Big news in the NHL yesterday had the Los Angeles Kings putting Mike Richards on waivers. The fact Los Angeles did not use a compliance buyout on Richards over the summer was gross negligence on the part of Kings GM Dean Lombardi.
The signs were all there that pointed to a player in decline with diminishing returns. The fact that he has 5 more years after the 2014-15 season at 5.75M is crazy to think about.
This was a case where intangibles and interpersonal relationships got in the way of making a sound roster decision. The Kings aren’t the first and certainly not the last team that this will happen to.
So we know the contract is terrible value for Mike Richards, but is he a terrible player?
There are a few ways we can find out when analyzing a player objectively. One of the newer metrics that I like is dCorsi. I used this recently in another blog and as a refresher this is a stat that measures if a player is outperforming his role or underperforming in their role.
The stat takes what the expected Corsi would be for a league average player in their given role (using QoT, QoC, Zone starts etc…) and then compares them to what their actual numbers are. A player outperforming the league average player in that role will have a positive dCorsi and a player underperforming will have a negative dCorsi.
According to Steven Burtch (the creator):
A team that is being used "ideally" would theoretically have a dCorsi of zero (which is basically impossible due to the randomness inherent in the sport of hockey).
With that said, here is a little exercise I have put together. I have four players on the following chart. One is Mike Richards, the other three are connected to the Penguins, one of them being a former Penguin. Try and guess who they are.
While we are waiting for everyone to guess who each player is on the chart here is a Mike Richards video from yesteryear that shows him making a big hit.
That is an all-time Geno moment for me. Gotta love it.
Anyways, the answers to the chart above are as follows:
Player A: Jordan Staal Player B: Brandon Sutter Player C: Marcel Goc Player D: Mike Richards
Keep in mind this is how each player performed in the role they were given. A player cannot control what role the coach puts them in, only their performance in said role. All four players have played in a third line role in some capacity during this sample size. We have two players who outperform their role on a regular basis and two that don’t.
I did this exercise because the perception is that Mike Richards is over the hill and stinks now. Player B is touted by many as a very good third line center in the league. He is also likely to get a raise in his next contract as well as term. You don’t want to be the team that does that. He has a lower dCorsi than each player on the chart in every season except for 2011-12 when he had a higher dCorsi than the guy put on waivers yesterday.
Jordan Staal played in tougher competition than the other players, but he still killed it and outperformed what the average player would have done in his role. It is why he is one of the best in the league at what he does (shutting people down).
Perception is a funny thing and by having objective data you can get a clearer picture of what is actually happening on the ice. Mike Richards is a good lesson in avoiding talk about intangibles such as grit, compete level, and leadership and focusing on the on-ice product.
Mike Richards’ contract is nuclear. That is what makes him so unappealing right now. And since we are in a cap league relative value is always of the utmost importance.
Strip the contract away and just focus on the hockey part of things and Richards would actually be an improvement for the Penguins as their third line center, once again funny how that perception thing works.
Despite Richards being a potential upgrade for the Penguins in the short term he should not be considered. In fact he shouldn’t be considered by any team in the league with that contract. Even if the Kings took back salary you still have to deal with the fact he has 5 years(!) remaining on his deal.
Best wishes to Mike Richards but the deal he signed in Philadelphia makes him one of the more undesirable players to have on a roster right now. That is life in the cap world. Teams and executives should always be hunting down the best values. Mike Richards ain't one of them.
Thanks for reading!
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