Let's get this out of the way right now. Pavelec was good last night, real good and real lucky. It's the kind of combination goalies need now and then and the Czech netminder had it Texas size- BIG. The problem is who wants to rely on that kind of performance being repeatable?
There is the Pavelec conundrum for fans in Winnipeg. They really do want the guy to play well, they want him to win because when he does it means good things happen for the fans. They feel positive about the team, the goalie and so on. So when he plays like he did last night the pessimists are caught in a bind, yours truly included, and this is the conundrum.
Here's his recent game record, notice the W/L column and the save % column.
Praising the guy does not mean your opinion and analysis have changed, it means you are appreciating his success when it happens and really, it hasn't been happening much. For the optimists, seeing long time pessimists heap praise on a performance like that does not mean they were wrong and you are right.
The problem is that one performance does not outweigh a careers history of mediocre results.
Here's where both the pessimist and optimists should get together and ask some questions:
1. Is this kind of performance repeatable? 2. Is it a result of the poor effort from skaters in front of him? 3. Do you want your goalie to have to play that kind of game every night in order to earn a win? 4. Is the current rotation of games favourable to Pavelec?
My agenda and beliefs on Pavelec are well documented and known I think he's a back up maybe a bit more than that traditional role. I do believe Maurice is migrating him to that point because he can but is doing so with caution so as not to overwhelm Hutchinson. In fact Maurice may be doing exactly what needed not to happen to Pavelec.
Here's the career stats for Pavelec. Notice the start of his NHL appearances; 42 then 58 games before 68 with Jets in their inaugural season. There was no easing Pavelec in despite some decent workload in the AHL. The other problem when looking back is Pavelec never really delivered what Hutchinson has done so far. It's why the pessimists hold fast in their views.
The pace so far has Pavelec behind the best team he's played with in his NHL career and his stats are only improved by .07 beyond his career average. In comparison Hutchinson is on pace to start 31 games this season and that would put him closer to Pavelec's first significant tenure in the NHL of 42 games. Right now Hutch is near the top of the league in GAA and Save % and it's a marked difference from where Pavelec was as he established himself in the NHL.
Furthermore, take a look at the career statistics for Hutchinson in any league he's played- only once has he ever posted a save % below Pavelec's NHL career average.
The fact is, Dallas is a falling star right now they played their back up and then launched an all out desperate assault on the Jets for two periods. Pavelec stood his ground and helped his team win. That's worthy of praise and positive acknowledgement but it's more likely seeing that from Pavelec again anytime soon is not going to happen. That's a good thing because not goalie deserves the support he got last night, ever.
Speaking of support many were looking at Evander Kane's minutes last night. They were low but did he make an impact in the third period? Kane is starting to feel 'it' a bit lately with goals in three straight games. He's finding a bit more room and he's going to where he was traditionally scored a lot of goals, driving the net.
Pavelec and Kane are the two biggest enigmas on this team and last night both deserved some love and praise for what they did without the conditions that so often come from Jets fans. Anyone want to guess what the storyline is tomorrow?