It’s time for the Montreal Canadiens to renew hostilities with the Tampa Bay Lightning in what should be a terrific second round playoff matchup. While the Canadiens swept the Lightning in the first round of last year’s playoffs, it was closer than it seemed with the Canadiens winning 3 of 4 games by just one goal and that was without Ben Bishop in net. This year the Canadiens truly have their work cut out for them if they hope to advance once again to the Eastern Conference Finals
The Canadiens will beat the Lightning if...
* Carey Price continues to play otherworldly. The regular season against the Bolts was not kind to Price, going 0-4-1 with a 3.41 GAA and .906 SV%. However as we saw with the Ottawa Senators in the first round, what happens in the regular season stays in the regular season. The playoffs are a whole new bag of pucks and Carey Price will be ready.
* P.K. Subban brings his game up from good to Norris trophy level. The first round was very uneven for P.K, highlighted by the disastrous slash on Mark Stone. Game 2 was the P.K. we all know and love, delivering on all ends of the ice and beating Hammond with his howitzer shot. For the rest of the series though he seemed to be playing it safe. P.K usually thrives when the onus is on him and I expect another level of play from him in round 2..
* Max Pacioretty continually finds another gear as he recovers from his unofficial concussion. Game 6 vs the Sens was his best so far and the Canadiens will need major contributions from him if they hope to move on.
* By some miracle the Canadiens powerplay woes are solved. I’ve already suggested that the Canadiens bring Sergei Gonchar behind the bench to offer fresh ideas. Gonchar is the only current Hab with a Stanley Cup ring on his finger. While he is too slow to compete against the Lightning, they need to take his experience and get him to contribute off the ice (a la Denis Savard!).
* Desharnais' minutes are limited to about 14:00 a game and Lars Eller plays closer to 17:00. When GM Marc Bergevin signed Lars Eller to his extension last Summer, he talked about guys who get you to the playoffs and those that get you through it. Eller has proven to be the latter. The Canadiens 3rd & 4th lines are able to outplay their opponents. The Canadiens are at their best when they are able to roll 4 lines. Dale Weise, Brandon Prust and Devante Smith-Pelley must continue to engage and bring energy on and off the ice.
The Canadiens will be golfing sooner than later if...
* Carey Price comes back to earth or gets "Chris Kreider'd"
* Andrei Markov can no longer provide top pair minutes. There is not a Canadiens defenseman who is ready to consistently bring what Markov has done all year. Perhaps the Canadiens found a solution in game 6 by allowing Tom Gilbert to penalty kill with Subban, thereby allowing Therrien to conserve Markov’s energy.
* Eller continues to be the best forward on the Canadiens. While I love Eller’s play in the playoffs, the Canadiens are doomed if Pacioretty, Plekanec and Galchenyuk aren’t able to step up and offer significant contributions.
* The power play continues to be lost somewhere in the Bermuda triangle. Unlike the Boston Bruins in 2011, the Canadiens don't score enough even strength goals to be able to compensate from their poor play with the man advantage.
* The Canadiens get caught in a run ‘n gun game. While the Habs are fast, the Lightning are even faster and are very dangerous off the rush. The Canadiens have to stick to their game plan and slow down the game.
* Ben Bishop continues his dominance over the Canadiens. Ben Bishop is a big goaltender, much like Craig Anderson. For some reason the Habs seem to have trouble scoring on these types of goalies.
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The last game of the regular season, the Canadiens could have rested Carey Price, they could have rested Andrei Markov and anyone else who was banged up. However they chose to put their best lineup in against the Toronto Maple Leafs who had nothing left to play for. It was a risky move, but with home ice in the division on the line, the Canadiens had something to fight for and won the game (even if it came down to a shootout). The Tampa Bay Lightning provide a formidable challenge, but with Carey Price in net we know that anything is possible. With the way Carey has played all season and through the playoffs, it’s just too hard to bet against him. For that reason alone, I’m choosing the Habs in 7.