Jets Host Lightning but can Jets Get Possession?
The Winnipeg Jets have not played a game since last Sunday’s loss in a hard fought battle to St. Louis. Between that game they have had practices, a day off, and a night of revelry at the annual Jets gala dinner to raise money for the True North foundation. Today though is time to get back to work as right now the rest of the central, due to playing games this past week has blown by the Jets. The task does no get any easier with the opposition, the Tampa Bay Lightning.
In this week off we have had time to see some early season look at NHL teams and where they sit based on some small sample size data- the Jets aren’t pretty.
Basically if you had to describe the Jets season thus far it would be mediocre play with some lucky breaks around goaltending. In fact, while it’s unsustainable, the Jets goaltending has been the best part of the team’s game.
That has to change as what made them successful seems to be elusive so far, early in the season. However taking a look at the Jets closer may reveal some insights.
What should be noted is that the Jets have the third worst differential in High Danger scoring chances at -17 only ahead of Edmonton and Calgary. But is that situation, or number spread evenly throughout the team?
When you look at the Jets individually with high danger scoring chances you will see this:
Enstrom -13 Little -11 Burmistrov -11 Ladd -9 Byfuglien -8
Now look at these players with the percentage of Offensive Zone starts:
Enstrom 50.79% Little 43.64% Brumistrov 38.64% Ladd 44.44% Byfuglien 53.62%
In comparison let’s look at some other players and where they are starting
Ehlers 58.14% Copp 76.19% Petan 64.71% Schiefele 57.14%
So what’s happening here is it appears Maurice is sheltering his younger players from the defensive zone and tough match-ups while giving his traditionally strong players more work. Remember all those arguments from this past summer about a youth movement versus veterans, well this is one of the by-products to ease the youth into the roster and roles.
This is what the first group looked like for zone starts last season (all stats at even strength)
Enstrom- 52.74% Little- 54.98% Ladd- 54.95% Byfuglien- 50.96% Frolik (who Burmi replaced) 54.27%
Now this is a season of data for the above as right now we can’t sort based on a date range or games played and I do not have that data at my disposal. But right now the Jets are trending in the wrong direction. So let’s look a bit deeper and ask another question- if the Jets are sheltering youth/rookies should they not be leading in shot attempt metrics.
Petan- 36.62% Copp- 49.3% Ehlers 59.02% Scheifele 58.59% Lowry-37.61% Burmistrov-35.71%
So what one could conclude here is that not only are the youth getting preferred zone starts but some of them are getting creamed possession-wise when they are down there. Off they come after Pavelec or Hutch save and on come the vets, starting in their own zone against the tough opposition. It isn’t going to get any easier tonight agains the Bolts when it comes to match-ups.
So what’s the solution?
Maurice has to shift his starts a bit and perhaps with last change, something he has had for only two games thus far this season, he can make his match-ups more efficient. The other thing is the Jets have to get their transition game going. Tonight might be a good game to watch defensive zone exits to see how the Jets are moving the puck. The youth, not named Ehelers and Scheifele, and this includes Lowry and Burmistrov need to get shots back at the opposition goalie for a whistle so that the big guns can come on in the offensive zone.
It’s a bit of a cycle as it repeats if the players don’t force some change on their own, through their individual play. Maurice needs to adjust too as right now the Jets are playing a risky game.
Remember those vets everyone was okay losing this off season?
Stempniak 53.33% corsi Tlusty 45.37% corsi
Stempniak 53.33% Ozone starts Tlusty 48.15% Ozone starts Stempniak +1 HDSC Tlsuty -1 HDSC
Just worth noting and maybe that’s why Winnipeg’s name is popping up with scouting and trade rumours this early, only a few more games to use Petan before he can be sent down without burning a year off his deal.
Anticipated lines as per Ken Wiebe
Ladd Little Wheeler Perreault, Scheifele Ehlers Burmistrov Lowry Stafford Thorburn Copp Petan/Peluso
Enstrom Byfuglien Chiarot Myers Stuart Trouba
Pavelec