Follow @james_tanner123 Yesterday I had the idea to evaluate every team's third-line centre in order to see which teams have the best depth down the middle. With the help of the comments section, we were able to whittle the list down to the following. Full disclosure: this is a subjective list.
No team has played a game in several months, roster changes have occurred and some teams are in flux. Will Christian Dvorak make the Coyotes and centre their third line? Will Vladimir Sobotka return to the Blues and do the same? Will the Sabres use Reinhart at centre like they should? Or will my own evaluations prove they are right to play him on the wing? Will the Leafs stubbornly stick with Bozak?
In a lot of cases we're guessing here - but this can always be a starting point for further evaluation. I think depth is the key thing in a league beset by salary-cap induced parity, so this could be a valuable exercise.
Anaheim: Rickard Rakell Arizona : Christian Dvorak Boston : David Backes Buffalo: Sam Reinhart Calgary: MIkael Backlund Carolina: Elias Lindholm Chicago: Marcus Kruger Columbus: William Karlsson Colorado: Carl Soderberg Dallas: Radek Faksa Detroit: Riley Sheahan Edmonton: Leon Draisaitl Florida:Vincent Trochek LA: Trevor Lewis MN: M Koivu Montreal: David Desharnais New York: Kevin Hayes Long Island: Brock Nelson New Jersey: Pavel Zacha Nashville: Mike Fischer Ottawa: Jean-Gabriel Pageau Philly: Pierre Edouard Bellemare Pittsburgh: Nick Bonino San Jose: Thomas Hertl St. Louis: Patrik Berglund Tampa: Vladislev Namestnikov Toronto: Tyler Bozak Washington: Lars Eller Winnipeg: Matt Perreault Vancouver: Bo Horvat
The Following Stats are all 5v5 from Corsica.Hockey. and from last season. Hero-Charts from ownthepuck.blogspot.ca
Rookies:
The Coyotes (Dvorak) and Devils (Zacha) are likely to start the season with rookies as their third line centres. This means these teams are unlikely to be any good this year. The players they may have to use if the rookies are not ready are not very good and if they use the rookies, they can only realistically expect so much success.
Perhaps both players surprise and give their teams a much needed edge from the third line, but there's no counting on it and no way to evaluate them anyways.
Because third-liners don't get the same ice-time as first and second-line players, it's difficult to make any sense of raw numbers. For example, Brock Nelson has 21 assists last season, but is that any good? It'd be terrible for Tavares. It might be an OK amount for a 3C, however.
So by using P/60 we can get more context.
Among players who played min. 500 minutes, Jagr lead the league with a 2.82/ 60 and Panarin was 50th w/ 2.13.
If we look at the top 90 forwards, and use that as a cut-off (each team has 3 first-line forwards), then 1.99 P/60 is 1st line production. (These are individual points, btw).
1. Draisaitl 2.22 2. Trocheck 2.21 2. Bonino 2.07 4. Hertl 2.03 5. Rakell 1.94
24. Fisher 1.08 25. Lindholm .92 26. Lewis .74 27. Bellemare .71 28. Kruger .56
As you can see, only three players on this list provide first-line production. Draisaitl, Bonino and Hertl all basically provide their teams with a third centre capable of scoring at a first-line rate.
Expected Goals
In this category we look at expected goals. Expected goals are a stat that uses shot quality and and volume in an attempt to make a number that is predictive of future success.
Since real goals are always going to be a small-sample size subject to wild fluctuations of luck, this is an attempt to predict the future while accounting for that possibility.
xGF/60 (team while player is on ice)
1. Draisaitl 2.91 2. Lindholm 2.88 3. Hertl 2.87 4. Berglund 2.85 5. Perreult 2.84
24. Kruger 2.29 25. Horvat 2.27 26. Pageau 2.12 27. Bellemare 2.03 28. Soderberg 1.91
xGA/ 60 (Team, while player is on ice)
1. Koivu 1.82 2. Namestnikov 1.86 3. Fisher 1.97 4. Lewis 2.02 5. Bonino 2.05 Hertl 2.05
Note that Hertl is the only top-5 player in both xGF and xGA /60
24. Horvat 2.83 25. Nelson 2.83 26. Hayes 2.74 27. Bellemare 2.74 28. Soderberg 2.53
Note that 3 of the 5 players expected to help their team score the least are also expected to allow the most goals against (Horvat, Bellemare, Soderberg) We can conclude right away that Vancouver, Philadelphia and Colorado desperately need new 3rd-line centres.
xGF and xGA / 60 Differential
1. Hertl .82 2. Fisher .62 3. Lewis .54 4. Bonino .53 5. koivu .51 6. Namestnikov .50
20 Reinhart +.05 21. Trocheck +.03 Sheahan +.03 22. Kruger -.21 23. Hayes - .24 24. Nelson - .31 25. Pageau - .35 26. Horvat - .55 27. Soderberg - .62 28. Bellemare - .71
Tomorrow I will follow up with Possession stats, Raw Goals and Assists, Shot Totals and whatever else I feel like throwing in there, at which point we'll get going with some conclusions.
For now, just some thoughts: - Kruger is way worse than I thought. - Fisher is better than I would have thought. - Pageau and Reinhart are worse than I thought. - Bonino is perhaps one of the league's most criminally underrated players. - The Islanders need to play Grabovski ahead of Nelson. - Horvat should maybe be a winger. - Hertl is also a very underrated player.
Check out my twitter - there's a link at the top - I'll be tweeting out Hero Charts comparing all 28 of our 3Cs over the next couple days.