FLYERS TO PICK 7TH IN 2015 NHL DRAFT
Entering Saturday's 2015 NHL Draft lottery, the Flyers had a 6.5 percent chance of winning the first overall selection and the opportunity to pick wunderkind prospect Connor McDavid. They also had a 23 percent chance of dropping from the seventh to the eighth overall pick.
In the end, the Flyers simply stayed put at number seven and the Edmonton Oilers won the lottery to move up from third to first.
"It’s a little disappointing, us along with a lot of other teams, obviously," said Flyers general manager Ron Hextall in a post-lottery conference call. "My way of looking at things the last few days is if we stay at seven that’s a positive, too."
"When you look at it, we’re at seven, and you never know if we’d moved back to eight what player wouldn’t have been there. So we’ll take seven and we’ll get a good player there. The other thing is sometimes when you think about a number one pick, if it’s in your conference or the other conference, you tend to want it in the other conference. So there’s some positives here as well."
While McDavid is considered a potential "generational player" along the lines of Eric Lindros in 1991 or Sidney Crosby in 2005 and the Buffalo Sabres' likely second overall pick Jack Eichel would be a consensus first overall pick many other draft years, the 2015 Draft is being touted as one with exceptional depth throughout the first and even second rounds. The Flyers should still get a very good future NHL player -- and possibly multiple ones with sharp scouting and a healthy dose of good luck -- with their current picks.
In recent months, the Flyers have picked up additional selections in the top end of this year's draft, which will be held on June 26-27 in Sunrise, FL. In addition to the seventh overall pick, the Flyers currently own Tampa Bay's first-round pick (acquired in the Braydon Coburn trade, selection number to be determined based on the 2015 Stanley Cup playoff results), the Chicago Blackhawks' second-round pick (Kimmo Timonen trade, selection number based on the playoffs), the San Jose Sharks' third-round pick (Tye McGinn trade, 70th overall) and the Tampa Bay Lightning's third-round pick (Coburn trade, selection number to be determined).
"It was important," Hextall said of the organization rectifying a situation that otherwise would have seen the Flyers hold only their own first-rounder among the first 97 picks whereas they now own five picks in the top 91.
"One of my goals going into -- actually, last year in the offseason -- but one of the goals I had was to fill the rounds we didn’t have picks in. I think we didn’t have a second or a third, and we were able to do that plus something. We’re happy where we’re at. We did want picks.
"Getting the first I think this year when you start to see the players that are out there became a priority for us, and we were fortunate enough to find someone who was willing… obviously we gave up a pretty darn good player too, but that’s the way it goes, that’s where we’re at, and that’s where Tampa was at. We’re happy with the number of picks we have, certainly."
Beyond the McDavid and Eichel spots in the 2015 Draft, there is no consensus over how the rest of the first round could play out. This is actually a testament to the depth of the 2015 Draft crop because there roughly a dozen to 15 prospects for whom cases could be made to round out the top 10 after Edmonton takes McDavid and Buffalo selects Eichel.
The Flyers have stockpiled defensemen in recent drafts, and four of the top five prospects in the organization are defensemen: 2014 first-rounder Travis Sanheim, 2013 first-rounder Samuel Morin and Lehigh Valley Phantoms defensemen Shayne Gostisbehere and Robert Hà¤gg. Phantoms center Scott Laughton would currently slot in the top four as the lone forward among the group.
The 2015 Draft is deeper in forwards than defensemen on the potential top 15 to top 20 picks. However, there are two or three defensemen who could be top 10 picks, with the potential for others to move up based on teams' internal rankings. The internal lists can -- and often do -- vary rather significantly from the Central Scouting, International Scouting Services, The Hockey News and other prominent publicly available lists.
For example, while Central Scouting and other lists have Boston College defenseman Noah Hanifan as the projected third overall best-player available (BPA), there are others (including TSN's Craig Button, a former NHL general manager and scouting director) who rank Brandon Wheat Kings' defenseman Ivan Provorov as the top defenseman and a top-five BPA. Button's "Craig's List" rankings have Hanifan as the fourth defenseman, while most other have him first or second.
Given the sheer volume of highly regarded forwards relative to defensemen among the projected top 15 in this year's draft, there is a relatively high potential for the BPA on the Flyers' internal rankings to be a forward. However, depending on where the Flyers rank Hanifan, Provorov, University of Michigan defenseman Zach Werenski and other blueliners relative to available forwards, their BPA could be a defenseman.
"If things are equal there, we will [draft a forward]," said Hextall. "If there’s a defenseman on the board and a forward and we have them really close, we would probably lean towards the forward. But until the names fall really, you don’t really know. We’ll have our list and we’ll be prepared, and we’ll make a decision at that point."
For many years, the Flyers' first-round drafting philosophy has been to go the BPA route rather than filling positional needs within the farm system. Last year, the Flyers went in preferring to draft a forward but wound up selecting the rising-with-a-bullet Sanheim with the 17th overall pick. They simply liked Sanheim's upside as a potential 4-S player (skill, size, skating, sense) more than the available forwards in that spot.
Some people immediately questioned both the player and the selection of a defenseman in the first-round of a second straight draft. Most of these folks had never seen Sanheim play and knew of him only based on his Central Scouting ranking as a mid-second range selection rather than knowledge of the quantum leap his development took in the second half of the 2013-14 season.
A year later, with Sanheim having taken yet another quantum leap -- he led all WHL defensemen in scoring and is currently having an outstanding playoff run for the Calgary Hitmen -- no one questions the upside of the pick anymore. The player is an exciting NHL prospect, yet is still nowhere near being a finished product yet, either physically or in terms of continuing to refine and polish the consistency of his all-around game to the level of NHL impact player.
This year, the Flyers may have an opportunity to select some prospects who are very high in at least two or three of the 4-S tools but may be lacking in at least one even as they mature from teenage boys into grown men. The most common leap of faith is in selecting a player who gives away size to opponents or one for whom skating refinement is necessary. Size cannot be "taught", and there is only so much a player who lacks speed can do to improvement quickness.
For example, London Knights forward Mitch Marner is probably always going to be a little bit undersized even as he reaches the professional level. TPS Turku forward Mikko Rantanen has size (he's already 6-foot-4 and 210 pounds) and playmaking skill but gets some mixed reviews on his skating relative to some other top prospects. Kingston Frontenacs left winger Lawson Crouse is huge (6-foot-4, 212 pounds) and plays a power game with some explosiveness in his skating, but there are some who question the upside of his skill level or innate hockey sense relative to offensive impact players at the NHL level.
Hextall was asked which is a greater concern with a first-round pick among all the tangible elements that are considered: question marks over skating or sacrificing size. The Flyers general manager said that he would not necessarily disqualify a prospect for lacking in one area so long as the overall package of other tangibles and intangibles is strong enough to compensate.
"There’s a lot of things you judge in a player. Obviously skate’s one and size is another, but there’s a lot of things – intangibles, obviously, and hockey sense. There’s a lot of things. You can’t just say size or skating. They’re both a big part of the game today, especially if you’re watching the playoffs, but there’s so much more to judge a player on," said Hextall.
Strong innate hockey sense is a prime way that a player who is not being blessed with as much natural skill, size or speed, as someone with superior physical tools can wind up being a better pro player in the long run. So, too, are elements such as character, coachability and sheer commitment to improvement. The NHL Draft is a starting point, not the finish line.
In addition to the aforementioned picks in the first three rounds, the Flyers also hold the Columbus Blue Jackets' fourth-round selection, which was acquired last summer in the Scott Hartnell trade. Here is a look at all the draft picks currently held by the Flyers:
1st round - Flyers (7th overall), Tampa Bay (TBD) 2nd round - Chicago (TBD) 3rd round - San Jose (70th overall), Tampa Bay (TBD) 4th round - Flyers (98th overall), Columbus (99th overall) 5th round - Flyers (128th overall) 6th round - Flyers (158th overall) 7th round - Flyers (188th overall)
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PHANTOMS DROP ROAD FINALE
In their final road game of the 2014-15 season, the Lehigh Valley Phantoms (33-34-7-1) sustained a 5-1 blowout loss to the Hershey Bears (46-22-5-3) on Saturday night. The Bears led 2-0 by the first intermission and pulled away as the game progressed.
An early second period shorthanded goal by Brett Hextall briefly trimmed Lehigh Valley's deficit back to one goal, but it was the only tally the Phantoms could muster on Hershey rookie goalie Pheonix Copley. The Bears outshot the Phantoms by a margin of 44-22.
Rookie Phantoms goaltender Anthony Stolarz stopped 39 of 44 shots. For the season, his record fell to 9-13-4 with a 3.28 goals against average, .905 save percentage and a pair of shutouts. Veteran netminder Rob Zepp is 21-19-4-1 with a 2.62 GAA and .919 save percentage.
Phantoms head coach Terry Murray was ejected on a game misconduct at 11:19 of the third period for arguing with the officials; reportedly the culmination of a running debate over several calls made during the game. Assistant coach Riley Cote ran the bench for the remainder of the game.
The Phantoms' season concludes on Sunday. The team takes on the Wilkes Barre/Scranton Penguins at the PPL Center with a scheduled 5:05 p.m. opening faceoff.
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FLYERS ALUMNI UPDATES FROM
* The Flyers Alumni will host a fantasy hockey camp from August 21-24 in Atlantic City, open to anyone age 21 and older. Instructors and Alumni participants will include Bernie Parent, Brian Propp, Ian Laperriere, Todd Fedoruk, Andre "Moose" Dupont, Dave "the Hammer" Schultz, Joe Watson and Bob "the Hound" Kelly.
The registration deadline is June 1. Participation costs $3,000 apiece but it is free to register a spot online. Over on the Flyers' Alumni website, there is more information on camp-related activities and on-ice schedules.
* The 11th annual installment of the Goals for Giving benefit game to raise funds for NHS Human Services was a smashing success. The April 12 game at the Flyers Skate Zone in northeast Philadelphia raised over $118,000 on behalf of the organization. Over the previous 10 years, the NHS Human Services Foundation Goals for Giving Hockey Benefit raised $386,000 to support the programs and services of NHS Human Services. NHS provides nutritious foods to the needy and teaches life skills and food preparation to people with disabilities. The organization also supports autism-sensitive schooling as well as housing programs for the needy. It is still possible to donate to the 2015 Goals for Giving drive to help the Alumni and NHS reach their $125,000 fundraising target goal. For more information on helping the cause, click here.