Edmonton is not as bad as their record indicates.
Yes, this is a team that hasn’t made the playoffs in 9 (almost 10) years. Yes, they always hover around the bottom of the NHL’s standings every flipping year. Yes, they are once again in that very position.
I know that.
However, they are also decimated by injury and have been all year. This is the team that is leading the NHL in man-games lost to injury and it happens to be some of their most impactful players getting hurt for extended periods. To borrow the format as seen on twitter it’s been:
October: Eberle November: McDavid, Schultz, Yakupov December: McDavid, Yakupov, Klefbom January: McDavid, Klefbom, Nugent-Hopkins February: Nugent-Hopkins, ???
We know the Oilers are going through February without RNH but who else gets added to that list is unknown at this time. All we can say for sure is that obviously it’s going to be someone important.
Nonetheless, the Oilers have a record of 19-24-4 and 43 points in 48 games. With a great number of those games having been 1 goal games and with the team only being 6 points out of 2nd place in the Pacific, it’s easy to see how things could be significantly different for the team if injuries hadn’t destroyed the roster.
Despite missing the most dynamic young player in hockey as well as their best defenseman for long stretches, the Oilers are still a middle of the pack team when it comes to possession. The club is 19th in CF% with 48.8% through 48 games. This is positive. It gives hope that eventually the core of this team can conceivably perform better than it has.
If we can also project quality starts from Talbot for the rest of the year, there’s another reason to believe this team can be better than it has been to date. The club is going to get a quality scorer and its top rearguard back at a time when their starter has been putting together quality games.
The real concern is if it’s too little too late. Unfortunately those 43 points (tied with Calgary) have been earned in more games than anyone else has played in the Pacific Division. Everybody has games in hand on the Oilers and it’s pretty unlikely that the 6 other teams all go on 4 game losing streaks just to even up the playing field. While Edmonton’s schedule slows down, there will be teams putting space between themselves and the Oilers in the standings.
I truly believe the Oilers could have been in the Playoff mix for the Pacific no differently than the Canucks, Coyotes, or Ducks this year. Unfortunately there have been catastrophic injuries to key players preventing it. They can shock us all when McDavid returns, but with RNH out it lessens the impact even he will make.
LINEUP
Since the Oilers refuse to play McDavid even though he’s healthy, the lines are going to continue to look like something Craig MacTavish dreamed up in the summer. Nilsson shouldn’t be allowed anywhere near an NHL net unless he becomes one of the on-ice attendants who puts it on the moorings. Even then, not in Edmonton please.
Hall-Draisaitl-Purcell Klinkhammer-Pouliot-Eberle Hendricks-Lander-Yakupov Kassian-Letestu-Pakarinen
Sekera-Fayne Nurse-Gryba Davidson-Schultz Hunt
Talbot OILERS KEYS TO THE GAME
1) Five on Five. As noted by Bob Stauffer, this game against the Ducks features 4 of the top 5 scorers at even strength. If we limit the list to people who have played at least 300 minutes 5v5 then it’s Draisaitl and Hall against Benn and Seguin tonight. Draisaitl is tied with Patrick Kane for Points/60 5v5 at 2.76 this year. Hall is 3rd in the NHL (2.63). Benn is 4th in the NHL (2.62). And, Seguin is 5th in the NHL (2.59). This should be a potent game offensively even without a lot of Power Plays. 5v5 scoring is so important because it’s difficult. The fact that these 4 players are so proficient makes them able to score on any given shift. That’s not something you can honestly say about most players in the NHL.
2) Net And Day. With Talbot going back in net there is a significant upgrade for the Oilers. It’s no secret that Nilsson has been struggling lately. The last game was stunningly bad and the shorty he allowed was baffling. Nilsson hasn’t given the Oilers a start in which he finished with a save percentage above .900 since December 6th. Talbot, meanwhile, had a .934 save percentage in December and has a .941 so far in January. Edmonton is so depleted that misteps in net are impossible to overcome. Talbot is the guy and he needs to be for the Oilers to maintain some semblance of hope.
3) That 2nd Line. In their first game back without RNH the 2nd line was completely caved in by the measure of shot attempts. Eberle finished the game with a shockingly bad 12% CF without the Nuge pushing the puck up ice. Now McLallan has been forced to try something different with that line. Pouliot will center the line with Klinkhammer on the left. Klink has picked up a few short-handed goals in the AHL. Maybe he comes back confident and willing to make plays. No matter which way you look at that line, it’s scary without an actual center. Good thing we have all that depth.
Puck drops tonight at 6:30 PM Mountain Time on Sportsnet West. Get Better, Connor!
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