This is one of the most hyped games of the season so far. It’s the first time Connor McDavid will play in Toronto and the first meeting between the 2015 and 2016 1st overall picks. It’s McDavid vs Matthews and the future of Canadian hockey takes center stage.
Auston Matthews made an incredible debut with 4 goals in his first game in the NHL. It was spectacular and his 2nd goal was beautiful, controlling the puck and weaving through defenders like it was a scrimmage against a Jr team. Incredible. He has 10 points in 9 games this season, but he’s been held off the scoresheet for 3 games now.
Some are wondering if the young Leafs center has hit a wall. It’s way too early to start worrying about that, as far as I’m concerned. He’s a kid. The NHL is adapting to him as much as he’s adapting to it. Teams now have to respect Matthews as a legitimate scoring threat and that’s going to change the kind of competition and attention he sees. Even for 1st overall picks, the NHL is the best league in the world and it is tough for a teenager to make an impact in every game.
Good news for Leafs fans is that even during the last 3 pointless games, Matthews is generating shots on net. In fact, he is tops in the NHL (minimum 50 minutes) for 5v5 Shots per 60 minutes with 15.65 shots/60. That rate is really high, so we should expect it to drop off a bit, but there is nothing wrong with being a volume shooter.
Now, the Oilers counter this matchup with Connor McDavid. I don’t think these two are going to be on the same level, even though they are separated by just 2 points. I think McDavid’s peers will be the great NHL centermen of history. Right now it’s probably just between Crosby and him for who is the best player in the league.
He’s played the Leafs once before, picking up 5 points in that game. I expect he’s going to be very excited to play in front of friends and family tonight. That’s probably not a good thing for the Leafs in general. However, if there’s any ticket worth buying this season, it’s the one where Connor McDavid might have an *extra* jump in his step.
Connor McDavid is the engine driving the Oilers. The team is built around him. Every forward plays a role in which success is predicated on him being a scoring threat that game. At 19 years of age, just 8 months older than Matthews, McDavid is already carrying the entire weight of an NHL franchise on his back. And he just happens to be leading the league in scoring.
It’s all about speed with McDavid. As soon as he has space he can accelerate to speeds that defenders just cannot match. Good positioning only lasts so long because he’s constantly fluctuating speeds and can handle the puck so well.
LINEUP
There is a chance that Matt Benning makes his debut tonight against the Leafs. Gryba would sit. It seems the Oilers are going for mobility on that 3rd pairing.
Lucic McDavid Eberle Pouliot RNH Kassian Maroon Draisaitl Puljujarvi Lander Letestu Pitlick
Klefbom Larsson Sekera Russell Nurse Benning
Talbot Gustavsson
OILERS KEYS TO THE GAME
1) Where’d You Go, Ebs? The Edmonton Oilers made a lot of moves with the understanding that Jordan Eberle would be Connor McDavid’s go-to winger. He was supposed to be the trigger-man for McDavid and right now the shots are not going into the back of the net enough. It’s not as if 3 goals in 9 games is overly poor (still on pace for 27 on the year), but it’s more so about the fact that the line is creating significantly more opportunities for him to score than what he’s capitalized on. The optimistic expectations of Jordan Eberle was a potential 40 goal season playing alongside the best player in the game. He’s now gone 4 games in a row without a single point. He needs to step up.
2) Lack of Experience. The Maple Leafs aren’t a great team right now but it isn’t for a lack of talent. In this case I’d say it’s a distinct lack of experience. I’ve been watching young, talented teams for a long time. They can be real heartbreakers. Matthews, Marner, and Nylander are a fantastic trio to build around. They have hands, can skate, and will one day really push that Leafs team in the right direction. If the Oilers take them lightly, they could be burned. However, the Leafs top 6 forwards in average ice-time have a combined 698 games of NHL experience. Take away Bozak and it drops to just 254 NHL games (Same exercise for Edmonton yields 1813 NHL games in the top 6). It matters.
3) Andersen Struggles. You need very strong goaltending if you want to run the kids out there as much as the Leafs are doing. The problem is that they were not getting it. 57 goaltenders have played at least 2 games this year. Andersen and his backup Enroth are ranked 46th and 48th in save percentage. The good news is that the last two games in a row, he’s given the Leafs quality starts. If he keeps that up then his basement level save percentage is going to climb rapidly. Edmonton’s job will be to get to him early and bring the life out of the young Leafs.
Puck drops tonight at 5:30 PM Mountain Time on Sportsnet Oilers. Game On!
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