Edmonton placed Anton Lander on waivers yesterday, signaling the return of Matt Hendricks. In addition, the team assigned Dillon Simpson back to the Condors, which should mean the return of Kris Russell as well.
Given the state of the team right now, the influx of veteran players should in theory be helpful. Hendricks is a meat and potatoes kind of player. Kris Russell is going to…do Kris Russell things. Importantly, those two bring a combined 1063 NHL games of experience into the Oilers lineup. If there’s any time that a team needs veteran leadership it’s going to be in the middle of a losing streak.
Hendricks hasn’t played a single game this season, but he’s been used as part of the defensive zone specialty line since arriving on the Oilers. He’s going to step into Lander’s spot on the lineup and we should expect a more physical performance from that 4LW spot, but otherwise Lander was doing an OK job. The problem with Lander this year hasn’t really been his offense so much as it has been that he was unable to outperform his history.
Lander just hasn’t done enough this season to overcome the disaster that was 2015-2016. Even though he was one of Edmonton’s best faceoff men, it just isnt enough. Lander is one of those weird players that obviously has enough talent to be a very good AHL player, can do a couple things pretty well at the NHL level, but still loses too much in the translation to be an everyday player. I think he’s better than a tweener, but not good enough to be more than a 4th liner.
Kris Russell’s imminent return adds a defender who happens to be at the bottom of every major fancy stat category, but he’s someone plays confidently (maybe more than he should) with the puck. Benning has been looking more comfortable lately and even laid out two members of the Kings in the last game, but has had his fair share of shaky moments. Let’s see if Russell’s return displaces Benning or if it pushes Gryba to the pressbox, but right now indications are it will likely be Gryba.
Another player who looks to be in tonight is Drake Caggiula. The diminutive college free agent was better than a point per game over his final two seasons with the University of North Dakota. He was one of the best Oilers in the Young Stars tournament. And, in the preseason he looked pretty effective as a volume shooter and complement to Edmonton’s offensive players.
Caggiula has spent the bulk of his college career on the left wing, but the Oilers wanted him to train in the summer as a center. The hope is that eventually he will take the 3C spot and Draisaitl will play on the wing. At this point I’m not going to say no to trying it, but word is that Pouliot is coming out for tonight’s game. I’m not saying that’s a good strategy long-term (because it isnt) but Pouliot has not been playing the way he has in the past and his effectiveness is at an all-time low.
Edmonton needs a boost. One of these three men just might be able to provide it.
LINEUP
With Hendricks and Russell presumably returning to duty the lineup should look something like this. A report from Jim Matheson suggests that Pouliot might be sitting as Drake Caggiula draws in. Pitlick, Gryba, and Pouliot were all out for the optional skate, which seems to indicate they are out.
UPDATE: I have assembled the lines as I think they will play out based on the limited info we have. Caggiula will play C. McDavid will play with Puljujarvi and Lucic.
Lucic McDavid Puljujarvi Draisaitl RNH Eberle Maroon Caggiula Kassian Hendricks Letestu Slepyshev
Klefbom Larsson Sekera Russell Nurse Benning
Talbot Gustavsson
OILERS KEYS TO THE GAME
1) She’s Come Undone. This losing streak is testing the convenient narrative that the team’s culture was fixed with all the work Chiarelli did in the summer. 5 losses in a row and 8 in the last 10 games is enough to erase the great start that the team had. Now the lead in points has been erased and the Pacific really is anybody’s to grab again. Edmonton isnt out of the running anymore, but they have to fix this mess. They have now been awful for as long as they were good. Once the NHL settled into itself this team started falling apart. Where is the leadership and stability that the team paid so dearly to get? I want to know.
2) Some Puck Luck. In this particular 5 loss stretch the Oilers have directed 174 shots on net. They’ve only managed to produce 9 goals from that. It’s a measly 5.2% shooting over this stretch that is really hurting the Oilers. Over that same period they have only allowed 141 shots on net and gave up 18 goals. With the opposition shooting 12.8% there is going to be very little chance at winning games. We have a couple things going on here. At the same time as Edmonton’s goaltending has hit the skids, their shooting has fallen off the earth. I doubt everybody’s talent was suddenly drained like in SpaceJam. Our brains always try to create an explanation, so the first place we go is that the Oilers must be shooting from the outside on low percentage shots. Maybe. Maybe not. I sincerely believe this will start to correct itself though. The goals will come.
3) 5v5 Struggles. The Stars are not a particularly good team 5v5 this season. While they do have a lower Goals For percentage than the Oilers, it’s actually already higher than it will probably will remain unless they make some changes. They are ranked 24th across the board in Shot Attempt percentage, Unblocked Shot Attempt Percentage, and Shot Percentage. The Stars are consistently behind in the attack when the game is at evens. Their wheelhouse is on the man-advantage. If the Oilers can keep from spending unnecessary time in the penalty box then all indications are that they have the upper hand. Edmonton has been much better pressing the attack 5v5.
Puck drops tonight at 5 PM Mountain Time on City TV. Game On!
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