Pav or Hutch tonight vs Blues?
It’s the debate that drives fans nuts but once again it’s front and centre and could not come at a more critical time. Last night Pavelec did the improbable and shut out the Wild at home. Consider that the Wild are only a hair above the perilous playoff position the Jets are in and now face Chicago, St. Louis and Nashville on the road to close out the season.
Before looking forward consider this too, last night was the final game for the Wild at home and the crowd there made you wonder how many fans realized it was the final home game? It was almost a split group between Jets and Wild.
What happened last night has created the buzz about the game tonight- who starts in net again the Blues? Pavelec could not have played better and despite him seeing less shots than Dubnyk he may have faced some tougher situation with all the scrambles and chaos in front of him. He earned the right to make tonight’s starting goalie decision a debate.
So who starts?
What many have said today and last night is that Pavelec deserves the chance due to hot hand, good record against the Blues, and this final 3 games being like a playoff series- you go with the goalie playing the best. However let’s look back to that night in St. Louis on March 10, a 5-4 loss where Pavelec came in to play phenomenal right up until the last 30 seconds. When it came time to face the Blues at home the next week he got hiss hot at redemption. Does Hutchinson not deserve his?
Pavelec’s struggles in back-to-back games are well known and are much like the ones he has in afternoon games. Despite beating Vancouver on Saturday afternoon that was far from a great performance from Pavelec but there’s more to that game. As Gary Lawless said on his radio show yesterday Pavelec had been sick for three days that week and had a total of 3 bananas plus fluid in his stomach before suiting up on Saturday. What that a hunch by Maurice, a gamble or a bit of both? Does he want to do that again?
If Hutchinson plays, and wins, tonight against the Blues would it change anything for the final two games? Probably not as Pavelec would start against the Avs on Thursday and depending on the outcome and standings perhaps again on Saturday versus Calgary. But if Pavelec starts tonight it becomes who on Thursday and Saturday? If Maurice is going to be cautious with his rotation then allowing Hutch a chance tonight makes some sense.
What we have seen this season is Maurice running with the goalie who is playing better but that can switch in dramatic fashion in Winnipeg. Right now the better goalie is Pavelec but did earning two points in Minnesota change anything? It should and that is the option of playing Hutch in a place where he got shelled last time. He deserves his redemption opportunity too and poses no threat to the Jets.
As neither goalie has been able to establish himself as the clear number one for any significant length of time this season giving Hutch some ice time, perhaps on short leash, seems fair if not prudent. It does not have to change anything for the final two games other than give the coach and team some comfort or nerves. Since Pavelec relieved Hutch in St. Louis he has 11 games and a .938 save %. The previous 11 games he appeared in Pavelec posted a .916 save %, also .08 over his career average but there’s one issue. The last 11 games he saw 322 shots compared to 302 in the 11 game stretch before St. Louis- what skews those numbers in the later 11 games or BSL (before St. Louis) is that there were two shutouts in relief on 3 and 4 shots against. Take out those two games and replace them with the next two in the list of games played he has a .889 save %.
So who is the real Pavelec- the .938 goalie of the .889 one? If you break the two numbers down to the average you get .913 and that just might be what he is as his average this season is .917.
In fairness the same scenario should be broken down for Hutchinson to compare but that might be irrelevant for the decision. While this space has been harsh on Pavelec over the years he deserves praise when warranted and last night he deserved it, but he also deserved a shot at redemption and so does Hutch.
If Pavelec is getting his chance to run with the number one spot then give him the best chance to succeed and the numbers for him and league history says ‘stay away from back-to-back games’. With no Steen or Tarasenko or Bortuzzo should Maurice be as worried about bringing Hutch back in?
It might not matter who plays though because of the group in front can’t do what they did last night and against Vancouver neither goalie is likely to save them. It’s more than just the goaltender debate but right now that’s all Jets fans seem to want to focus on. Perhaps giving some love to the skaters might keep heads a bit more level as those players did their job too last night, not just Pavelec.
That might be the gist of the issue though for fans; when Pavelec is exceptional they want and hope for more, just like they did with Hutch when he was on a roll. The fact is neither have been able to sustain that roll and it’s why fans, and Maurice, can’t be totally comfortable and forget the past. It’s also why Hutch should start because history says Pavelec might be coming to the end of a good run, or maybe not. That’s why he can still play in the next two games.