The Tampa Bay Lightning and Detroit Red Wings are getting set for Game One of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinal matchup, which will start on Thursday night at Amalie Arena.
With that in mind, here is Part One of a two-part preview for the series. In this blog, I’ll briefly discuss four reasons the Red Wings will walk out of this series as victors. Tomorrow, I’ll take the flip-side of that equation and look at reasons the Lightning will win. Without further ado...
Four Reasons the Detroit Red Wings Will Win the Series:
Reason #1: Experience Frequent readers know that I’m not a huge fan of ‘intangibles’ talk. I think there’s certainly some value in intangibles, but it’s difficult to quantify. Still, I’ll defer to the players on this one. Time and time again we hear that playoff experience matters. The Detroit Red Wings have a ton of it. They have in their front office, they have it on their bench, and they have it on the ice.
Consider for a moment that Detroit’s top two regular season scorers, Henrik Zetterberg and Pavel Datsyuk, have combined to suit up for 270 (!) postseason games in the National Hockey League. The Lightning’s top two scorers, Steven Stamkos and Tyler Johnson, have combined for 26. You have to move nine players deep on the Lightning’s scoring list before you get past the 270-game mark. The Red Wings have a bit of an advantage here, if it matters. And they couple it with an exciting blend of rookies and youthful exuberance. Detroit might just have a winning combination.
Reason #2: Lightning Injuries The Lightning’s blue line looks a little bit wonky right now. Victor Hedman, Matt Carle, and Anton Stralman are all ready to go, but players like Jason Garrison, Braydon Coburn, and Andrej Sustr all have question marks surrounding their status.
As the team sent Luke Witkowski back to Syracuse today, it appears as though either Coburn or Sustr (potentially both) is healthy enough to play. Garrison, on the other hand, won’t be ready to go for a little while yet. The questions become: How will the Lightning’s blue line, which has struggled at times over the last few seasons, adjust to the re-entry of bodies? How will Coburn adjust to his new surroundings? Can the Red Wings take advantage? Jon Cooper is going to have to manage the return of players who are jumping into a situation in which everybody else is already moving at 100mph. That's a tall task.
Reason #3: Goaltending Detroit head coach Mike Babcock surprised some when he announced that Petr Mrazek will be starting in Game One. That means Jimmy Howard, the team’s long-time number-one guy, will be sitting on the bench.
With Mrazek’s youth and inexperience comes a level of unpredictability. The 23-year-old already shut out the Lightning earlier this year, and compiled an impressive overall record of 16-9-2 in 29 appearances. His stat line, which shows a .918SV% and 2.38 goals-against average, stands out as positive as well. He’s never played in an NHL playoff game, but he shined in last year’s AHL playoffs. If he gets hot, the Lightning could be in trouble.
Reason #4: Possession The Lightning are one of the elite possession teams in hockey. While that’s all fine and good, the reality is that the Red Wings are one of the few teams that can match (and potentially beat) them in that department.
Per Puckalytics.com, the Lightning were the fourth best Corsi-for team in the league at five-on-five this season, evidenced by a 53.0CF%. The Red Wings? Well they sit third on that list with a 53.5CF%. The Bolts are looking at a possession heavyweight, one that has the ability to match them shot attempt for shot attempt. It’s going to be a lot of fun.
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As mentioned, I’ll be back tomorrow with a look at why the Lightning might be able to win this series. I think it’s only fair to paint both sides of the picture, as both teams have a legitimate shot of winning this matchup.
Thanks for reading!
Michael Stuart has been the Tampa Bay Lightning writer for HockeyBuzz since 2012. Visit his archive to read more or follow him on Twitter.