For anyone who checked out at the end of the regular season, the tidbit of real Canes news this week was that the Canes landed in the #5 slot for the 2015 NHL draft, right where they finished the season. Not winning the McDavid lottery with the 8.5% chance was disappointing, but the team will get a very good player at #5 in a deep draft. I will give my thoughts on the draft in a later blog.
In my next couple blogs, I will put forward my thoughts on 2 things swirling amidst the disappointment of another playoff miss.
* What to do with Alexander Semin. * Eric Staal and the C.
I am late to the party as regular Canes blog and media outlets jumped on the Alexander Semin story almost before the paint had dried on the 2014-15 season.
If you scroll down to what is currently the 2nd post at Section 328 HERE, Tom Edwards posted his thoughts on the relevance of salary in evaluating Semin. I disagree with Tom on this 1 (see below), but always appreciate the good insight from Tom and the others at Section 328. If you like podcasts mixed with snark, edge and beer with enough hockey that it is a hockey blog but not so much that you feel like you could have just done sports talk radio, I also recommend their regular podcasts.
HERE Brian LeBlanc at Canes Country makes a strong case for just ending the bad relationship. There is a part of me that could go for this, but unless the market for an $7M 19-point forward is much greater than I would guess, I just don't see this as workable except the buyout option which I vote against (again see below).
Finally, Luke DeCock from The News & Observer makes the case HERE for just recognizing there is no trade to be had and buying him to move on and send a message. I don't agree with this either.
So what is my take?
My take is this:
1) I would gladly trade him for any kind of decent return that does not involve getting nothing in return and still eating half of his salary, but I am very skeptical that this is possible.
2) Though I might consider it after another horrible season, buyouts just do not make financial sense for the Hurricanes franchise right now even in the case of Alexander Semin.
3) I would seriously consider an investment in a sports psychiatrist/counselor who helps players who once played at a high level and then fell far from it seemingly with a lack of confidence component. It seemingly cannot hurt at this point. The goal is to see if he can right the ship with a fresh start mentally and season-wise in 2015-16.
So let me work from easiest to hardest. As much as I think it might be best for all for the Hurricanes and Alexander Semin to just part ways and get a fresh start next season, a buyout just does not make sense when you look at the $. The money gets spread out over a longer term, but to drop Semin the Canes would be on the hook for 2/3 of his remaining salary. So when you do the math, the Canes would still pay $4.7M of his salary for 3 years (though spread over 6) and save only $2.3M per season. So the question becomes would you rather have $2.3M/year in cash (the amount you would save) to find a top 6 forward? Or would you rather take your chances that Alexander Semin rebounds? At least for another season, I would rather take my chances. What are you really going to get on the free market for $2.3M? Jiri Tlusty probably prices out at $3-3.5M. If Alexander Semin rebounds to even 60% of his potential ceiling, he is better than whoever the Canes might sign for a similar price this summer. And it is not like the Canes who are again minus playoff money and are seeing another drop in season ticket renewals can just take extra money out of their pocket to write off this problem and find another high-end player.
The trade possibility is interesting, but the only way it would happen is if the Canes take another bad contract back or eat a bunch of salary. At the point where they eat a bunch of salary, it starts to look like the buyout option that just does not work financially. And I am not a big fan of taking on another bad contract that is even longer than Semin's 3 years just to get rid of Semin. So that makes options like Mike Richards, Phil Kessel, etc. unenticing. The 1 name that does interest me is Dion Phaneuf, but his stock is not as low as Semin's so I don't see that happening unless it is a bigger deal.
So while there are no guarantees that it will lead to anything good, I think the best option at least short-term is to see if an off-season reset can help Alexander Semin find something even remotely close to the level of play closer to his potential ceiling.
Eager to spill out almost everything that I could blog about Alexander Semin, so I can move on the things that are more fun, let me offer my 2 cents on a couple other Alexander Semin topics.
--On the unfairness of evaluating players based on their salary (per the Section 328 blog linked above). I don't get this. Hockey is very much a game of players with different roles that come with wildly different salaries and responsibilities/expectations. Jay McClement had a great year -- for a 4th line center. This importantly matches up to his $1.5M salary that is 4th-line appropriate. He scored 7 goals which is plenty for his role. He was a key part of a very good penalty kill unit. To try to compare him to Eric or Jordan Staal (also centers...at least sometimes with Eric) is apples and oranges. Whereas 7 goals was a pretty good output for McClement, it is nowhere near enough for Eric Staal or even Jordan Staal. So Alexander's role (and importantly his salary matches it) is that of a top 6 scoring wing. He didn't score. Say what you want about situation, injuries, possession stats or whatever else, he needs to score in his role for the Canes to be a good hockey team. He didn't. It is that simple for me.
--On how possibly to help him refind it for 2015-16. As bad as 2014-15 was, I do not at all think it is impossible that he rebounds. Confidence is something that can swing back positively just as quickly as it swung negatively. For me the biggest thing is trying to get him to play at a much higher pace. His best days in the NHL were on a Capitals team that flew up and down the ice and pressured the defense in front of them with speed and rapid puck movement. There was clearly an element to that when he, Jiri Tlusty and Eric Staal were firing on all cylinders in 2013-14. The puck went quickly from stick to stick and things happened. When I fast forward to his troubles over the past 2 seasons and then close my eyes to think about what I picture when I picture Alexander Semin, it's this...I picture him entering the offensive zone with the puck (a good start) then not having any great options offensively, then twirling or slowing up to try to buy time to make a play and then ultimately coughing up the puck when no real opportunity to do anything to create a scoring chance ever presents itself.
Alexander Semin plays with a mindset to hold the puck until he can make a good scoring chance. If one does not arise, things very often go awry because he seems to stubbornly refuse to just take a low probability shot, chuck the puck into the corner to get it deep, etc. While there is a balance to this that could benefit him, Semin's puck possession mindset is not all bad. I think the greatest potential to jumpstart his game out of the gate next season would be to get him on a line that can play with pace especially off the rush and offers a couple line mates who drive the net and present options to do something with pace sooner rather than later.
Next up I will offer my 2 cents on another topic that seems to make the rounds this time of year the past few years -- Eric Staal as the team captain.
What say you Canes fans? Is the painful financial hit worth it just to end the relationship? Is there a chance that Semin could rebound with a few months off and a new season reset? Am I crazy to think that a sports psychologist is not out of the question at this point? Does anyone think there could be a trade market for him that does not require giving him away for nothing and still eating 1/2 the contract?
Twitter=@CarolinaMatt63
Go Canes!