After waiting five days and seeing eight teams start the playoffs yesterday, the Rangers and Penguins meet again in the post-season. Last year, the two sides met in the Division Finals with New York rallying from a 3-1 deficit to win the series. New York got off to a slow start, but went 42-12-3 after December 6 to be the top seed in the the East and the NHL. Pittsburgh got off to a strong start and was 23-9-5 when 2014 ended. In 2015, they went 24-18-5, including 4-9-2 their last 15 games of the season to barely earn the eighth seed.
All the rhetoric, hyperbole and written/spoken words (yes, I know, I was guilty of it too and will be guilty of it later in this article) ends at 7 pm tonight when the puck is dropped. When that happens, pretty much everything written can be tossed in the trash, since game action has started. This is the best time of year, Playoff Hockey Time. After the changes during the off- and in-season, slow start and hot play thereafter was just a lead-in to the second season. This is where making or the failure to make the simple play, the dump in and the chase, the dive to keep a puck in or get it out of your zone, the picking up your man in the neutral zone or in your own zone to prevent him from cruising down the slot, can be the difference between winning and losing.
Can you feel it? It’s that tangible feeling that’s a low roar in NY right now, limited to us, the faithful, who follow this team day in and day out, night in and night out, though ironically the weather is more Fall-like than Spring-like, but right now, that pales in comparison to how we feel as the playoffs kick off. That feeling will build if/when (I hope) the Rangers move to the next round. As they hopefully move up the ladder, the bandwagon will get bigger and bigger, until the City feels ready to explode with excitement and anticipation. All that is in the future, the here and now is to worry and take care of the Penguins.
I gave my behind the numbers article Tuesday, some of which will be referenced, and my overall Cup predictions . I am sure I could go and on, but what’s the point. We all know that information already, or if now, we will hear it over and over during the series. For this column, I will limit it to the various line combinations with some brief comments after them.
To help get you ready for the playoffs, enjoy the below videos:
First, some videos to raise the anticipation level a bit more.
Hockey Night in Canada 2015 Playoff Opening Montage
ajcastiglia: "I Am Blue York" NYR 2015 Stanley Cup Playoffs:
Forwards: 61 Rick Nash - 16 Derick Brassard - 36 Mats Zuccarello 20 Chris Kreider - 21 Derek Stepan - 10 J.T. Miller 62 Carl Hagelin - 13 Kevin Hayes - 26 Martin St. Louis 15 Tanner Glass - 28 Dominic Moore - 19 Jesper Fast
Extras: James Sheppard (healthy, if Glass or Fast struggle, Sheppard will get back in. I expect to play during the series and his ability to win draws will be called upon late in games).
(The Rangers offense finished third in the league in scoring, though they were inconsistent, mixing big games with stretches where they struggled to score. Early in, it was Rick Nash carrying the offense. As the season wore on, several contributed resulting 3.02 goals per game average. AV has as is his want kept the lines together for the most part but showed the willingness to shift personnel around, due to injuries or player struggles.
Like last year, New York got scoring from the top-three lines. The make up of those lines changed during the season, but they had eight players score at least 15 goals with Dominic Moore also tallying 10. MSL had his ups-and-downs, yet he still had 52 points, while the same can be said for Zucc, who may have been worried about getting a new deal, yet he ended up with 49 points. Kreider drives us a bit crazy with his inconsistency but he made major strides this year, and when he goes north-south, he plays like a big-time power forward, finishing with 46 points. Nash, who missed Wednesday's practice with the flu but should play Thursday, finished with 42 goals, though just five his last 23 games. We love to hate to Stepan, but he had 55 points in 68 games. The two players who had big-time seasons were Brassard, who more than lived up to his new deal with 19 goals and 41 assists, and Hayes, who started slow but finished with 30 points his last 39 games. Speed is a major asset of this group and one they will look to exploit against Pitt.
The fourth line will once again be a major key. Last year in the playoffs, the fourth line drove possession and forechecked the hell out of the opponent. Moore is the sole holdover while Fast will see PK time and need to be physical and Glass has to play like he did the past month. As noted above, Sheppard will end up getting into the lineup, seeing fourth line time, where he could replace Fast, if he fails to play physical or Glass, if he takes bad penalties or regresses back to the norm).
Defense 27 Ryan McDonagh - 5 Dan Girardi 18 Marc Staal - 22 Dan Boyle 93 Keith Yandle - 44 Matt Hunwick
Extras: Kevin Klein (recovering from broken left arm, suffered on march 11 via an Alexander Ovechkin slapshot. Timeframe for return was 4-6 weeks and he is at week 5. Hopefully he is back by Game 3) and Chris Summers (healthy).
(Other than Klein, the Rangers enter the playoffs healthy on the blue line. Staal missed the last two games with a rumored foot injury, which occurred on March 21, but that time off was more so for just rest than an actual injury. McDonagh struggled early adapting to being the captain and then with a shoulder injury, but has rounded into form and been the Mac Truck of old. Girardi gets ripped by Rangers; fans, yet all he does is play night in and night old against the opponents' top line while blocking shots (184) and doling out hits (224). Give me that effort every day of the week. Staal had his usual solid season and he too is locked up long-term. He has played with several partners this year and will be relied upon to mark - or as Pitt fans feel, mug and dole out several illegal cross-checks - Crosby as he did a year ago. Boyle has been the fans favorite whipping boy, struggling with AV's system and his move to NY. He was brought in to be a PP point man, but he failed to hold that role and was compared to Anton Stralman, who Boyle replaced in NY. Yandle came over at the trade deadline. He has shown that he is the team's best d-man at moving the puck and creating offensively but that compares with the risk of turnovers, which is his main bug-a-boo. As good as a passer Yandle is, he has to shoot move to open up spaces on the power play. Hunwick is solid and steady, stepping in lately for Klein and earlier in the year for McDonagh and Boyle. Getting Klein back will be big, as he likely was the team's steadiest d-man and has shown the ability to score at key moments. When he comes back, Hunwick will likely sit, but if Boyle struggles, I could see Klein getting in for Boyle. The key will be for the Rangers to turn the other cheek when necessary and mark Crosby and Malkin).
Goaltending 30 Henrik Lundqvist 33 Cam Talbot
(Lundqvist is well rested, having missed games from Feb. 2 to March 31 with his vascular injury. All Talbot in Hank's absence did was carry the team to a playoff berth and top seed in the league. Lundqvist started and won five of the last six games of the season, breaking down whatever rust he had, so he should be at the top of his game. In year's past, Lundqvist had been run down to the ground, but he enters the playoff fresh, which should help NY as they try and make a long run).
Penguins
Forwards 26 Daniel Winnik - 87 Sidney Crosby - 72 Patric Hornqvist 14 Chris Kunitz - 71 Evgeni Malkin - 39 David Perron 19 Beau Bennett - 16 Brandon Sutter - 23 Steve Downie 27 Craig Adams - 40 Maxim Lapierre - 17 Blake Comeau
Healthy Scratches - Scott Wilson, Nick Spaling
(For Pittsburgh, it begins and ends with Crosby and Malkin. The offense was good early but tailed off as the season wore on. Crosby had a down year for him, but still finished with 28 goals and 56 assists while Malkin had 70 points but in only 69 games, as he battled injuries, like many Penguins. Hornqvist, acquired on draft day for James Neal, scored 25 goals in 64 games. Beyond that, several struggled, including Kunitz, Perron, who got off to a good start after coming over from Edmonton and then tailed off, and Sutter to a certain extent, as he was very up-and-down. Once you get back the top-two lines, which includes Winnik, who brings a physical presence and was acquired around the deadline, the bottom-six doesn't scare you much. Spaling will replace Adams on the fourth line, as the two extras skated on the third and fourth line respectively in practice Wednesday. Pittsburgh missed Pascal Dupuis, who is out for the year with a blood clot in his lung. Crosby and Malkin, who also battled injuries, are still dangerous, so expect the top-two d-pairings to match up against them, shielding the third pairing).
Defense 7 Paul Martin - 12 Ben Lovejoy 4 Rob Scuderi - 28 Ian Cole 51 Derrick Pouliot - 44 Taylor Chorney
Healthy Scratches - Scott Harrington and Brian Dumoulin Injured: Kris Letang (concussion, out for playoffs), Christian Ehrhoff (concussion, could be back for game 2 or 3) and Olli Maatta (shoulder surgery. out for year)
(On paper, this is not a defense that scares you, as injuries have wreaked havoc with the top six. Letang, when healthy, is an elite d-man, especially offensively, but he is out for the rest of the year. Ehrhoff has struggled this year when healthy and now is coming off another concussion but could be back for Game 2 or 3. With those two out as well as Maatta, it's a mix-and-match on the Pitt blueline. That said, he wil miss the first game and could also be out game two of the series replaced by Dumoulin. Martin and Scuderi are well known and Pouliot may be the most talented of the six but beyond that, there are major question marks. The lack of foot speed is something the Rangers will look to exploit plus they should be able to cycle the puck as well. Scuderi falls into that lack of foot speed bucket but he is a veteran, smart d-man. Getting Ehrhoff back would be a big boost for the Penguins, but his injury history makes him a major question mark. There was no way Pitt was going to match the deals given to Matt Niskanen and Brooks Orpik, but boy could they use each right now, same with Simon Despres, who was dealt for Lovejoy).
Goaltenders Marc-andre Fleury Thomas Greiss
(Fleury posted a 2.32 goals-against average and .920 save percentage along with a league tying 10 shutouts, but slumped down the stretch, like much of the team, MAF won just two of his last eight starts, but one win was a shutout to end the season. Fleury has a Cup, but since then he has been average at times in the post-season, though he was solid least year even as Pitt lost the series to NY. Even if he struggles, it's doubtful Mike Johnston goes to Greiss, who didn't have a good year after playing well in Phoenix last season. For Pitt to win, Fleury will have to stand on his head to hold off a strong NY squad, who figures to come in waves through the neutral zone).
PP Units:
McDonagh-Yandle, Nash-Brassard-Zuccarello Boyle-Girardi, Kreider-Stepan-St. Louis
Pouliot-Brassard-Zucc-McDonagh-Richards Nash-Stepan-St. Louis-Girardi-Moore
(The Rangers had a stretch earlier in the year when the PP was humming at about a 20 per cent success rate but that was a long-time ago. Changes in personnel and combinations failed to to yield consistent success. The main issue is the inability to gain the zone, as the opponents pack the blue line, blunting the Rangers speed. The team acquired Keith Yandle to help the PP, but he tends to be too much of a facilitator rather than a shooter, which is what the PP really needs. In addition, the Rangers need to put a big body - either Hayes or Kreider rather than Nash - in front to create traffic. To that regard I am surprised Hayes isn't on one of the units and wouldn't be shocked if Boyle or Girardi are taken off the PP with Hayes added on and Stepan moved to the point They will be challenged by a strong Pitt penalty killing unit that finished third in the league).
Martin-Malkin-Perron-Crosby-Hornqvist Cole-Pouliot-Kunitz-Downie-Bennett
Pittsburgh could roll out Martin-Malkin-Perron-Crosby-Hornqvist with Cole-Doumoulin-Kunitz-Downie-Bennett on the second pairing. If Ehrhoff can go, look for Perron to be moved to the second unit. If both Ehrhoff and Pouliot can go, look for those two on the first group with Martin and Perron on the second, replacing Doumoulin and Bennett.
(This could be the matchup that decides the series. Pittsburgh finished 10th in the league even with Crosby and Malkin, but the loss of Letang has a major impact on their man-advantage. Pouliot coming back helps and I would expect him to play on the top-unit either with or replacing Martin. If he plays with Martin, look for Perron to get moved to the second unit. If Ehrhoff plays, look for him to play the point on the second unit with Pouliot up, Perron down and Cole out. Johnston will mix-and-match to find the right combinations given all the changing personnel. Where the Rangers might be able to advantage is on the penalty kill, as the Penguins allowed 11 short-handed goals, tops in the league, and the Rangers surrendered six. New York has used Moore-Hagelin, Nash-Stepan and Fast-Glass as units with McDonagh and Girardi the top PK and Staal-Klein (or Staal-Boyle with Klein out) as the d-units. Whoever wins this battle, likely wins the series)
Playoff Schedule: New York Rangers (M1) vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (W2)
G1 Thurs., April 16 Pittsburgh @ NY Rangers, 7 p.m. ET/4 p.m. PT, CBC G2 Sat., April 18 Pittsburgh @ NY Rangers, 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT, CBC G3 Mon., April 20 NY Rangers @ Pittsburgh, 7 p.m. ET/4 p.m. PT, CBC G4 Wed., April 22 NY Rangers @ Pittsburgh, 7 p.m./4 p.m. PT, SN 360 G5* Fri., April 24 Pittsburgh @ NY Rangers, TBD, TBD G6* Sun., April 26 NY Rangers @ Pittsburgh, TBD, TBD G7* Tues., April 28 Pittsburgh @ NY Rangers, TBD, TBD
Possible Unsung Heroes: We all know how important Nash, Brassard, Stepan, Kreider and Hank are to the Rangers as well as Crosby, Malkin, Hornqvist and Fleury are to the Penguins. In addition, the play of Girardi and McDonagh for NY and Martin and Ehrhoff for Pittsburgh are keys. I want to focus on two players each, while not unsung, may be keys to the series.
For the Rangers, it's Hayes and Miller. Hayes' presence has made what was thought to be a weakness - center ice - into a strength. He has tremendous skills and good enough speed that he can turn defense into offense and create chances. AV has increased his responsibilities as the season wore on and now affords him the same respect as he does Brassard and Stepan. He should be able to take advantage of the matchups against the Pitt D, especially the bottom pairing. Miller allows MSL to stay on the third line. If he plays well, then no changes need to be made and the chemistry that has been built up lately can remain.
For Pitt. it's Winnik and Pouliot. Winnik gives the top line a physical presence and one who is able to do the dirty work while also possessing the skills to play with Crosby. He and Downie can use their size to agitate the Rangers and create traffic and havoc in front of Lundqvist. With Letang and Maatta out and Ehrhoff questionable, someone needs to step up on the blue line. Pouliot, who is coming back from his own injury, has the talent to do so. If he can be a reasonable or mild facsimile of Letang, that would go a long way towards Pitt spring an upset.
Edges:
Even-Strength - Rangers, big edge as seen in better 5-on-5 numbers
PP - Pitt, by a decent margin %wise, though the net diff was 10 goals
PK - Even, as two sides separated by .5 percent
Forwards - Rangers had eight players score at least 15 goals and 10 score 10 or more. As good as they were, if MSL and Zucc find their way, the offense could be even better. Pittsburgh was good early but slumped after the New Year. However, they have the names and pedigree who could cause some damage.
Defense - Rangers by a wide margin, partially aided by all the injuries on the Pitt blue line.
Goalie - Rangers, because of Hank, even though Fleury has a Cup. If NY gets off to a strong start, that gap widens.
Playoff Experience - lots of experience on both teams. New York has eight forwards who played key roles, four d-men and both goalies back who went to the Cup Finals last year. Pitt has Crosby, Malkin, Kunitz, Scuderi and Fleury who played key roles when they won the Cup. Plus, a decent part of the roster was on the team when they fell to NY last year.
Coaching - edge to Rangers as AV has been to the Finals twice before while Johnston is making his first playoff experience
Intangibles - mild edge to NY, solely because of home-ice and the experience of winning several elimination games the past few seasons. New York now has to deal with the expectations of being the favorite while Pitt is now in the unfamiliar role of underdog, which might be a benefit. The Rangers come into the playoffs while Pitt limped in. The Penguins are a better puck-possession team but as poor as the Rangers were, especially in the third period when they were 30th in the league, they were 35-0-1 when leading after two.
Prediction - Rangers winning in six and possibly five.
This time of year, you need to play hard and pay attention for every second you are on the ice, one slip up or lapse in concentration could mean the difference between winning a series and advancing or losing and going home.
It’s go time. Let’s Go Rangers!!! The Drive to the Stanley Cup begins tonight.