Saturday night was yet another example of why the Ottawa Senators will not be a playoff team this season. They outplayed their opponent and had a multitude of great scoring chances but couldn't put away a close game and in the end it came back to bite them in the form of a 3-2 loss.
Sure, Anton Khudobin played a great game, but far too often this season the Senators have run into a "hot goalie".
It shouldn't have even been close in the Senators' favor through 20 minutes, as Mike Hoffman had a point blank one-timer and Curtis Lazar made a nice move in close shorthanded and had the puck roll off the end of his stick. A last minute goal by Brad Malone and a game that the Senators should have been comfortable saw them trailing.
The second period was more of the same, as Bobby Ryan had an incredible chance moments after Cody Ceci had jumped into the rush and tied the game, but was again turned away. Likewise Jean-Gabriel Pageau on a breakaway 4 on 4 and a game that should have been well in hand was tied through 40 minutes. I think you might be sensing a trend here...
After swapping Erik Condra and Mike Hoffman for the start of the third, as Coach Dave Cameron was looking to get Hoffman away from the Staal brothers, the Senators continued to take the play to the Canes, and if not dominate the shots they at least had the better scoring chances. Erik Karlsson knifed through the offensive zone like Moses and got a clear shot, and Hoffman had another great chance. Then the Senators started to hit the iron, beating Khudobin a handful of times but unable to beat the red nemeses. But in the end, a couple of fortunate bounces that resulted in Carolina goals overshadowed a pretty nice effort from Mark Stone and the Senators lost the third period 2-1 and the game 3-2.
It was a good game by the Senators, and one that as Coach Cameron said in his post game press conference "If we play that game 10 times we probably win 9 of them". It is just too often this season that the Senators fall into that 1 game category. Probably more than 1 of 10 times.
You can point the finger at bad luck or bad bounces, but in the end the Senators had more than enough chances to put the game away early so that those bad bounces didn't result in a loss. ---
On the positive side, whether it is the return of Marc Methot or the change behind the bench, Erik Karlsson has upped his own game in recent matches. He has been a + or even player in his last 11 games, a far cry from what he was earlier this season. Which brings me to... CAN THE SENATORS AFFORD NOT TO SIGN MARC METHOT The Marc Staal contract extension (6 years, $5.7M per) sort of sets the benchmark for the likes of Methot. They are pretty similar defenders and already just a few games into his return from injury he has asserted himself on the top pair with Karlsson.
Obviously it has been difficult to find a permanent partner for their best player, and the Senators struggled because of it. I don't think there is anyone else currently in the system capable of playing those minutes, and he would cost a King's ransom in a trade and going the free agency route (given the likes of Staal and Brooks Orpik) would break the bank.
The fact is, if Methot's presence makes Erik Karlsson a Norris Trophy candidate (and at least for a few games he has been playing that way), then he is worth the $5M or $5.5M he is asking for and will easily get on the open market come July.
The price might be higher than they want to pay, and earlier in the process I supported holding firm in negotiations, but the difference in the team's play in its own in is night and day with him eating those important minutes, and the replacement cost is going to be just a high if not higher.