Luck Matters: Jets vs Ducks game 3
Most Jets fans felt far more optimistic about the first two games between these teams. They really believed the Jets had a chance to win a road game and make life difficult for the top-seeded Ducks. In fact many pundits did too as the Jets appeared to be the ‘Darlings’ of the playoffs for many folks in Canada and beyond.
Coming home they are down 2-0 in the series against a team that has had the led for all of just over seven (7) minutes!! Is that good luck or bad?
@Teddier @SteveBurtch Meh. The Ducks hit a bunch of posts the other night too, so the luck evens out. They deserve to be up 2-0.
— Ryan Blight (@arby_18) April 20, 2015@Teddier @SteveBurtch Sure. That tells me that the Jets were the lucky ones, as ANA has been the better team in 5 of the 6 periods IMO.
— Ryan Blight (@arby_18) April 20, 2015This is the conversation that happened between Ryan Blight and I after the very astute Steve Burch tweeted out this:
Ducks: 1st team in NHL history to hold 2-0 series lead when trailing to start third period in each of the first two games (ELIAS)
— John Buccigross (@Buccigross) April 20, 2015So what’s going on for the Jets and the Ducks?
As it stands the Jets have held the lead for just over 30 minutes in the first two games and as mentioned above the Ducks just over 7 minutes. It could be reversed, it could be different but it could simply be that the randomness and variables that affect hockey games are simply leaning in the Ducks favour.
As Ryan pointed out the Ducks have outplayed the Jets in 5 of 6 periods and that’s easy to see by the ‘eye-test’ and the stats too. More possession and more chances are happening for Anaheim and if you are a believer in ‘making your own luck’ then the Ducks are doing a much better job than the Jets. But this series is close and each game is close and that’s just like the numbers suggest from the regular seasons- these teams are not that different.
Without getting too technical (yet) the Jets aren’t doing what the Ducks are- that’s making the opposition chase the play. The Ducks are a more disciplined team they play a tighter, more controlled game defensively and adhere to their system while the Jets will unravel faster when pressured. The goal by Silfverberg was a prime example of how the Jets lot possession and then chased to get it back. The problem with the ‘chase’ is that it creates a compounding problem as one player leaves positions, followed by another and then one teams looks like they are doing blind fire drill.
Have as anyone seen the Ducks allow that in their own end?
That’s the idea of luck in play because despite the frequency of the Jets being pressured and confused they have not allowed much for the Ducks. The lead time would confirm this and maybe that’s good luck too? Bizarre as it seems both teams are having good luck?
That’s the essence of Ryan’s point: sure the Ducks have had some luck to be winning with such little lead time but the Jets are just as lucky to be losing in that fashion, it could be worse. It could also be better.
In the last piece I mentioned the shift chart and how Maurice was either having trouble or not caring about match-ups. The same thing existed in game two as by the chart Maurice appeared to not find any stability against the Perry Getzlaf line. To make matter worse the Stafford Scheifele Wheeler line is being abused by anyone with Kesler. That’s the second part to the problem, even if the Jets solve the Perry-Getlaf conundrum all-world pest Ryan Kesler is making life even tougher after. All this before the PK issues come into play.
The question now becomes if the home ice advantage of having ‘last change’ can help Maurice in certain situations by forcing Boudreau to play his top guys more and shorten his bench?
The basic fact remains that one line if not a couple of other players seem to be the focal point of problems the Jets have. They have done all but enough to win except hang on when they have the lead, even if it looks ugly or fraught with risk. Scoring more would likely help but that’s only one part of sustainable solution- there has to be better play across the board for the home team tonight.
Aside from the actual task at hand it appears there is a full on media circus in Winnipeg and that may be a good, or bad thing. The TSN crew is here, Gary Bettman, even Down Goes Brown and they are expecting something that has not been seen in 19 years- a whiteout in Winnipeg.
Frankly this may be more hype than it’s worth and that’s not being a party-pooper it’s partially what may be driving the love for Winnipeg that was mentioned earlier. One based as much on heart strings and nostalgia rather than logic and analysis. Want to make it worse- add in Teemu Selanne who told folks that he would make the trip fro game 3 or 4 in Winnipeg. It’s this kind of circus that the Jets need to worry less about. I was at the first game back in 2011 and for most fans the 60 minutes of hockey was a side show to the event that was the NHL back in Winnipeg.
It will be madness and then the players and coaches of the Jets have to make some sort of sense of it all and focus on what really matters- defeating the Ducks. Cleary that issue was a bit glossed over by many before the series started, no down 2-0 and on home will the Jets that every one expected being playing the way that was expected? To date that has not happened and that should be the fans biggest concern, not how big or loud the party is.