In many ways, the future of the NHL and hockey in general has never been brighter. When the league is discussing the prospects of expansion (short-term cash grab though it may be), it’s evidence owners and officials have confidence in the short-and-long-term viability of their business plan. However, there are a number of issues on the horizon with the potential to threaten the well-being of the top league and the sport itself. Let’s examine some of those – as well as some reasons for optimism – as we close out 2015:
The confidence-builder: Love of the game is stronger and more widespread than ever. One of the reasons the NHL is considering expansion is the continued growth of revenue from and interest in the product. The $4 billion-a-season threshold is no longer a pipe dream as it may have been a decade ago, and as fees related to expansion – in terms of teams in Las Vegas, Quebec City and Seattle, as well as the increased attention that will be paid to the European marketplace – roll in, the league’s bottom line will continue to improve. The implementation of the salary cap has guaranteed a degree of cost certainty, which is why NHL commissioner Gary Bettman has no shortage of wealthy businessmen prepared to buy into his vision.
The mon(k)ey wrench: The Canadian dollar. NHL deputy commissioner Bill Daly told the New York Times approximately a year ago “the league is obviously healthier when the (U.S. and Canadian) dollars are closer to par…. Since that time, Canada’s currency has nosedived into levels not seen since the 1990s: this week, it hovered around the 72-cents-for-every-American-dollar mark, and some economists believe it could drop even further, into the 68-70-cent range. Needless to say, this could have a catastrophic impact on the league if it remains at current levels. Bettman recently said the growth of the business somewhat offsets the slumping Canadian dollar, but a prolonged stretch would eventually cause headaches for players and teams on both sides of the border.
The confidence-builder: The NHL has made savvy technology-related moves. The league’s long-term broadcasting relationship with Rogers Media in Canada will add $5.2 billion to its coffers over the life of the 12-year contract the two parties signed two years ago, but a less-publicized business relationship could prove to be about as lucrative: the NHL’s agreement with Major League Baseball Advanced Media, baseball’s internet/technology arm. Beginning next year, the NHL will receive $100 million annually in return for allowing MLBAM to operate NHL.com. As part of the six-year deal, the NHL also gets a 7-10 percent stake in digital media company BAM Tech – a stake estimated by some to be worth somewhere in the neighborhood of $3-5 billion. That’s a great neighborhood to be in, and that money can only make the NHL a more attractive company to be involved with. The NHL has been great at embracing changing technologies, and for them to add this level of profitability on top of their technological connections speaks very well of league brass.
The mon(k)ey wrench: The concussion epidemic. The issue of concussions – their effect on athletes active and retired; and their impact on youth participation in sport – is not limited to the NHL alone. However, there’s no doubt the league and the game has to deal with facts and optics that are problematic. The lawsuit against the league currently being pursued by retired NHLers could conclude with a massive, multi-million-dollar settlement, and as more players come forward with stories of cognitive suffering, there may be more hockey parents wondering why they’re enrolling their children in an activity that may have terrible implications for their future. We’re already seeing that happen with the NFL and football in America – and although hockey doesn't appear to have the same degree of players dealing with severe head injuries, the NHL, NHLPA and hockey associations professional and amateur will be forced to confront hard truths about their game. The manner in which they address those truths could dictate participation levels for decades.
The confidence-builder: The changing face of the game – as personified by Canadiens star P.K. Subban – is a great harbinger of what hockey can be. The rise in popularity of Subban – an incredibly charismatic, endlessly decent young man – is a dream come true for the NHL and the sport. He’s only 26, but Subban already has established himself as a Canadiens and Canadian institution. He’s arguably the game’s best ambassador, he embraces the challenges that accompany that title, and his appeal to different races and cultures inspire those who might not otherwise give hockey a try to give hockey a try. The sport has been good to him, but he’s been at least as good back to it, and Subban’s rise and prominence have been one of the game’s biggest blessings.
The mon(k)ey wrench: The affordability of youth hockey is not moving in the right direction. A recent series by the National Post’s Michael Traikos – and the book “Selling The Dream: How Hockey Parents and Their Kids Are Paying the Price for Our National Obsession…, by The Hockey News Sr. Writer Ken Campbell – makes clear how expensive it is to raise a child who happens to be very good at hockey. The costs of bringing a kid through the elite hockey system in Canada – including live-in academies, clinics, travel and equipment – can reach or surpass $50,000 annually. At a time where interest in sports such as basketball and soccer is thriving because of the low cost associated with playing those games, seeing hockey go in the other direction should trouble anyone who wants it to attract the best athletes and appeal to the widest base. Making hockey more accessible must be among the top priorities for all the game’s stakeholders.