Jets in Review Part 2- What comes next
From a calendar stand point the Jets are like all other teams, waiting for the playoffs to end and then moving into the draft and RFA period followed by the always exciting UFA period. Within this time frame coaches will be hired and maybe fired, as well as GMs and other key decision making personnel. None of those kinds of moves are likely for the NHL Jets but they will have to consider players, and who is coming and who is going.
With a draft and develop model, one that is to mimic Nashville, the Jets have some interesting events coming on the horizon of the first 5 years since the Thrashers were re-located to Winnipeg. First, is how to keep the momentum of this past season rolling into next year and improve. Second, is what to do with impending free agents for this season. Third, is what to do with impending free agents in the future.
The aspect of laddering contracts by position and depth is a delicate act requiring some planning, luck, and action all rolled together. By now you may have read the piece by James Mirtle of The Globe and Mail talking about contracts, the salary cap, and roster management. He cites two teams, both recent Cup Champions as victims of poor cap/roster management, those being Boston and LA. For some a cup win justifies the means to get there, perhaps more so if you win 2 within a 3 year period but is ‘win at all costs’ the same as ‘win at any cost’?
That’s a break-up of a Kevin Cheveldayoff quote from a few years ago where he said “we want to win at all costs, not any cost.… There’s a big difference, even though it may seem like there isn’t.
‘All costs’ are what you are prepared and accept to pay. ‘Any costs’ are what is required to get what you want regardless of what it may be costing. GMs who pursue success using the latter methodology can often find themselves just like LA and Boston; remember those old Rangers teams with salaries higher than some nations GDP?
The crux of James Mirtle’s piece is the same that many businesses, small, medium, large deal with all the time- when to cut costs because the value is not there. With contracts being guaranteed in the NHL and no more compliance buyouts to be used NHL GMs have but two tools to use, a regular buyout that will affect the salary cap at a reduced rate longer term, or holding firm on contract length. The latter is the one that should be discussed, and aas Mirtle says ‘when are GMs going to get ruthless about letting players go’.
The Jets have some of those players where Kevin Cheveldayoff will have his resolve and level of ‘ruthlessness’ tested.
UFA Players
Stafford Tlusty Frolik Slater Stempniak Halischuk Pardy
RFA Players
O’Dell Peluso Postma Ellerby Chairot Burmistrov
Next Year
UFA Players
Byfuglien Ladd Clitsome Harrison
RFA Players
Scheifele Trouba Hutchinson
The Potential Future
Copp Ehlers Morrissey Armia Petan Helleybuck Kosmachuk Lemiuex
The balancing act that Chevy has to do is pretty simple to see but hard to accomplish: fit some of this year’s UFA players for term and salary that allows for cap room when or if Buff, Ladd, Trouba, Scheifele and Hutch all need new deals.
Drew Stafford and Michael Frolik may be the text book cases studies for what James Mirtle is trying to explain with contracts: cost and term versus age and production. GMs need to start paying for what is coming not what has happened and the older a player gets the less likely it is they will produce like they were when younger. The ones that do- they are the elite, the outliers from the statistical norm, the genetic exceptions that allow the defiance of the effects of age.
When considering Stafford and Frolik look at age and production and then contract value and then some history. Since the 2005-06 season here is the list of players active and inactive who have had more than 15 goals, more than 25 assists, more than 45 points and played more than 70 games in a season to review against Stafford. Where does he fit going forward?
Here’s the list again in seasons played that match the same criteria. Now where do you fit Stafford in?
The funny thing when using these two particular players is that the search criteria based on production is almost the same for Frolik. He is scores a bit less than Stafford but that isn’t where his value lies though, it’s his 200’ game and special teams play. The list gets even longer when you drop the numbers and age bracket for Frolik, who is two years younger than Stafford.
So with Frolik’s agent wanting 5 million for 5 years, and no real progress in over two seasons of negotiating to get something done long-term, is acquiring and then re-signing Stafford a smart move if it comes at the expense of losing Frolik?
It all depends on what Stafford wants and if that means term for some compensation consideration Chevy better be careful and listen to Mirtle. If Frolik is worth 25 million to the Jets what should Stafford be worth? More importantly what does Ladd’s value become next season?
Without drawing this out for each player listed above and boring you dear reader to death, who do you want at age 33? Ladd or Stafford? If you don’t say Ladd then I’m not sure what you’re looking at.
The Jets roster should adjust this off-season and it should be something meaningful enough that prospects see an opening they can earn. That’s the organizational future for teams that want to be strong and adaptable. It’s also because Chevy needs be one of the first GMs to become ruthless with his roster and realize that the salary cap means paying the ‘right players not any player…. For the Jets those players come down to 3 of the ones newly acquired this season plus two that come due next season. Here is what I wrote last year on Byfuglien and trading him, I still stand by it.
A GM has to know when his players are no longer foundation pieces and closer to window dressing before the rest of the league see’s it too. This is Chevy’s chance to begin shaping his team towards the future but it requires more than convincing players to play in Winnipeg. It means he will have to be very firm and disciplined on what players he does not want to play in Winnipeg- the ones who are past their prime production yet wanting the so-called ‘market value’.
The specifics on how he should do that will be discussed throughout the spring towards draft day, in future blogs. However, if you are choosing between Stafford and Frolik you better choose the latter as there’s less chance of it coming back to bite you in the ass.