Part II- Jets Catch and Release
In the last piece the short-term look at the 8 players(all forwards) who could be with the team or gone were presented. The discussion looked at the top 3 of the list in terms of salary and importance- Frolik, Stafford and Tlusty. It can be read here- Jets Catch and Release Part I.
The summary is this: Jets GM Kevin Cheveldayoff should look long and hard at how Tlusty reversed his effectiveness after the trade to from Calarolina, Frolik should not be released at the expense of retaining Stafford and the latter should be looked at very very carefully in regards to salary and term.
That leaves the other guys, Galiardi, Halishuk, Stempniak, Slater and Burmistrov. Below are their HERO charts from the last piece all courtesy of the great work from Mimico Hero
Knowing that these types of players are essentially interchangeable parts for teams as they try to round out their rosters is there reason to swap parts?
The obvious player to retain would be Lee Stempniak. After he was traded to Winnipeg the stories leaked out that the Jets had been looking at him in the previous off-season but he elected to sign with the Rangers, an obvious preference for anyone. Does that change now?
His expiring deal is at $900,000 and that’s a decline from the previous deals that had him averaging 2.2 million over the previous four seasons. Is he worth more? Yes he is to a team like the Jets but at age 32 any question of value has to include duration. Jim Slater is just a year older and does anyone want to see him retained over Stempniak?
The issue here for Chevy is to proceed with caution as any agent who is aware of what Stempniak brings to game will be trying for three years and that’s not the duration the Jets should want. A maximum of 2 years for a total of 2.5 million or less would be preferable. Before this deal is done an examination of Stempniak should be undertaken. His shooting percentage doubled when he came to Winnipeg and he had 55% of his point in the 18 games he played in a Jets uniform. As with Stafford, was that a hot streak or something else, something that can be attributed to the roster, system and environment rather than luck.
Using Slater as an age comparable for Stempniak is a nice segue to visit his future with the Jets. If you look at his HERO chart the immediate thought for Jim is ‘the end is near’. While Slater is the kind of player you never want to make a hard decision about, that reason is solely because of who he is, not what he is. Slater meets all the ‘eye-test’ criteria of being ‘that guy’- some one who battles, does the dirty work, and brings heart and soul. He did it even more so off the ice as no player from the old Atlanta regime embraced the city and it’s people more than Jim. Reality bites though and it’s time to cut ties with the life-long Thrasher-Jet.
The other players then come down to recent acquisitions in Halischuk and Galiardi. While Galiardi never seemed to get ice-time some thought he deserved (the Paul Postma of the offence) Halischuk played a depth utility role while fighting injury. The difference between these two is that Galiardi does a much better job at suppressing shots and chances while having a better effect on the team generating shots. If you have to take one back who is it?
This question presents an interesting challenge for the GM- keep a player who is more effective at suppressing chances for depth or the guy who is less statistically valuable but preferred but the coach? With deals of $750k and $725k the dollars are not hazardous but the roles and positions could be if one or two are kept. It begs another question- do the Jets need any more placeholders for the roster?
Removing these two players from the team opens up two spots for prospects to compete for during training camp. Players such as Kosmachuk and Joel Armia, acquired in the Kane trade, need to have a chance and despite the relative affordability of Halischuk and Galiardi the cost is clogging the development pipe.
That development pipe is ready to start delivering players to the roster but there has to be room within the roster. It’s also the GMs job to know when room is needed and to make it available and this season may be the first when the Jets will see strong competition for roster spots from within their own organization.
The final piece of this puzzle is Alexander Burmistrov, does he fit in anywhere?
As of today his role and return to the Jets may be looked more closely not that reports from the Winnipeg Free Press has reported there is ‘little progress in Frolik talks’ today. One argument that could be made is that Burmistrov represents a developing Frolik and that the he may one day be what Frolic is. For that to happen Burmistrov needs to accept his ceiling and his skill set along with where that puts him within a roster. Instead of hoping for second line minutes Burmistrov needs to accept that he has to start on the third line and do what he does best- suppress play. Is there offensive upside? Yes, but it will not be something that equals second line time or prestige, at least not to start. If bridges can be mended and the Jets bring him back Burmistrov could be a better version of both Halischuk and Galiardi as well as contributing more offensively. That will take some effort on both sides but most importantly a deep understanding of usage and where/how the player has succeeded in the past. It’s almost premature to talk of Burmistrov as there is so much that is unknown about his status and the Jets interest but as the clock ticks down to UFA time and the draft, he’s a name that should be watched.
If everything stays similar to how the season ended with adjustments based on what has been discussed in the last two articles in this space the lines for the Jets might look like the following:
Ladd, Little Wheeler
Perreault Scheifele, Frolik
Stempniak Lowry ?????
Tlusty Copp Thorburn
(Burmistrov)
The interesting aspect of the Jets forwards is how there is now a drop of talent on the right side again and one that is unlikely to be filled by Dustin Byfuglien, at least it shouldn’t be. The options for addition on RW are interesting but far from start-studded, even more so if a GM is shopping for value. Take Eric Condra from Ottawa, he might make a decent addition if the dollars and term are right. Perhaps another might be Richardson or Downie who like Condra could come in cheaper than Stafford and have just as big an effect.
While the summer of 2013 was supposed to be the one with major change and moves for the Jets the summer of 2015 holds plenty of intrigue as well. There should be a change with forwards and there likely will be but who that happens is still speculation. If the Jets are on the rise Chevy needs to be even more thorough in his approach. Just as much can go wrong as it can go right but what’s clear is state quo with this roster will not be enough in the tough central division.
Part III will cover the other variables and positions that might shape the changes to come as we inch closer to the active part of the NHL off-season.