Yesterday Adam Gretz of CBSSports.com wrote an extremely informative piece that I encourage everybody to check out. You can find that article here
Basically the article broke down when a hockey player's goal scoring prime is. The answer is going to be lower than what some people think.
I went back and examined the careers of the top 100 goal scorers in NHL history and looked at when they had their best goal-scoring seasons (I used goals-per-game averages in seasons with a minimum of 30 games played instead of raw goal numbers). The average age was just barely over 25, with the majority of the best seasons coming before a player's age-25 season. There were a couple of random outliers -- mainly from the 1950s and the Original Six era -- with players who ended up having their best seasons in their early-to-mid 30s, but for the most part it was right around, or before, age 25.
Sidney Crosby is 27 and Evgeni Malkin is 28. They are not considered in their goal scoring prime anymore. Don't' confuse this with not being great players, they are certainly both still that (as Gretz also alluded to). It just means that you should temper what your goal output expectations are for them. What they did in the past is not incredibly likely to continue.
Doesn't matter the era, or what team they played for, or who it was, the meaty part of a goal-scorer's career is somewhere between the ages of 22 and 26, and then after that, there is an obvious drop.
With that said. It is a little bit scary to think about it this way. Did Ray Shero piss away Crosby and Malkin's prime? The combination of bad goaltending and low skilled depth was too much to overcome even with Sid and Geno in the heart of their prime.
I would even go a step further and say that the Penguins were fortunate to capture their one Stanley Cup championship considering who they beat in the Final. For my money the 2007-08 Red Wings are the best team of the cap era and the 2008-09 version isn't that far behind.
The encouraging news? Henrik Zetterberg was 27/28 years old in those two Stanley Cup Finals and Pavel Datsyuk was 29/30 years old. The key for Detroit was that their roster wasn't top heavy and had loads of skilled/ playable depth. No matter what line Detroit threw out there they were capable hockey players. This eased the burden on the two star forwards.
Shero's teams towards the end of his tenure did not. The Penguins took a step in the right direction this past offseason in that regard.
Currently Malkin is on pace for 37 goals and Crosby is on an 82 game pace of only 25 goals.
Both players are still driving possession at an elite level and should still be considered two of the best players on the planet. Moving forward they are just going to need a little bit more help in the goal department. That means you can't roster plugs like Craig Adams and Zach Sill who are void of any offensive ability at all.
Trading for David Perron was a great move for the Penguins when you digest information like this. It would probably in their best interest to extend him as well.
There are other positives moving forward that will help the Penguins as well as Crosby and Malkin.
They already signed their big contracts. Other teams are going to have to start shelling out big money to their star players. It has happened with Toews,Kane, Getzlaf, Perry, Giroux and Kessel. It will continue to happen with players like Stamkos and Kopitar. Crosby and Malkin's cap hits are not an issue.
The cap may not rise drastically each year but it certainly isn't going to drop, even if there are issues with the Canadian dollar.
Lastly, there has never been more information available to evaluate players. There is no longer a valid excuse for employing completely useless hockey players, I repeat no excuse. This is why Crosby and Malkin's cap hits are not an issue. You don't have to spend big bucks to fill out your bottom line with capable players. It just so happens that a lot of teams don't use the data available proper and end up with really terrible players on their roster.
Crosby and Malkin are still going to be great players for a long time. Just responsibly temper your expectations in the goal department moving forward.
Thanks for reading!
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