Yes, the Avalanche are technically still in the hunt for a playoff spot, but it will take quite some doing for them to get there.
They have a 19-18-10 record and 48 points with 35 games remaining, of which 18 will be at the Pepsi Center and 17 on the road.
Assuming it will take a minimum of 40 wins and 91 points to claim the second wild-card spot in the West -- Dallas got in with 91 last season -- the Avalanche will need at least 43 points the rest of the way.
Is this team capable of winning 21 of the final 35 games, with almost all of them needed to come in regulation or overtime? Hard to fathom it happening when the Avalanche has managed to win as many as three games in a row twice.
So even though they've gone a respectable 10-5-4 in a 19-game stretch heading into Wednesday's home game against Boston, they were still five points behind Calgary for the final playoff position before Tuesday night's games.
That may not seem like much, but the Avalanche lost ground by going 1-2-2 on the just-completed road trip when they managed to score more than two goals in a game once. They also need to climb ahead of Los Angeles and Dallas, which they trailed by four and one point, respectively, after their 3-1 loss Monday in St. Louis.
Perhaps as significant, the Avalanche have 14 wins in regulation or overtime, also known as ROW in the standings. Shootout wins get tossed in the event of a tie and Calgary (22 ROW wins), Los Angeles and Dallas (19 each) are way ahead in that category.
Goalies Semyon Varlamov and Calvin Pickard have played well enough to win more than they have, but the Avalanche still spend too much time in their own end, give up too many quality chances, and they don't score enough.
Except for Alex Tanguay, who leads the team in scoring with 31 points (13 goals, 18 assists) after missing most of last season with injuries, the "top six" forwards have been major disappointments. Matt Duchene and Jarome Iginla were expected to have more than 13 goals each at this juncture, but what's up with Gabriel Landeskog and Nathan MacKinnon (nine each) and Ryan O'Reilly (eight)?
The Avalanche went 2-for-15 on power plays during the five-game trip when another goal or two would have made all the difference. They rank 27th in the 30-team NHL with a 14.2 percent success rate and just 21 goals. The penalty killing wasn't very good on the trip with four goals allowed in 10 shorthanded situations, but it is seventh in the league at 83.8 percent (the goalies deserve plenty of credit for that).
The schedule is pretty tough the rest of the way too. After playing the Bruins, the Avalanche take off for the All-Star break and play Nashville twice next week. That's followed by a game at Dallas, a home game with Detroit, and a two-game road trip to Minnesota and Winnipeg.
Whether these guys have a realistic chance to make the playoffs could very well be determined by what happens in the next seven games.