The Tampa Bay Lightning and Chicago Blackhawks are set to play a defining fourth game of the Stanley Cup Final tonight at the United Center. After grabbing a victory in Game Three, the Bolts have a chance to take a 3-1 series lead with a win tonight. A loss, on the other hand, would send the series back to Tampa tied up at two.
One of the things that struck and shocked me as I read through the threads on both my blog and JJ’s blog was the sheer tone of despair with which some Chicago posters were commenting. Here’s the deal: This series is FAR from over. A Chicago win resets the series completely, and sends it back to a place they’ve already won one game. There isn’t a team in the league that wouldn’t take a 2-2 tie through four games in the Stanley Cup Final. Plus, it’s not like they haven’t been in this situation before:
For the trivia crowd: Since 2009, CHI has won 6 of 9 series in which it has trailed 2-1.
— Jason Kay (@JKTHN) June 10, 2015With Chicago’s desperation level likely to be high, Tampa will have to be wary of a big push from the opposition to start the game. They saw it in Game Three when, after Ryan Callahan scored the opening goal, the Blackhawks ran roughshod over them. Had it not been for some creative (read: terrifyingly unorthodox) goaltending from a clearly injured Ben Bishop, the game could have been over in the first stanza. The Lightning will need to do a better job of setting the pace early, as they can’t simply rely on their goaltender’s ability.
Now, with that said, it’s not as though there haven’t been some concerning trends for Chicago. Yes, they’ve had stretches when they’ve looked dominant. But, unfortunately, they haven’t been able to turn that into a solid, 60-minute performance. Perhaps most indicative of their struggle is the fact that they are always playing catch-up:
The #Blackhawks have led for 6:19 in this series. That's 3.5 percent of the time.
— Mark Lazerus (@MarkLazerus) June 10, 2015If the Lightning are going to grab their third victory of the series, they’ll do it facing a slightly different Chicago lineup. All indications point to Bryan Bickell being taken out of the lineup, with Kris Versteeg set to take his place. That will likely make many Blackhawks fans happy, as Versteeg has been infinitely more effective in this series than Bickell.
Another Chicago lineup note: Johnny Oduya, who was injured in Game Three, was not at this morning’s skate. He is reportedly dealing with an upper-body injury. His status will be something to monitor in advance of puck drop, as the Blackhawks rely on him as one of their four big-minute guys on the blue line. Kimmo Timonen, who is reportedly going to be in the lineup tonight, could be his replacement. Even if Oduya does play, though, the Bolts will likely look to exploit whatever is ailing him.
For their part, the Lightning are unlikely to reveal much about their lineup until just before puck drop. Jon Cooper (and Ben Bishop, for that matter) have been very reticent with regards to the goaltending situation over the past few days; still, it’s hard to imagine that anyone but Bishop will get the start in net unless his injury has gotten significantly worse over the last day or two.
Based on how this series has gone so far, I have to believe that tonight’s game will be a defining one. The Lightning heading home with a 3-1 lead is a whole lot better than the Lightning heading home with a 2-2 tie. That’s not to say that Tampa can’t win the series if they don’t win tonight, or that Chicago can’t come back from a 3-1 deficit, but the task at hand would be a lot more manageable for the Lightning if they just go out and win tonight. Here’s hoping they do just that.
As always, thanks for reading.
Michael Stuart has been the Tampa Bay Lightning writer for HockeyBuzz since 2012. Visit his archive to read more or follow him on Twitter.