The Pittsburgh Penguins started the Mike Sullivan era with a 0-4 record. Since that poor start they have started to find better results (5-2-2). The current rate of success would comfortably place them in a playoff spot (108 point pace), but Pittsburgh is still playing catch up in the standings.
The glass half full approach is that they have some games in hand on some of the competition for the final wild card spots. Another positive (or negative depending on results) is that the Penguins have played the least amount of games in their own division in the entire NHL. Pittsburgh has only had eight games so far this year against divisional foes. For a team that is starting to play better while trying to make up ground this can be a very good thing.
Pittsburgh will play Carolina in two out of the next three games. Those are the kind of games that need to be victories.
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As far as Pittsburgh's last game against the Montreal Canadiens they played well for two periods and then sat on their lead. Marc-Andre Fleury was the main catalyst for why that strategy worked on Saturday night. Prior to the third period the Penguins were leading the shot attempt differential 38-25 at even-strength which is very good. In the third period Montreal hammered Pittsburgh 23-7. That isn't a sustainable method of protecting a one goal lead, but for that night it worked.
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Sidney Crosby's tangible offense has increased under Mike Sullivan but his process has as well.
The red line indicates when the coaching change was made this year and there is a very noticeable difference. Earlier in the year Crosby was playing more in his own end for the first time since the Michael Therrien era Penguins. It is safe to say that Sidney Crosby is back on track. It is now up to David Perron and Chris Kunitz to step it up so that more tangible offense can be cashed in.
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Here are a couple of interesting data maps that show where shot attempts are coming from and what the expected goal total for that player should be vs what they have.
.@GunnerStaal @sheldons465 pic.twitter.com/tfLL0rI3Ke
— DTM About Heart (@DTMAboutHeart) January 11, 2016
Sid is a little bit below what has been expected to this point but the important thing to keep in mind is that this is still heavily weighed by the Mike Johnston sample size from this year. I would anticipate his expected goals to keep increasing and his actual total to start matching expectations with his improved play under Sullivan.
Here is a where Phil Kessel has been able to generate shot attempts from and also what his expected goal output should be given those chances.
.@asad_hussain94 pic.twitter.com/WyeCtJNxzS
— DTM About Heart (@DTMAboutHeart) January 11, 2016
As you can see he is slightly below the expectation like Crosby but that seems about right when you remember some of the flubs on guaranteed goals from earlier in the year. Those flubs can easily become goals in the future and probably will. Like Sid his expected output should rise the more the Mike Sullivan sample grows.
Chris Kunitz he was missing from practice today.
Lines at #Pens practice → Plotnikov-Crosby-Perron Hornqvist-Malkin-Kessel Kuhnhackl-Bonino-Rust Porter-Cullen-Fehr
— Pittsburgh Penguins (@penguins) January 11, 2016
Updates on why that is when information becomes available
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Congratulations to Alexander Ovechkin on reaching 500 goals. His goal scoring ability in this era is something that is still underappreciated.
Highest Goals Per Game - Minimum 800 Career Games Mario Lemieux 0.75 Alex Ovechkin 0.63 Wayne Gretzky 0.60
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) January 11, 2016
One may argue that is pretty impressive company.
For my money I believe Alexander Ovechkin has the best shot of all time. One piece sticks certainly play a role in this, but that is nullified by the evolution of modern goaltending.
Thanks for reading!