The next steps for the Jets involve what they are going to do as it means to progressing from the steps taken this season. That being a playoff appearance and making an impact when there. It won’t be easy.
One has to consider that the Jets may have had a bit of luck this past season, so much so that it helped them get into the playoffs for the first time in franchise history since 2007. I’ve written about luck before and some people will believe in it and others dismiss luck as something that is just an intangible, like character.
Before looking ahead to what the Jets may or may not do as they edge towards the draft and free agency period, perhaps a mock Q & A is worth doing?
Q: Pete the Jets got better goaltending than ever before and that happened with a new coach and new defensive systems- is that luck?
A: Paul Maurice helped the Jets as a team overall- some bad habits were exorcised and some were eliminated through effort but did he rebuild a defense to improve his goalie(s) that much? Before Pavelec finished the season he put up 3 straight shut outs- willed his team into the post season. Take away those three games and his season save percentage is .915 not .920 as it finished. That’s average goaltending and if you add in the 4 games from the post season his % goes to .917 at 54 games, about his usual amount of games played per season. This past season is one outlier season for Pavelec, if it happens again next season then we may have a coach affect to talk about.
Q: But the Jets defense was decimated with injuries throughout the year and they were still winning.
A: Yes they were, but in November/December that’s when Hutchinson was getting more starts too while the defense was a patchwork quilt. Not all those players slotted in with expertise in Maurice’s system. Hutch in his rookie year finished with a .914 save percentage playing 38 games. It took Pavelec until his 3rd pro season in NHL to play that many, at 42 games, and he only had a .906 save percentage, he did see nearly 300 more shots though. The point being is Hutch may have helped Pavelec by being able to shoulder a fair load this season and put some pressure on him. Same standard applies to Hutch- let’s see it happen again before we praise the coach.
Q: If the Jets were lucky aren’t all good teams the benefactors of good luck through the entire season?
A: Sure they are but the people who are far smarter than I have already stated with more than enough evidence that over history the league’s average shooting percentage hovers around 8.2% and the leaves average save percentage hovers around .915%. Thus we get PDO (the best measurement of luck)to regress to 100 or 1 or 1000 depending on how you like your numbers. Teams that go higher need to sustain it and that does happen but not for very long, the same is for players unless they are elite. Elite players make elite things happen therefore they get paid more, more accolades and are held to higher standards. Who is elite on the Jets?
Q: Do you think the Jets are on an upward trajectory or just lucky?
A: The Jets are obviously aiming ‘up’ but whether they can get there again in the toughest division in the NHL is a tough task. What happens when Colorado and Dallas make improvements? The point that needs to be made is resting on the success of making the post-season does not guarantee it is something that will happen again and again, see Boston, Colorado, San Jose. The bigger picture here, with an off season sure to have some changes, is that the Jets’ management need to be asking the right questions about their team. Where can they improve and what is required to improve are probably the two biggest questions needed to be asked and comprehensively answered.
Q: So what are the answers? Where do you cut and add?
A: That’s a topic requiring an entire blog but let’s illustrated how one could approach the answer and action this offseason.
1- Study the Salary Cap and figure out who needs help or who is in trouble 2- Study the rosters of every team and use the same analysis metrics on players of interest 3- Learn from history when offering contracts to aging players 4- Study and project development from within the Jets organization 5- Study your own team and begin the valuation of position and player based on cap and budget 6- Discover and learn market efficiencies for players sought
The argument can be made the Jets finally reached regular season success due to many factors over the course of four seasons. No one side or position is conclusive enough to convince anyone to a certain and definitive ‘why’ reason. The problem I see for fans and management is this: are the Jets the team that showed up down the stretch when faced with adversity, with their character and past mental resolve questioned from seasons before? Or, are they the team that managed to hold onto the 8th and final playoff spot most of the season despite, ups and downs and injuries?
One of those teams is a platform the other is a hot streak and fans would do well to remember the player and players who got them into position to have a hot run during the final games rather than the final games themselves. It’s long-term view versus short-term success and getting hot or being lucky at the right times is no plan any GM or coach should rely upon.
While the possession metrics were solid for the Jets through most of the season there are lots of reasons to project next season with caution. There are UFAs, RFAs and soon to be UFAs and RFAs that all have to be accounted for this year and within the next year. The interesting thing about where the Jets sit now is that some of the critics of Kevin Cheveldayoff, yours truly included, are practicing the same wait and see approach as he has. Oh the irony right? It’s not quite that simple, as I suggested above one view is a platform the other is a short-term trend. Those same critics are also waiting because (finally for some) they can measure Chevy on the next steps of a draft and develop model.
Thats the good news for Jets fans, by making the post season with the moves that have been made these past four seasons the off-season analysis and commentary has changed. No longer will Jets fans have to worry about who Chevy can find to help build the team but what pieces should stay, what pieces can be added from within, from the outside to build upon the platform. Yes, there is still work to do to make players sign a contract with the Jets but this time Chevy is coming from a position where he should feel more confident than in seasons past. At the same time this position means the wrong moves can be more costly too…but for most Jets fans that’s a much better problem to have and situation to be in.