Today it came with a bit of surprise that Morgan Reilly and Nazem Kadri of the Maple Leafs had each signed 6 year extensions. The Reilly deal is an AAV of 5 million and Kadri has an AAV of 4.5 million. That’s smooth negotiating by Loophole Lou.
While I’m not going to discuss whether they are good deals or not (they are) it’s worth noting that Reilly was taken a few picks before Trouba in the 2012 draft and Kadri was taken 7th overall two years before Scheifele. It’s also important to note these deals because both Trouba and Scheifele are RFA players who are set to get a large increase in salary soon.
Here;s the Warrior breakdown between Reilly and Trouba.
The thing that Jets fans will know and notice first is the amount of time Trouba has spent with Mark Stuart, arguably one the worst defensemen in the league. Reilly has not had near the anchor to lug around during his career. What you do see is that they are very similar players stats wise and that that their strengths and weaknesses are much the same.
So if Reilly has an AAV of 5 million will Trouba settle for that because you know ‘same-same but different’? Not likely and let’s be honest there’s a Winnipeg tax that will come with Trouba’s deal. How much that tax is remains to be seen.
My prediction: Trouba at 7 years for 5.3 million AAV per year. 3.5, 4, 5.5, 5.5, 6.5, 6.5, 5.6 for 37.1 million total.
Sheifele and Kadri also present a similar scenario when compared like Reilly and Trouba. Take a look below that their Warrior chart and see again where the strengths and weaknesses lie.
Again, these two are too much alike from a statistical representation of their play. Now consider the hard raw numbers. In 227 games played Scheifele has 58 goals and 87 assists for 145 points and .638 pts/gm. For Kadri he stands at 326 games with 81 goals 116 assists for 197 points and .604 pts/gm
When looking a bit deeper we can see that during even strength for their careers Scheifele just edges Kadri in pts/60 at 1.9 vs 1.7. If we look at the same stat in all situations it gets even closer a 2.2 vs 2.1 pts/60 with Scheifele again just ahead.
This deal Kadri just signed might make Chevy and Chipman crack some champagne with breakfast. It’s good news and while I don’t think they can lock Scheifele up for the same amount without going to a bridge deal first I could see them trying the max term at 8 years. This is due to how much they appreciate who and what Mark Scheifele is.
So assume there is also a Winnipeg tax, no matter how great it is that Scheifele likes Winnipeg and here’s my prediction. 8 years AAV 5.25 3, 4.5, 5, 7, 7, 5.5, 5, 5 for 42 million total.
Anything lower on thees two is pure gravy for True North and should be heralded as a success. The deal Toronto gave sets a fair and achievable bar for the Jets and both Trouba and Scheifele. Where there could be some, and probably will be, disparity in my numbers is how the team and agents value the UFA years and where the salary should be in the years.