When the Oilers take on the Blues tonight there is one thing they need to be sure to do: Stay out of the penalty box. The Blues lead the NHL with a crushing 26.2% rating on their Power Play. If teams take liberties with their players, the Blues are taking the preferred method of exacting revenge. They are scoring goals on the man advantage.
St Louis has scored 34 goals on the 5v4 this season. They are 2nd in the NHL in total goals in that game state. They are the highest scoring team in the Western Conference in total goal scoring so it shouldn’t be a surprise but they are wizards on the PP. Currently the Blues have the 3rd highest shot rate in the NHL on the 5v4 at 57.7/60 minutes. Compare that with 18th ranked Edmonton at 49 shots/60 minutes.
In unblocked shot attempts on the PP the Blues are 4th highest at 80.5 Fenwick events/60 minutes. Using the Oilers as a comparison, Edmonton is 17th ranked at 70.6/60 in the same metric. They are creating a significant number of looks. In terms of total Corsi events, so now including blocked shots, the Blues generate 103.8/60 while the Oilers create 97.5/60 minutes.
They keep the puck in the offensive zone a lot, they get a lot of unblocked attempts, and they hit the net often. Their big 4 on the PP are Shattenkirk, Steen, Tarasenko, and Backes. Shattenkirik is tied for the lead in NHL scoring (both forwards and defense) on the 5v4 PP with 19 points. He is a Power Play Wizard. Tarasenko is a starlet in the league and Backes has potted 8 5v4 goals this season. Comparatively, Jordan Eberle and Purcell lead the Oilers with 7 points each 5v4.
The two Power Plays could not be further apart unless Luke Gazdic was taking regular reps on the top unit. Side by side the Blues make the Oilers look weak and pathetic. The good news is that under Nelson the PP has shown some signs of life. That said, it’s still not a good idea to spot St Louis a penalty or two tonight. They have proven to be lethal.
It’s not as if they are doing all of their scoring on the PP either. The Blues are an offensive powerhouse at Even strength too. St Louis has scored more goals at Even Strength than either Buffalo or Carolina have scored in total. This team is the total package when it comes to scoring. They have 3 lines that can score on you at any time and a top 4 on D that is ridiculous.
On paper this shouldn’t even be a close one.
LINEUP
The Oilers have opted to play Gazdic tonight to match up against the toughness that the Blues have in their roster. In the team’s infinite wisdom they have decided to break up their shutdown line against the highest scoring team in the West so that Gazdic can play alongside Hendricks and Gordon. This, naturally, flies in the face of common sense but the Oilers love their toughness. Of course now that I’ve mentioned it Gazdic will have the best game of his career and be single handedly responsible for the Oilers win tonight. So there’s that. I wonder if the team’s willingness to bypass the 4th line entirely to place Gazdic on the shutdown line means that they have no idea the Gordon line is actually a Shutdown line. They have to be aware that they are breaking up an actually useful line, right?
Hall RNH Eberle Pouliot Roy Yak Hendricks Gordon Gazdic Klinkhammer Lander Purcell
Ference Petry Klefbom Schultz Nikitin Fayne
Scrivens
OILERS KEYS TO THE GAME
1) Play Nice. Already mentioned above. The Blues PP is cutting down opponents left right and center. They play an aggressive and in your face game and that can create frustration. If that leads to undisciplined play then all the team is doing is playing right into their hand. Stay out of the box. Looking at you, Gazdic.
2) The New 4th. If the Oilers hope to match up against the Blues they will need all 4 lines contributing something. With Klinkhammer on the Lander line there’s an infusion of speed and physicality that Fraser couldn’t provide. Since they weakened one line to make this one, the new trio has to be better out there than before. They will invariably end up playing against Stastny, Backes, or Lehtera during the game. This is a big test.
3) Weak Ones. Scrivens let a couple of softies against him in the last game. Particularly weak was that seeing eye shot from the point. He needs a bounce back game. He’s done a good job over the last 5-6 starts of providing decent goaltending. The Oilers have nothing if they don’t have goaltending. He needs to turn in a solid effort tonight.
Puck drops tonight at 6:08 pm Mountain Time on Sportsnet West. Tank On!
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