The Oilers and the Panthers played each other less than a week ago and Edmonton came up short. That 4-2 loss had a little weak goaltending and some suspect defending, which might be the biggest difference not just in the game but in the two routes to success that these teams have undertaken.
Quite obviously Edmonton's route to success has yet to arrive at its final destination. The "Rebuild" (Whichever Version this is) has failed to deliver a quality team even a conservative 5 seasons later. During the period of 2009-Present the Panthers have been just as bad or worse than the Oil in 4 seasons.
While Katz's crack team of Hockey men gathered Lottery Picks at a pace that forced the NHL's hand into changing the rules, the Panthers were also selecting high in the Draft. Edmonton went 1, 1, 1, 7, 3 at the Entry Draft taking Hall, RNH, Yakupov, Nurse, and Draisaitl. Florida went 3, 3, 23, 2, 1 taking Gudbranson, Huberdeau, Matheson, Barkov, Ekblad.
In terms of top talent, I'd still take Edmonton's picks (Even Yak) but the Panthers went with a healthy mix of Defense and Forwards. Now Edmonton also added Oscar Klefbom at 19th Overall during this time but he is just now establishing himself as an NHL player.
But that's where the two franchises really diverge. On paper, at the very least, I think the Oilers have a much better forward group to build with, but on Defense and in net the Panthers are leaps and bounds better. I think you have to give them the nod, at least as of today.
Listed in order of Time on Ice per game, compare Edmonton to Florida on the blueline.
Justin Schultz 3-15-18 Jeff Petry 4-6-10 Oscar Klefbom 0-2-2 Andrew Ference 2-6-8 Nikita Nkitin 2-5-7 Mark Fayne 1-4-5
Brian Campbell 3-9-12 Dmitry Kulikov 1-11-12 Willie Mitchell 2-3-5 Aaron Ekblad 6-19-25 Erik Gudbranson 1-5-6 Dylan Olsen 2-6-8
The Panthers took their best young Defenseman and paired him with their best in Brian Campbell. Ekblad has played 601 of his 719 even strength minutes with the guy who has been leading their D since he arrived in Florida. By comparison, the Oilers have most recently used their best young Defenseman to be the defensively responsible portion of a pairing with the older Justin Schultz.
There's a, uh, slight difference in ability to teach top 4 Defensemen how to handle those responsibilities. And in terms of TOI/G, the Panthers are able to run their most experienced men out first before the kids. On the Oilers the Defense is the inverse. The most experienced players are playing behind less experienced player. That has a lot to do with Ference and Nikitin (more Nikitin than the Captain) not having enough of a step to keep up anymore.
In their top 3 Defensemen in TOI/G the Panthers have 2067 games of experience. The Oilers, on the other hand, have 486 games of experience (And Petry with 280 of that is on the verge of leaving).
The next obvious difference between why the Oilers continue to wallow in hopeless despair while the Panthers are fighting for that last Wildcard spot in the East is that they have a World Class Goaltender. I don't want to give them too much credit getting one of those. The Vancouver Canucks basically screwed up so bad that they gave the Panthers one for almost nothing.
Roberto Luongo has a .923 sv%. Ben Scrivens has a .895 sv%. I don't think I need to add more there.
LINEUP
Benoit Pouliot and 19 of his closest friends should suit up tonight in pretty much exactly the same order that they did the last time. Unless Gazdic gets a last minute green light then the team will continue trucking along trying to work out the kinks in their game. I expected Scrivens to keep playing but apparently it's Fasth.
Hall RNH Eberle Pouliot Roy Yak Hendricks Gordon Klinkhammer Fraser Lander Purcell
Ference Petry Klefbom Schultz Nikitin Fayne
Fasth
OILERS KEYS TO THE GAME
1) Poo. Benoit Pouliot might be taking an insane amount of dumb penalties but he can keep that up if he wants to keep scoring goals like a champ. I sincerely doubt he can keep things going but he's scored the last 5 Oiler goals and 7 in his last 7 games. That means if his season only started in January he would still be 4th on the team in Goal Scoring (sadly).
2) First Line Problems. The trio of Hall/RNH/Eberle are also showing a lot of life, really, but the puck hasn't been going in for them. They've factored into Pouliot's scoring but they need to start scoring themselves. The good news is that they have performed well from a possession stand point. They are creating chances and getting good zone time. Hall and RNH are too talented not to score eventually under those conditions.
3) Quit Jultzing Around. I have been extremely critical of Justin Schultz this season. Soon he will be the number 1 Defender on the team and he needs to cut out all of his bad habits: Add at least enough physicality to take a hit in order to make a play, stop watching the puck for 5-6 seconds after he passes it, develop some level of awareness on the ice. He's going to play a lot of hockey in the final quarter of the season. It would be nice of him to show progress now.
Puck drops at 5:08 PM Mountain Time on Sportsnet 1. Tank On!
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