I wasn’t angry after the last game. I think I should have been angry, but instead I kind of felt like I was back at home from a long trip abroad. This was comfortable. I know THIS Oiler team. I am at home with these Oilers. That doesn’t mean I don’t want them to be better. I do.
I do think the Oilers have made significant improvements to their game overall. Even with all the struggles. Even with all those ridiculous gambles that aren’t paying off. This team has big gains on the 1st and 3rd pairing. Take away Schultz and replace him with Larsson. Even with Larsson’s deficiencies, that’s a big improvement. Take away rookie Nurse and replace him with this much more calm Nurse and that’s a big improvement. Now you return McDavid and Klefbom to the lineup at the same time. There’s 4 players who are either added or significantly more effective.
So the team is shooting like garbage right now. Nothing is going in the attacking net and at the same time Talbot is allowing 3-4 goals a night. That’s going to normalize. Edmonton has lost every game where they’ve put up 35+ shots on net. During those games they’ve heavily out-attempted the opposition. Even taking into account score effects, the team is putting pressure on clubs and not being rewarded for it.
Edmonton is 7th in 5v5 Shots for percentage, 7th in Fenwick for percentage, and 8th in Corsi for percentage. Even adjusted for score and venue the Oilers are still 9th in shot attempts percentage. This is a massive improvement over a year ago when Edmonton was 21st. In some very real ways the Oilers are doing better things on the ice. The fact that those things have not turned into a consistent stream of wins isn’t immediately concerning. The shot attempt game is a long one.
More concerning is that in expected goals for and scoring chance percentage the Oilers are still in the bottom 3rd of the league. There is something about the Oilers that is getting them to the offensive zone but not in position to create as many chances as they should. In addition, this team is allowing a higher percentage of chances against than one might expect. We’re less than 20 games in and I don’t have a great handle on that yet.
Is it related to having Benning playing over his head? Is Kris Russell allowing controlled zone entries too often? Is the Nuge line not generating enough 2nd and 3rd chances? These are the things that hopefully we will be able to find answers to as the season wears on.
LINEUP
Gustavsson gets the start tonight. No new info on the injured coming back except to say that several players were spotted skating with the team. Hopefully soon.
Maroon McDavid Eberle Lucic RNH Slepyshev Pouliot Draisaitl Puljujarvi Kassian Letestu Pitlick
Klefbom Larsson Sekera Benning Nurse Gryba
Gustavsson Talbot
OILERS KEYS TO THE GAME
1) Big Boy Hockey. The Oilers signed Milan Lucic to compete against the big heavy teams of the West. During this stretch that hasn’t been happening. It’s time the Oilers start seeing what they paid all that money and committed all those years for. Edmonton paid a hefty price to free up the room needed to land the big man. These are the games, against the Kings, that they need him to prove Chiarelli right in doing so. Edmonton’s quest to become bigger and in turn more competitive against the clubs that have been pushing them around has been a dream for years. Well, here we are. This club is certainly bigger. Now it needs to be noticeable in the games that matter.
2) Something Has To Give. Both the Oilers and the Kings have exactly the same record in the last 10, including 4 straight losses. These two teams are not performing at all right now, but somebody is going to win this game. Somebody is going to put it together enough to grab 2 points. Edmonton has been playing incomplete games. They go through long stretches of shot domination only to give up Grade A chances that result from carelessness. The Kings arent getting the same level of goaltending that they are used to and the results are some games that arent as close as they should be. Good news for the Oilers, Kopitar is still out with that arm injury. It’s one less dangerous player to be worried about, but they still have more than enough to get the job done. 3) Maroooooooooon. Probably the best deal Chiarelli has made in his life was to acquire Maroon at just 75% of the cap hit in exchange for a pile of dirty socks and some leftover Big Chew from the dregs of the packaging. He has proven to be a natural fit for Connor McDavid for some reason (I like to think it’s because he isn’t trying to outthink himself). He is essentially a point per game player with 97 over the last 2 seasons and he’s sporting a ridiculous 3.20 points per 60 minutes 5v5 with The McDavidian One. If you asked me a year ago who the best fit with the Wunderkind would be between Hall, Lucic, Pouliot, and Maroon, I sure as heck wouldn’t have guessed Maroon by a mile. He has become a real weapon for the Oilers. If you had to protect one today between him and Eberle, who would you pick?
Puck drops tonight at 8:30 PM Mountain Time on Sportsnet 360. Game On!
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