If you haven’t had a chance to review the statistical preview you can read the HERE . A quick summary would say that these teams are matched well from a statistical standpoint and that the 10 point separation that has one at first in the west vs 8th is likely due to luck, good and bad.
What is left to discuss about the series are the things that cannot be measured or tracked, at least as better detailed metrics allow. Does this mean intangibles? Perhaps, but it also means different variables of tactics, strategy and personnel. This second part of the preview will look at the bigger picture of the series and how the teams are set against each other and what they have to do to succeed as well as who is important.
Hot Seats
There are a few players who are going to have larger than normal expectations placed upon them. For the Jets this would be Pavelec, Ladd, Byfgulien, Frolik, Wheeler, Enstrom and Myers, while on the Ducks it would include, Perry, Getzlaf, Kesler, Fowler, Gibson and coach Bruce Boudreau.
Jets
Ondrej Pavelec, he of the 3 consecutive shutouts goes into the post season as hot as he has ever been. Never has he reached this level in his NHL career and this latest run has many fans wondering if he has turned a mental corner. While criticisms have rained down on Pavelec for years the difference in recent play seems to come from between the ears. It’s not that Pavelec does not read the game well, he has always been an instinctual and reactive goalie but recent play shows him doing less of what has caused him trouble in the past. Maybe he’s not thinking the game as much, or ‘over thinking’ as some would call it, whatever has changed since that goal in St. Louis has been more than welcome. Regardless of recent play, Pavelec’s history and reputation will stay with him and if he’s not game ready then the chances of beating the Ducks become much tougher.
Andrew Ladd is a two-time Stanley Cup champion but has not seen playoff action since 2010. Ladd never waivers in his task and is more than reliable and consistent but now he has to lead in the post season, something that was not his role in Chicago. That being said it was a role he wanted and the Blackhawks made a choice in their leadership group after the 2010 Cup and Ladd was not in it. It’s his time and his team now this young group needs his leadership and experience on and off the ice. Eyes will be on him, mostly looking for bad penalties but also all the little things that come with playoff hockey.
Dustin Byfuglien was with Ladd when the two last saw playoff hockey. Ask Kesler about the nightmares Byfuglien caused the Canucks in 2010. He was playing as a forward and became an immovable object in front of Luongo. He too will be relied upon to provide stability and brevity when it matters for the Jets and like Ladd that means on and off the ice. The Jets need Byfuglien to be the force he was when he was moved back to defines in late November where he started a run that had many in the NHL suggesting he could be a Norris candidate. He will be facing a variety of situations and will likely have the opportunity to pound Getzlaf and Perry into the boards, he can’t waste those opportunities. When Buff plays physical the earth moves and for Jets fans they want to see an earthquake happen in California because of him.
Michael Frolik also has a cup ring and last season, his first with the Jets, he was the one player associated with the ‘give a f*ck’ comment that came out of the Jets locker room. Frolik always plays like he cares and anyone who watched the Blackhawks in 2013 knows how valuable he was in his role. He shut guys down no matter who he faced. Frolic is a player who is going to help guys like Lowry and and Scheifele, a rookie and sophomore who will have to learn on the fly starting tomorrow night.
Wheeler, Enstrom and Myers are all critical players for any Jets success. Wheeler practically willed his way to two scoring chances late against Colorado knowing that had he potted a goal his team was assured a playoff spot. The post season means that much to him. Wheeler has speed and size and will be critical to making sure the Ducks have to play that hard, long and tiring 200 foot game. Wheeler has wanted this opportunity for a long time, especially since being traded from Boston before they went on their cup run in 2011. Enstrom, one of the most unsung players in the NHL, is going to be vital for helping the Jets transition out of their zone and counter attacking the Ducks. He not only has to win puck battles but move it quickly while supporting Myers who can and will carry deep into the offensive zone. Enstrom’s size makes many question his ability to handle the large forwards on the Ducks but he has hardly struggled against anyone in the NHL to date so that fear may be overblown. Myers is the defensemen most fans wanted Bogosian to be, and now they finally have him. He carries, shoots, skates and hits but seems to be far more durable and competent. His reach and size will be critical to any Jets success when it comes to helping the transition game as he can remove the puck from the player and have it turn around up the ice quickly.
The variables
The Jets have an opportunity to play with one of the best and beat them but they cannot fall victim to what many teams do in the playoffs… allowing the opposition to dictate the game. What has become known across the NHL is that teams do not like playing the Jets, they get hit, bumped, tangled and banged up and usually tired out. Can the Jets keep playing this way in the second season? They will have to if they want success because that’s how they are built and structured by roster and tactics.
Goaltending is an issue for both teams, as neither team has had a consistently great run through the season with both having ups and downs. The Ducks have Andersen out for a time and will have Gibson starting, a back up who has played far less minutes than Hutchinson this season. Is that an advantage to the Jets, it could be but only if the Ondrej Pavelec of the last three weeks shows up. Unless your name starts with Carey, Henrik or Pekka consistency may be an issue you always have as goalie. What happens if Maurice has to make the call to switch to Hutchinson, or even if that question comes up amongst media and fans? No coach wants that issue or problem but it’s a real possibility.
The match-ups that Boudreau and Maurice choose will be fascinating to watch. Does Maurice let Scheifele go head to head with Kesler, a guy who raises his annoyance level by 1000 come the playoffs? What about the physical and somewhat greasy/dirty stuff from Getzlaf? Will Maurice want a certain pairing or line against him and if so how does he manage that on the road? The challenge here is the Jets could move away from the way they have played most the of the season simply to counter particular players and that may not be smart or successful. The team finally has decent depth and skill on the third and fourth line allowing a balanced attack. When that dept did not exist the Jets found themselves tired and short on more than a few occasions, they need not go back that situation.
The Ducks earned the right to be the number one seed in the west but they only did it by being 10 points better than the Jets. They also had the advantage of playing in the same division as the Coyotes and Oilers something the Jets did not. There is no team in the Central remotely close to as bad as those two organizations.
Will it come down to home ice? If it does it is vital the Jets get a win Thursday or Saturday to ensure they can push the series to five or 6 games when they have a chance to play again at home to the certainly raucous MTS Centre crowd. If you don’t think Jets fans are going crazy for the post season take a look at Stub Hub for lone tickets available for game one. Now consider what the Kijiji Marketplace is doing. This is what 19 years without the post season does to a city, remember when the rest of the league though no one in Winnipeg could afford the NHL?
The challenge in this series will come down to what happens between the pipes for each team and who converts opportunities. The Ducks may have some better talent for that task but don’t rule out what former Duck Mathieu Perreault could bring once he enters the line-up, which could be tomorrow night. On paper there’s nothing easy about predicting this series and there certainly won’t be on anything easy on the ice. Discipline and execution will reign supreme and that might be the Ducks most immediate and important advantage- will they realize it?
Predictions and final thoughts tomorrow.