For those not Canes-inclined, please feel free to skip down a bit past my advertisement of sorts.
For regular readers and Canes fans, I am excited to announce that last night I soft-launched a Kickstarter campaign to start an independent web site that will cover the Canes.
I would greatly appreciate your help with funding obviously but also help spreading the word through social media, email, backyard barbecues or whatever else since some Caniacs are away from hockey for the long summer.
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When your team does not make the playoffs, the hockey offseason is incredibly long. Sure there are the playoffs and especially the most conference finals were phenomenal. But it’s not the same. Right after the season ends, things turn to the draft that is still two months away. It is funny how that can be a twisting turning road over the weeks leading up to it.
When I wrote about it awhile back, I put one stake in the sand in saying that I would be shocked to see either of two things happen.
1) I would be shocked if the Canes trade the #5 overall pick as part of a trade for roster players. The Canes desperately need young talent and in the form of great players on inexpensive entry level contracts. No way will Ron Francis trade what should be a good young player real soon for a $3-5M type of player that just makes the Canes budget challenges worse.
2) I would be shocked if the Canes trade the #5 overall pick to move down significantly to get more picks. In a deep draft with a bunch of top-end talent (up to five players who could be #1 overall in a weaker year), it does not make sense to trade a nearly sure thing at #5 for a bigger collection of maybes. There is one exception. IF (and only if), Ron Francis and the Canes scouts rate one of the players projected for more like 8-10 as the best available at #5 (which is possible given the depth in this year’s draft), then just maybe Francis would trade down only a couple of spots to get the player he wants anyway and collect something extra. I think that scenario is possible but a long shot because you just do not know how long the player you want will last.
Nothing is impossible and Canes GM Ron Francis has not really tipped his hat in terms of what he hopes to do with the #5 pick, so who knows. But I will be surprised if either of the above scenarios happens.
So with squashing all of the “We’ll give you ___ for the #5 comments… aside (and also realizing that it will pop up anyway), let’s revisit the Canes situation at #5.
It is a given that McDavid and Eichel will go first and second. But from everything I read, it is a crap shoot after that. Though there is occasional dissension in the rankings (biggest one being Craig Button dropping Hanafin to 12th best available for the draft in this article), most people still have defenseman Noah Hanifin, center Dylan Strome and right wing/center Mitch Marner as the second tier. If these players are as good as advertised, I think Francis is content to sit at #5, not have the pressure of making a big choice amongst the three and taking whoever falls to him.
But here are a couple random thoughts on preference and wild card scenarios:
--A center bias? With Eric Staal mostly moved to the wing in 2014-15, might Francis prefer Strome who has a decent chance to step into the 2nd line center hole created when the Staals play on the same line? Especially with Jordan Staal’s defensive leaning, might Francis really want to add another big, scoring NHL center. Francis was a center himself obviously and part of a number of successful teams that were strong down the middle.
--I think the Hanifin/Provorov situation is interesting especially in light of Craig Button’s rankings. Almost everything I read ranks Hanifin tightly in the #3-#5 second tier and Provorov close behind in the next tier from #6-#9. But when you read the more detailed scouting reports and analysis, the majority of scouts seem to think that that Ivan Provorov is the most NHL ready defenseman and might be able to step into the NHL as early as next season. So what does that mean? I think what it means is this. Most of the experts rank Hanifin higher because he ultimately has a higher ceiling potential-wise. But those who rate Provorov as the most NHL-ready defenseman must think his game is a bit more developed at this point in time.
The past two years have seen the first and most NHL-ready defenseman (Aaron Ekblad in 2014 and Seth Jones in 2013) taken in the draft jump immediately to the NHL and look pretty good in the process. Is it possible that Ivan Provorov is that player in a deep 2015 draft and not Noah Hanifin? But if Hanifin has a much higher upside a couple years out, who cares anyway? If Strome and Marner go #3 and #4, it could be real interesting to see what Francis does at #5.
--Does Dylan Strome’s shielded slot as a 2nd-line center behind an attention-grabbing Connor McDavid make anyone else a little nervous? Strome’s stint of similarly solid and productive play when McDavid was injured provides comfort, but he did spend a significant part of his season with opposing coaches trying to get their best players on the ice opposite McDavid not Strome.
--Is too much being made of Mitch Marner’s size? I think so. Bigger is better than smaller, all other things being equal. But that’s the thing; all other things are not often equal. The 2015 playoffs, where we are now and the Conn Smythe race makes it abundantly clear to anyone who is watching. Tyler Johnson, all 5-9, 175 pounds of him, is probably the frontrunner to win the playoff MVP hardware if Tampa prevails in the finals. And if you watch his game, it is fairly simple. Yes, he has skill and finishing ability, but watch also how much time he spends going to or hanging out between the circles and near the crease where goals happen. He plays like Brian Gionta in his prime when he was lighting up the NHL for 20-30 goals every year and peaked at 48 in 2005-06. At a more basic level, Tampa has size on the blue line, but they are small (and FAST/SKILLED) at forward. Only Morrow and Boyle tip the scales at more than 200 pounds at forward. The Chicago Conn Smythe picture is murkier, but if 5-10 and 178-pound Patrick Kane rises up and leads the Blackhawks to victory in the Finals, he could very well become the only active player with two such awards and the first since Patrick Roy almost 15 years ago. Chicago is a bit bigger at forward, but they also lean speed/skill over size/grit across their roster.
Put more simply: If Mitch Marner is the best player available when the Canes pick at #5, I adjust none for the size thing. I just pick him.
So when you net it all out, I think Francis sits in a spot where you just cannot overthink it. He has a high pick in a deep draft. Take the best available at #5 and continue building for the future.
What say you Canes fans? Will you join me in building something great for our Canes community? Do you think the second tier with Marner, Strome and Hanifin is set? Or do you think maybe those three are not automatically #3-#5? Is there any decision to be made in terms of best defenseman in the draft if Hanifin slips to #5 or is he it?
Twitter=@CarolinaMatt63
Go Canes!