactly what. Then it became even more complicated around the time the Senators made the short list for Boston University Senior Matt O'Connor.
What do the Ottawa Senators do with their goaltending situation? Lets start by looking at the players at the table:
Fist off, you have Craig Anderson - the Veteran. He has been a Senator for 4 full seasons, plus part of a fifth. When he is hot, there is almost nobody better in the league, and he is at his best the more shots he faces. However, he has also shown stretches of inconsistency that has cost the Senators on more than a couple of occasions. He has also shown a penchant for injuries and hasn't always been the quickest to recover.
Anderson is the only proven commodity in the net, and you know what he is going to give you most nights.
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Up next you have Robin Lehner - the Heir Apparent. He has been waiting in the wings, patient at times, not so patiently at others, for his opportunity. He has a Calder Cup MVP from Binghamton's 2011 AHL championship, but hasn't really taken the Senators' starting job by the throat when given multiple opportunities. Further clouding the situation is the slow recovery from the concussion that may hamper the Senators' ability to really do what they might want to do.
Lehner has the tools, he just needs to show that he can do it at the NHL level over the long term.
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Next, I give you Andrew Hammond - the Upstart. There hasn't been a goalie with less hype that has created more of a stir in a short period of time in the NHL, probably ever. Undrafted, with a less than mediocre college career on a so-so team in Bowling Green, and then very pedestrian numbers in two AHL seasons. Really, the only reason he was signed as a free agent out of college was because Ottawa needed someone in the AHL after the Senators traded Ben Bishop to Tampa and brought Lehner up to be Anderson's full time backup. Fast forward a year and a half, and again out of desperation, Hammond got a chance to play in the NHL as a 27 year old. He seized the opportunity and 23 starts later, a 20-1-2 record with 1.79 GAA and .941 SP has created a huge problem for the Senators. Then a slow start to the playoff series had him on the bench while Anderson took over and nearly stole the series from Montreal, putting Hammond's status in doubt.
In poker they say all you need is "a chip and a chair", and Hammond took that chair and played it into a one-way deal, if not in Ottawa then somewhere else. --
Last but not least you have Matt O'Connor - the Wildcard. O'Connor is the most highly touted NCAA free agent goalie in some time, maybe ever. Highly sought after, O'Connor has narrowed his list down to 4 teams - Rangers, Oilers, Canucks and Senators. There is a lot to drool about because of his size and ability, but free agent signings like this are always a crap shoot, goalie or not, at best. O'Connor wants to be in a place where he can compete for an NHL job before too long, where there isn't much goaltending depth.
Ottawa has their hat in the ring, but in the end the decision will be O'Connor's to make.
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Now that those cards are on the table, what direction do the Senators want to go? Byran Murray stated at his end of the season address that he will be making an offer to Hammond, and if he accepts it then one of Lehner or Anderson will be dealt. This also opens the door a crack wider to lure O'Connor into the system because that will be one less body for him to have to leapfrog to get to his goal.
For my money, Hammond showed that he can, at the very least, be a capable backup in the NHL. Even if his numbers weren't great in Binghamton, the poise and character he showed in the past two months gives me confidence that even if he can't be a 50 or 60 game goalie, he can handle the 20-25 he would be expected to play as a backup (not that he is going to win 87% if his starts like he did this season).
So if Hammond accepts the deal offered, you pencil him in as your #2, with the option there for him to show he is for real, not a flash in the pan and become your #1 or 1A.
So that begs the question, who goes into the season as #1?
One way to look at it is which goalie gets you more on the trade market? Right now, the way Anderson finished up, it would be him. If the Senators want to bring in that top 6 forward that Murray alluded to, Anderson could be part of a package to get him. Also, as the team salary is going up because of raises already handed out and those to come to current RFA's (in addition to at least one if not two buyouts), keeping Lehner and trading Anderson saves $2M in cap space and even more in real dollars at least for the next two years of Anderson's deal.
Lehner could also be used as a part of a package to get another piece, because at 23 he is still not in his prime and has pedigree. I think the proven ability of Anderson nets more than the potential of Lehner, with the current injury also playing a factor.
All in all, it will come down to the faith that Murray and the staff have in Lehner to become "the man" combined with their belief that Hammond's play wasn't a one-off. At least for the latter, you have to think that they believe he is a legit NHL goalie if they are going to offer him a one-way deal with the promise to move someone to make room for him.
Whatever happens, it might have to happen quick. Hammond's decision might have to come first, followed by O'Connor's (which is apparently a couple of weeks away). Once they know how many cards they have in their hand for the longer term, then they can decide which ones they want to put into play.
Personally I think Hammond will re-sign in Ottawa, (my guess would be around 2 years and $2M total). O'Connor, if he wants to play now should go to Edmonton (but who really wants to go to Edmonton at this point in time), but it is anyone's guess what will happen with him. It would be a nice move for depth, but if he goes elsewhere I wouldn't lose much sleep over it.
I would be almost a comfortable with the pairing of Leher-Hammond as I would be Anderson-Hammond, because I don't think the drop-off is quite as substantial as the stats would indicate and Lehner is still in the upswing of his learning curve. And the $2M saved could be spent elsewhere.
Anderson would be a nice fit, and immediate fix, in a lot of markets with suspect goaltending. For example, and the most widely anticipated move is that he could finally end up in Edmonton if Murray can convince Peter Chiarelli to part with either Jordan Eberle or Taylor Hall. The Oil need someone that can stop the bleeding now, because they haven't had NHL goaltending in some time. Edmonton might get O'Connor as well, but if I were them I wouldn't want to throw him into that fire right away.
So there it is, the Senators should trade Craig Anderson and go with Lehner and Hammond as their tandem next season. If O'Connor does sign in Ottawa that is gravy and a good thing for the future, but shouldn't impact the team next season, barring injury. If they don't get O'Connor they can sign one of any number of veterans to be in Binghamton with the potential to get called up in case of injury.
A lot of it isn't in their hands at the moment. If Hammond decides he would rather test free agency and O'Connor doesn't sign, then the status quo of Anderson-Lehner, even though it would be sort of forced on them, is not a bad option either.
There you have it, clear as mud!