The start of the process to buy out Alexander Semin that happened after I originally posted this has a significant impact on Ron Francis' summer objectives and priorities. I am inserting comments in bold to address these changes.
Twitter=@CanesandCoffee is “turned on.… I will start using the new site handle quite a bit during the NHL free agent frenzy, so please follow me there if interested.
Thank you to everyone who helped make my Canes and Coffee Kickstarter a success! For anyone who still wants to be part of the founding team, today is the last day to contribute to the Kickstarter. Per my site/schedule update inside the Kickstarter, if we can get a bit above the initial goal, it will enable us to do a bit bigger/better version of a summer event that we have planned for late July through August.
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To give the web developers some real content instead of the “Lorem ipsum…… stuff, I put up three articles (Hanifin pick, Wisniewski trade, Lack trade) on the new site last night.
With a draft weekend of work that saw Ron Francis add two potential 2015-16 NHL roster players without subtracting any (Khudobin out/Lack in is a wash for goalie position), the Canes are closer to having a roster for the October 8 season opener in Nashville. Francis did well adding a top 4 defenseman without making a new roster hole and adding only $2.8M in salary (when netted against $1.2M savings for Lack/Khudobin shuffle). These moves were financially positive, but unless he moves a big contract (bunch of Skinner chatter over weekend could still lead to something as could parting ways with Semin), I figure Francis’ budget right now is pretty tight. My best guess is that in free agency, he will be shopping for value amongst the options for a top 6 forward and possibly still another defenseman.
Unless Francis happens upon a deal that he cannot refuse to trade Cam Ward and gain some additional financial flexibility, I think the Canes are set in goal.
So I am going to write my free agent frenzy preview in two parts with one covering the blue line and the other the forward lines/slots.
The defense could still be a work in process with room for improvement, but the Wisniewski and Hanifin additions eliminate desperation to do more. They give Francis more chance to be opportunistic. In an ideal world, I think things slot like this:
_____/Faulk Hainsey/Wisniewski Hanifin/Liles Jordan, Murphy as depth
I think Hanifin slots as high as he earns in training camp on the left side. My wild guess without seeing him against NHL players yet is that he starts without a ton of pressure and overdone expectations on the left side of the 3rd pairing and works his way up from there as makes sense (not as forced). I am not sure budget will hold it, but I still think the “best… version of good/better/best for Canes is adding a partner for Faulk. This leaves a complementary veteran second pairing of Hainsey/Wisniewksi intact and leaves a veteran in Liles (would have to play off side) to help guide Hanifin. Per my blog before the draft weekend where I identified the need for a right shot defenseman and pegged Wisniewski as my first option, I think the most likely path to adding a partner for Faulk would be an old-fashioned hockey trade that saw Skinner traded for a similar age, similar quality defenseman who could pair with Faulk. I still think that could be possible with Hanifin to be taken at #5 and the Wisniewski trade, I think the urgency is less and the requirements slightly different. I like (and continue to like as a player) Phaneuf, but with Hanifin now in the fold, Francis is much more likely to shy away from the 6-year term on Phaneuf’s contract and to locking a player with a big contract into the top 4 for that long with younger options on the way. It could still happen but seems much less likely. With Hainsey and Wisniewski both having 2 years left on their current deals, I still think it is possible to add a longer-term partner for Faulk with the idea that room will open up in the top 4 about when the kids are ready.
With one "skill/scoring" type forward in Semin gone, I think the probability that Jeff Skinner stays is much much higher. If the media reports are correct, Francis did shop Skinner over the draft weekend but did not get a good enough offer. With Semin gone, I think Francis probably wants even more which makes it more likely that Skinner could stay.
A wild card in the whole thing is that there are some pretty good fits for Faulk’s first pairing available in the free agent market. The issue here is likely to be both term and price, but I imagine that Francis will at least make a few calls.
All of the following are veteran left shot D with at least top 4 qualifications (could be a bit of a stretch to call some a true top pairing defenseman at this stage of their careers):
Christian Ehrhoff. He signed a discounted $4M, 1-year deal with the Pens last year and went on to have a bit of a disappointing season mostly driven by injury issues. He is a skating, big minute, all-around defenseman who is still top 4 capable.
Paul Martin. He is 34 years old now, but is still a reliable top 4. If he wants maximum term and maximum $ (something like 4 years at $5M), I think Francis passes, but I think at least skill set-wise he could work.
Andrej Sekera. He fits obviously, but if there was a deal to be done, it seems more likely it would have happened in March before he was traded. I guess the wild card is that he really, truly loves Raleigh/the Canes organization and is willing to take a discount to come back. As a player who is in his prime and has not signed “the big contract yet…, that seems very unlikely.
Johnny Oduya. I am not sure he is really a top pairing defenseman, but he is good enough to be a solid top 4 on a team that mostly only used 4 and won the Cup doing it. He seems likely to cash in big time and be priced at a premium to his true level of play after having a great May and June.
Francois Beauchemin. He is 35 years old (like Martin) and maybe not a true top pairing defenseman at this stage of his career, but he was a top 4 on a good Anaheim team that was in the lead pack in the regular season standings. He is another player likely to price expensive and maybe way too long because of his track record. But if that proves to be not the case, he could be a decent 2-year bridge player to get to the youth on the way.
So what does all of this say about Hanifin? I think the right thing to do is slot Hanifin in the 3rd pairing and let him learn and grow without a ton of pressure in October. As good as he is projected to be, his high-end hockey experience is one year of college hockey and he is a young 18-year-old. If pulls and Ekblad and is ready for a bigger role out of the gate, Francis might have to shuffle things a bit and maybe even trade a defenseman, but that is a good problem to have.
What will actually happen?
I think the need is still there to add (at the right price) a partner for Justin Faulk, but I think this is likely to take a back seat at least short-term to adding a forward or two. The interesting flip side is that at least in terms of salary to be paid in 2015-16, the Canes did save $4.7M. (Note that $2.3M was not really saved but rather scheduled out into later years.)
--I think the probability is low that Francis will pluck one of these players out of the free agent frenzy. When he added Wisniewski, he mostly eliminated the “must do something on D,… and still carrying all of the big contracts, I doubt he has budget to fit one of these players.
--This said, IF (big IF) one of these players was enticed by a chance to slot in a 1st pairing role and became available for reasonable price and term, just maybe…
--I think there is still a chance that Francis adds one more depth defenseman if he can get one for cheap. Again, it is not an urgent requirement/’must do.’ He has six defenseman with NHL experience under contract (Faulk, Wisniewski, Hainsey, Liles, Murphy, Jordan) plus Hanifin. But with minimal NHL-ready depth in the system, I think it is very possible that Francis adds one more veteran depth defenseman to get to eight with the flexibility to send Murphy (and theoretically Hanifin) to the AHL. With Wisniewski more offense than defense and Hanifin and Liles somewhat similar, I think the job description here is a cheap #5 type who could step into the top 4 maybe and can play PK. I would not be surprised at all to see Tim Gleason return to fill this role if it becomes available.
I think it is now even more likely that Francis will shop for more of a depth defenseman instead of a true top pairing defenseman.
So in the end, I think Francis shops the high-end free agent options to add a partner for Faulk, but most likely does not find a deal he can do financially. He also continues to (without an ultimatum or any desperation) explore options to trade Jeff Skinner. With Wisniewski and Hanifin in tow, I think the balance shifts more to “a good return… from maybe being more “need to add defense… prior to the two blue line additions over the weekend. If Skinner does go for a defenseman, I think the resume is that of a young left shot defenseman who is top 4 capable now (not a prospect) in which case you enter camp figuring out two pairs from Faulk and Wisniewski on the right side and Hainsey and the addition on the left side. More likely, at least the beginning of the free agent period is slow on the defense side of the ledger for the Canes and sees them move in later to shop opportunistically for a decent value addition to provide a bit more veteran depth and another penalty killer.
What say you Canes fans? Do you think there is any chance at all that Francis bids for and wins one of the higher-end defenseman who could pair with Faulk? Is there a crazy chance that Andrej Sekera did not find the grass greener on the other side in big city life and yearns to return to Raleigh and is willing to take a bit of a discount to do so? Where do you think Hanifin slots? Do you think I am right that with Wisniewski and Hanifin already added that Francis will play things slow on the defense side at least until he gets a little more clarity at the forward position?
Finally, name one defenseman, or player if you want to jump ahead to part 2 covering the forwards, (I got Tim Gleason) that you think could be a Cane by the end of the weekend.
Twitter=@CanesandCoffee and still @CarolinaMatt63
Go Canes!