Tonight isn’t a must win for the Penguins by definition, but it is. Losing Game 4 would twist the odds of a Penguins series win into lower odds than the Buffalo Sabres had for Connor McDavid.
Every game obv important but Game 4 always a big swing. Usually means 2-2 or 3-1. Difference between ~50% chance of taking series and ~10%.
— James Mirtle (@mirtle) April 22, 2015
Pittsburgh is the underdog and will need to be somewhat reliant on lucky bounces. It is imperative they win tonight. To get the right bounces three games in a row would probably be asking for too much. Especially with Henrik Lundqvist in net.
How can the Penguins achieve victory?
Sidney Crosby breaking through like he did in Game 2 would go a long way towards victory. He is generating scoring chances at a high of a rate. He has been among the best at generating scoring chances so far in these playoffs.
If anyone keeps riding the narrative that the Isles are containing Ovechkin: #nope pic.twitter.com/pwQTBwdMQm
— Pat Holden (@pfholden) April 22, 2015
For those hoping for Evgeni Malkin to morph back into the playoff boss that he has been for his entire career I wouldn’t hold your breath.
The Penguins losing skid at the end of the year which endangered their chances of the playoffs forced the team to bring Malkin back before he was able to heal. Desperate times call for desperate measures but in this case that extra week of recovery for Geno was lost. You can see that Geno is physically limited out there. It is believed to be a back injury, which is fitting because of how often he has helped carry this team time and time again.
Evgeni Malkin is going to say all the right things to the media and will not use injury as an excuse, but I am. It is what it is.
In other injury news the team’s official Twitter account has ever so slightly opened the door for a Kris Letang return
@rivalpiper Because Letang is out for an indefinite amount of time. Never ruled out for the season. Injury page here: http://t.co/VDuSgC4Mka
— Pittsburgh Penguins (@penguins) April 22, 2015
This is perhaps a case of semantics. I still do not believe we will see Letang suit up again this season.
Johnston says Pouliot is "really close to playing." #Pens
— Wes Crosby (@OtherNHLCrosby) April 22, 2015
Daniel Winnik has been very bad in these three playoff games. Daniel Winnik is not a bad player. It is time to end the Winnik in the top six experiment. Play him in his normal third line left wing position.
Winnik is on his own island there.
Dan Rosen of NHL.com had former NHL assistant coach Dave Farrish give his opinion of Game 3.
Interesting take from ex-NHL assistant Dave Farrish on why the NYR stifled PIT thru 40 mins in Game 3. http://t.co/g2tlOicnUu
— Dan Rosen (@drosennhl) April 22, 2015
Farrish claims that the New York Rangers backcheck has been giving Pittsburgh issues. I agree with his assessment. This plays into the zone exit/zone entry stuff I have been writing about. If you remember back to the 2013 Eastern Conference Finals against Boston this was a common theme in that series as well. Guys like Bergeron provided the back pressure and made life super easy for Chara and Boychuk to step up. This led to Pittsburgh having minimal ability to sustain offensive pressure.
When you have back pressure from responsible forwards it allows the defending defenseman to stand players up at the blue line. They know the attacking player cannot cut to the middle due to the back pressure and this leads to dump-ins. Dumping the puck in has been statistically proven to generate less shot attempts than if you have a controlled entry. More shot attempts means more chances at getting a lucky bounce, something we know Pittsburgh needs to win the series. Their wiggle room for error is very small given the lack of depth when compared to their opponent.
Penguins need a result tonight. Will they get it?
Thanks for reading!
Follow me on twitter Follow @GunnerStaal