Yesterday we (squeamishly) looked at the 2015 UFA class in search of potential replacements for Antti Niemi. If you missed it, consider yourself lucky.
Today we move on to a group of seven goaltenders that could be available via trade to solve the problem in the crease. Not all of these goalies are great options either, but this list is much better than yesterday’s. Just like yesterday I’ve kept Niemi around for comparison.
Chart time. All numbers from here on out are at 5v5.
First up is a bubble beauty from war-on-ice.com. Y-axis is high danger save percentage, X-axis is unadjusted save percentage, size of the bubble is TOI (or sample size comparatively to each other) and color is shots against (blue=more, red=less).
Next we have 5v5 save percentage and adjusted-save percentage stacked up next to each other in bars just to see the difference in increase. Here’s the definition for adjusted-save percentage from war-on-ice.com’s glossar:
AdjustedSvPct: Adjusted save percentage; this adjusts for the fact that some teams give up more high-quality shots, while others give up more low-quality shots. This is the weighted-average of SvPctHigh, SvPctMed, and SvPctLow, where the weights correspond to the league-wide percentage of shots from each of those areas. In other words, this is a goalies save percentage if they faced a league average proportion of shots from each of the three shooting zones (high, medium, and low probability of success).
Finally, here are the seven goalies + Niemi ranked 1-8 in save percentage and adjusted-save percentage. There are a few changes from one to the other, but nothing really drastic.
Alright, let’s get rid of the bottom four goaltenders right away.
Eddie Lack, Brian Elliot, Robin Lehner and, of course, Antti Niemi – goodbye.
Elliot and Lack are at least in the same ballpark as Niemi – and I’d use Elliot as a stopgap much like Neuvirth in a pinch – but Lehner isn’t even in the ballpark’s parking lot. He’s somewhere down the street. I'm interested in him like I'm interested in being stung by a wasp.
Thoughts On The Top Four
Jimmy Howard
Now, odds are the Red Wings aren’t going to trade Jimmy Howard this off-season, but he stacks up pretty well in the group. The problem with Howard is he just makes too much money. Solid goaltending can be had for cheaper than $5.3 per season. He’s a significant upgrade over Niemi, no doubt, but they could pay a goaltender a million or two less to do the same job.
I’d pass on Howard, if he was available, but his numbers are definitely solid.
Cam Talbot
Talbot enjoys the smallest sample size of everyone, making him the biggest risk. His numbers are tops in all categories, so it could be a risk worth taking. Conversely, though, a string of ten bad games to start the season would demolish his numbers.
Talbot would be my second choice for attempting to find a guy for the future simply because his sample of work is so small. He clearly has talent with the New York Rangers in front of him, but the last thing I’d want the Sharks to do is pull an Edmonton.
Craig Anderson
I’ve touched on Anderson in previous blogs lately so I won’t be a dead horse, too much. Anderson is a solid starter with great numbers – plain and simple. Is he a future goalie? Absolutely not, but he is definitely a now goalie.
The issue with Anderson is Bryan Murray’s delusional asking prices for goaltenders. If that comes down and the Sharks can’t grab the next goalie we talk about then Anderson is a guy they should consider.
Jonathan Bernier
Ah, finally. Back to Bernier.
Here’s your guy, Sharks fans. Solid numbers on a terrible team - in the most critical market for hockey in the world.
Bernier gets the usual treatment from fans everywhere because he’s a Toronto Maple Leaf. That means that because he puts that jersey on he’s garbage. That’s just the way things go for anyone associated with Toronto.
He’s a great goaltender – and until the Leafs had their biblical collapse as a group in January-April, his numbers for this same time-frame were up with the elite goaltenders around the league.
Toronto is listening to offers on almost everyone in the organization and I doubt any reasonable offer will be turned down. Jonathan Bernier is a goalie for the now and the future and should be the number one choice for Doug Wilson moving forward with this team.
Summary:
Trade for Jonathan Bernier. If that falls through, consider the path and decide if Cam Talbot is your guy. If there’s a shred of doubt, and you want to win now, trade for Anderson.
If you like to gamble on a high risk high reward type scenario, go grab Talbot.
Who do you want Sharks fans? Anyone not on the list that you'd rather have?
Thanks for reading.