The Avalanche enter the NHL All-Star break believing they can make a run for a playoff spot in the final 34 regular-season games.
"This rest is only going to bring more excitement for coming back," Ryan O'Reilly said. "I think we've been playing good hockey and if we keep this up we're going to be in a great spot."
The Avalanche have gone 11-5-4 since Dec. 11 and 7-2-1 in the past 10 home games to climb within three points of Calgary for the second wild-card playoff position in the Western Conference.
They're in 10th place in the West with a 20-18-10 record and 50 points, but they've played one more game than the Flames, who own a significant lead (22-14) in non-shootout wins, the determining factor in case of ties when the season ends.
Another problem: Los Angeles is ninth, two points ahead of the Avalanche, and does anyone believe the defending Stanley Cup champs won't make the playoffs? The Kings also have played one fewer game than the Avalanche and lead 19-14 in non-shootout wins.
Winnipeg? The Jets went into the break on a 6-0-1 roll that included wins against Chicago and L.A. Not only are the Jets holding the first wild-card spot with 60 points and 22 non-shootout wins, they're just five points behind Central Division-leading Nashville.
Speaking of Nashville, the Avalanche will play the Predators twice next week, Tuesday in Music City and Friday at the Pepsi Center. They'll be without defenseman Erik Johnson for at least one game because he pulled out of the All-Star Game events. The Avalanche made the announcement Thursday on their web site, saying he has a "lower-body injury."
Johnson had been skipping occasional practices and morning skates because he averages a team-high 24:25 in ice time, but he obviously also was nursing an undisclosed injury. NHL rules stipulate a player who drops out of the All-Star Game must miss his team's next game, a rule that prevents players from missing the game for bogus reasons.
Johnson went on Twitter to express his regrets:
Wish I didn't have to miss the All star wknd, but this @Avalanche team & my health come first, & are most important. Thanks for the support.
— Erik Johnson (@6ErikJohnson) January 23, 2015The Avalanche scratched forward Daniel Briere and dressed seven defensemen for Wednesday's 3-2 shootout win against Boston. Zach Redmond was in the lineup after being a healthy scratch for the previous 12 games.
"With the situation with EJ missing practice, we just don't want to take a chance," coach Patrick Roy said, adding that Redmond needed to play. Johnson still played 22:57, more than any other Avalanche defenseman. Because of the All-Star break, the extent of his injury won't be known until the Avalanche practice again Monday afternoon.
The Avalanche will play 27 of the final 34 games against Western opponents: Nashville (four games), Dallas (three), Los Angeles (three), Minnesota (three), Anaheim (two), Arizona (two), Calgary (two), Chicago (two), Edmonton (two), Winnipeg (two), San Jose (one) and Vancouver (one).
They'll play Buffalo, Columbus, Detroit, New Jersey, New York Rangers, Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay once each.
"There's a lot of work to be done, but I like the direction we're going," Roy said. "We're playing very well defensively. If we continue to keep the scores low, I truly believe that things will click offensively for us eventually.
"At home we have to win our games. Every game we play at home we have to find a way to win. It's very important when you're chasing teams in the standings, you need to find ways to win those games."
The Avalanche's offensive problems have been well documented. Alex Tanguay (13 goals, 19 assists) has been the team's most consistent forward and Jarome Iginla (14 goals, 17 assists) has seven goals and three assists in the past 10 games.
But Matt Duchene, Gabriel Landeskog and Nathan MacKinnon need to pick up the pace if this team is going to make the playoffs for the second year in a row.
(Personally, I think O'Reilly is too valuable to trade, though he obviously can't be allowed to walk for nothing as an unrestricted free agent after next season. He got off to a terrible start but has played really well during the Avalanche's 11-5-4 run, not a coincidence. He has five goals, six assists and a plus-8 rating in this stretch while being a plus or even player in 18 of the 20 games. He kills penalties, takes faceoffs and is solid in the defensive end.)
The power play has been awful, 3-for-32 in the past 11 games, and has plummeted to 28th in the league. Though erratic, the penalty killing is seventh.
"Obviously we're a little bit disappointed in how we move the puck and how we compete to get the puck on the power play," Roy said.
Goalie Seymon Varlamov has played in 13 of the Avalanche's 15 games since returning from his third groin injury, his longest stretch this season, a good sign that he's fully recovered. He's played well, too, posting an 8-4-1 record with two shutouts and a 2.05 goals-against average in this span.
The Avalanche have to make a decision on what to do about the backup position. Will it be Calvin Pickard, who was reassigned to Lake Erie in the AHL during the All-Star break, or Reto Berra, who is completing his two-week "conditioning" assignment with the Monsters?
As for the Avalanche defense, well, it is what it is. These guys, with help from the forwards, have to do a better job of clearing the zone and cutting down on the number of shots -- and quality chances -- the goalies too often face. Opponents have had 40 or more shots 11 times and between 35 and 39 shots in nine other games.