THE JOB
Step into the WayBack Machine, and set the dial for June 2015—when Brandon Saad was the left wing on what may have been at that time the best line in hockey.
Fast forward a few months and—poof—Saad is gone, soon to be “replaced… by a clown car of converted right wings, learners, and lower line players.
If the Blackhawks want to be a better team at 5-on-5 this year and in the playoffs, they need the Toews/Hossa line to be better than it was last year—and more like it was from 2013-2015.
I might say 2012 to 2015, because it was early in that season that Saad came up from Rockford. But in this discussion, an important point is that Saad, with all his natural gifts, struggled mightily his first 20-25 games, playing with two future Hall of Famers. And this after a half season in the minors, and a couple of seasons of major junior hockey.
This is instructive because the transition from the AHL to the NHL is not always easy—gaudy minor league numbers don’t necessarily translate to the NHL. The jump is even harder from college—where everything is easier than pro hockey.
Thus, fans need to resist the NHL ’17 GM game of “plugging in… this guy or that because he had a good year in college last year or even in the AHL. It doesn’t work that way.
In fact, examining the list of possible candidates (at present and barring unforeseen moves), you see a group from which none may ever be more than a good third line player in the NHL.
In fact, if you examine, in a broader sense, where “productive… junior or college players typically slot in the NHL (if they make it at all), the odds are high—if they haven’t been consistently exceptional (a point a game or more) players year after year at the lower levels—they likely are not top 6 talents at the NHL level. There are exceptions—but the law of averages says production will fall off as a player matriculates to higher levels, before finally settling in at the NHL (if they get that far).
THE CURRENT CROP OF CANDIDATES
Richard Panik Age: 25 Ht/Wt: 6’1…, 210 Shoots: L Best position: RW/LW Pro experience: 4 years
STRENGTHS: Good size/speed combination, throws the body willingly and well, seems to have decent hockey sense, can be especially effective if he embraces a physical role
WEAKNESSES: The puck seems like a hand grenade on his blade at times; not a very good finisher? Might be better/more comfortable offensively on the right side? Production has dipped at every level since coming to North America, Hawks are his third pro organization in 4 years.
Nick Schmaltz Age: 20 Ht/Wt: 6’0…, 190 Shoots: R Best position: C/RW Pro Experience: 0
STRENGTHS: Above average speed, very good stickhandler and passer; improving defensive awareness/commitment
WEAKNESSES: Not big, has a reputation for being contact averse (at the college/junior level) and has no pro experience
Tyler Motte Age: 21 Ht/Wt: 5’10…, 190 Best position: LW/C Pro experience: 1 (played a handful of games in Rockford last year)
STRENGTHS: Speed, some skill, play recognition; play/production has elevated with more skilled linemates (at college level)
WEAKNESSES: Almost zero pro experience, defense a work in progress
Mark McNeill Age: 23 Ht/Wt: 6’2, 210 Best position: RW/C Pro experience: 4
STRENGTHS: Can really shoot the puck, decent size/speed combination, can play a physical style (but generally in the AHL has not), decent AHL numbers last two seasons, may be a decent faceoff guy in the NHL
WEAKNESSES: Has not seen much if any time at LW, OK to good at a lot of things (in the AHL), not great at any.
HANDICAPPING THE RACE
Panik is probably the default favorite.
He played mostly LW in 30 games last year with the Hawks. He can skate and agitate and is not devoid of skill—the question is, does he have enough skill to integrate with Toews and Marian Hossa and help get them back to previous levels offensively.
After that, I’m gonna say Motte is a dark horse because he has played (and produced, albeit in college) on the left side primarily. The issue here is it’s a TALL order for a kid with his level of experience to come in and perform acceptably in all aspects of the game—especially with the expectations of his coaches and linemates.
Then there are Schmaltz and McNeill, both righty shooters. Both came up as centers, both have played the right side secondarily. Not having seen a whole lot of either player, it’s hard to project how either would acclimate to the left side.
So, the learning/adjustment curve for both these players might be a bit (or a lot) higher than it is for the more left-wing experienced players like Panik or Motte.
Are there other candidates?
Sure, you can rearrange the deck chairs and move Artemi Panarin up, but then this audition is for the left side of the Kane Anisimov line. So, same deal.
Anisimov has played some left wing in the past. That is a possibility, but then there are no surefire replacements for him at pivot on the Kane line.
What I heard a couple of weeks ago was that after losing out on Jimmy Vesey and Jiri Hudler—at least one of whom the Hawks thought they would land— they went into scramble mode. Saying encouraging things, but frantically trying to figure out the left wing issue that was only solved last year after sending a King’s Ransom to Winnipeg for the Andrew Ladd rental.
If you are in NHL ’17 GM Mode, and think all will be well in the Top 6, are ANY of the above candidates as good today as Andrew Ladd. Answer: no. Not even close.
Are they, as a group, better today than Ladd, Andrew Shaw, Teuvo Teravainen and Marko Dano? Answer: no.
So, again, barring an unlikely emergence this year of one of the aforementioned “youths… as a top NHL left wing, capable of 50 points+ and generally mistake free 200’ hockey in the NHL, this audition is for a temporary/placeholder job.
That—while the Hawks perhaps continue working on a trade from what is now a very deep NHL blueline, augmented by 2-3 reasonable prospects in Ville Pokka, Viktor Svedberg and Gustav Forsling.
I’ll have more as I hear it.
JJ