Death, taxes, and the LA Kings struggling in January.
It just seems like a moment we have all come to expect from the Los Angeles Kings over the course of an 82-game season. It happens every year, and it's here now. That isn't even an exaggeration actually. Sheng Peng did a great post back in December over at Jewels from the Crown in regards to the Kings struggles during the middle portion of the year. Check it out.
The current Kings January woes have seen the team slide out of a playoff spot, and go 2-3-4 on the month.
With a reprieve coming in the form of the all-star break it gives everyone, fans included, to sit back and have a chance to put things in perspective.
I am here to tell you that while it is frustrating, it isn't all THAT bad. Some of it is, and some of the numbers are very different than Kings numbers we have seen in the past. Other things are pretty status quo for an LA Kings team that has hardly ever blasted the doors off a regular season.
Let's take a look.
Corsi Kings
Yup. Still good at that at least.
The formula for success over recent years for the Kings has been their puck possession game and favorable analytics game.
That, of course, is still outstanding. The Kings are currently tied for number one overall in the league with Chicago in corsi for percentage. In terms of corsi for over 60 minutes played they are fourth in the league.
The slightly varied fenwick percentage and 60 minute rates are also good, with the Kings coming in at fourth in percentage and second in 60 minutes fenwick rates. Very good stuff and consistent with how they have played over the last five years. This team has rarely been outshot or out chanced during a game this season, which makes the struggles all the more frustrating.
With this graph provided by War-on-Ice.com you can good look at how they've actually had a fairly strong analytics game compared to previous seasons.
In the current state of things the Kings would fall somewhere in between the 2011-12 team and the 2013-14 team in terms of quality of games.
It is basically what we have come to expect. The Kings outplay teams on a lot of nights and simply don't win.
Special Teams
And here is one of the major reasons they haven't won.
The penalty kill.
It didn't come up big last night in the loss to the Sharks, and it hasn't come up big hardly at all this year. It was mentioned briefly in my Around the Pacific post on Hockey Prospectus, but the Kings penalty killing differential from last year to this year is pretty crazy
The Kings have no given up 10 goals in their last 26 penalty killing opportunities in January, and the team is floundering in the bottom five of the league in penalty kill. This is something we haven't seen in many years. Maybe it's Quick not making stops when they need him, maybe it's the shifting of personnel, the injuries, or just bad luck, but the Kings PK has been atrocious. Opponent powerplays are scoring at almost a 40% rate against the Kings in January and that is flat out unacceptable. It has buried them on numerous occasions by leading to both ill-timed momentum shifts and momentum killers. The Kings have been in a lot of games or close to it until a PK situation comes up and changes the entire scope of the game.
With the way the Kings penalty kill is going they are currently on pace to have their worst PK season since 2007-08.
This is also one of the reasons why the Kings goals against average has jumped from around 2.00 even to 2.5 this year. Every other game the Kings are giving up that one extra goal, and it usually comes from the opponents powerplay.
Will it get any easier?
You wonder if the Kings have just been victim to a tough schedule. Unfortunately that doesn't seem to be the case, and the worst is yet to come.
Using Jeff Sagarin strength of schedule numbers, which you can find the complete list here, the Kings have one of the most difficult schedules remaining. Ranking in at 26th overall, these numbers were calculated using the teams performances already this season, as well as the records of opponents and the venue.
If you aren't thoroughly convinced by just some fancy stats from some USA Today dude, go ahead and click on LAKings.com and take a look at the upcoming schedule.
A road trip through the Eastern time zone which includes Boston, Florida, Tampa Bay and Washington. Visits from Tampa Bay, Washington, and Detroit at Staples. Some top West teams will also come into play, like Chicago twice, the Ducks twice, Nashville once, and Winnipeg once. There is also New York road swing against the Rangers, Islanders, and a plethora of divisional matchups.
The divisional matchups along may be their only saving grace. It could also be a stake to the heart. The Kings have 35 games left this season and 13 of them are against the division. That's 13 four point games. So far they have gone 7-3-6 against the division, which isn't bad but it isn't great either.
Basically this is going to be one tough stretch run, and the Kings may not be in the best position going into it.
Everyone is slumping
It is winter, it is cold, everyone is sick, or injured. Whatever right? What goes up must come down, and what was bad will have to go back to being good eventually right? Right???
Well, that's the hope. They seem to be the Kings of Los Angeles along with being the Kings of regular season regression. Slumps and poor play you could almost set your calendar by have been a staple of this team. Not a good one, but a staple nonetheless.
Kopitar, Carter, Richards, Brown, etc. etc. etc.
Everyone seems to be off pace. Only the amazing Trevor Lewis seems to be punching above his weight right now, and even that is coming back to earth. Oh and goal machine Matt Greene.
So if it is bad now it is going to get better later. Regression to the mean. That easy right? Right. If you want to play the positive spin game you can also add in that a team that faces adversity during the regular season usually is better prepared for the postseason. Having to play games for your playoff life down the stretch leave the intensity level resting in high gear. No nights get taken off. Hey, just like the playoffs.
This is all just on paper though, the Kings still have to actually go out and win a game or two.
Defensive Breakdowns
If one thing has to change outside of the penalty kill it has to be the defense.
There is no way the Kings can play the same style of firewagon defense they have and expect to waltz into the playoffs.
There was a pretty comprehensive post breaking down the differences in the Kings defense this year about a week ago, check it in case you have forgotten.
It definitely has to tighten up. They also need to get some bigger stops from Jonathan Quick. While he hasn't had a ton of help defensively lately, he has not come up with the big saves when they need him.
Case and point, last night's opening goal by Logan Couture.
Yes, Martinez got beat. Yes it looked like he was sitting in a hole. But that poke check attempt probably wasn't the best course of action.
In a whole, defensemen, forwards, penalty killers, goaltending...it HAS to be better defensively for them to turn things around.
The unknown
Is there a big trade coming? Is Dean Lombardi going to work deadline magic again? Maybe? When Toffoli comes back will it make a difference? Are there more injuries to come?
There are a lot of unknown factors still to be determined for this year. Some could have big effects on the rest of the season. The deadline isn't far away, and there are definitely a few veteran players who aren't pulling their weight that's for sure. Will we see a difference maker emerge in the way of a trade or hot streak?
Time will tell.
Let the blood pressure fall back to normal working levels. The Kings do not take the again until next Wednesday when the Chicago Blackhawks roll into town. Then it is back to normal stress levels for an L.A. regular season.
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