Two of the league's very best defensemen will square off against one another this evening. Ottawa's Erik Karlsson and Pittsburgh's Kris Letang are both putting together fantastic seasons.
Erik Karlsson should win the Norris Trophy and Kris Letang probably deserves one of the other two nominations. Here are some of their comparable numbers as well as those from Drew Doughty and Brent Burns who are also worthy of Norris nomination
I have provided two possession related metrics on here for context. Using both numbers together helps paint a picture of what that player is doing in the given situation he has been put in. For example Erik Karlsson has the lowest raw Score-Adjusted Fenwick but has the highest relative possession number. This is a result of Karlsson playing on a bad team. The other three players all play on top five possession teams
Ottawa is 26th ranked at 46.2%.
Doughty being at a +4.07% on the league's best possession team is very impressive. Kris Letang being +2.58% is also very good.
Possession is one part of the puzzle. Another part is the amount of offense these players are capable of generating. Three of these players excel at it while one falls way behind
Erik Karlsson is able to generate more offense at even-strength than Drew Doughty even when you include Doughty's power play stats. Erik Karlsson is the Ottawa Senators. To be 1.56 points per 60 at even-strength as a defenseman is ridiculously good. Karlsson is only three points behind Sidney Crosby on the year.
On the flip side Drew Doughty's offensive output at even-strength is not good. To put Doughty's offensive contributions into perspective Rob Scuderi(!), yes that guy, has a 5v5 points per 60 of 0.66 this year! The best defenseman in the league can't generate more offense than Rob Scuderi?
For me the Norris Trophy isn't about the defenseman who is able to generate the most points, but there do have to be traces of evidence that the best defenseman in the league is able to drive offense in some capacity. For me this is where Drew Doughty is disqualified from the Norris Trophy.
And lastly for those who put a high value on a Norris Trophy winning defenseman playing on the penalty kill I leave these numbers here
I bet most people wouldn't expect Erik Karlsson to have the best numbers here, but he does. So one of the biggest criticisms of Karlsson is actually just another strength of his.
For me the Norris Trophy deserves to go to Erik Karlsson. His possession game is very strong. His tangible offense at even-strength is the best. He is in the middle of a historically great season.
Most points, one season, by NHL defenceman since 1996-97:
— Chris Johnston (@reporterchris) April 2, 2016
Lidstrom, 80, 2005-06
Karlsson, 79 (and counting), 2015-16
Leetch, 79, 2000-01
Something to keep in mind with Karlsson vs Lidstrom and Leetch is that the average save percentage these days is way higher and goal scoring is way down. Karlsson's accomplishment is crazy good.
Kris Letang and Brent Burns deserve to be the other two nominations for the award. This isn't going to happen because there are too many people in the main stream media who do not take the effort to properly analyze these players. They also believe that Drew Doughty has earned some kind of "career" award which is ludicrous in its own right. Nick Lidstrom didn't win his first Norris until he was 31 years old just to show how absurd that mindset is. Drew Doughty is 26 years young. Some of these voters need to display better judgement.
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Gotta be quick on that trigger
Always be ready with your camera when @68Jagr comes to take a selfie with you. pic.twitter.com/vmZtZXw58d
— NHL (@NHL) April 5, 2016
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