The Pittsburgh Penguins came up short in their bid for the Stanley Cup again this year. As with any year in a hard cap league there will be players moving in and players moving out. It is important for any franchise to analyze and decipher which direction the players should be going in.
Today I am going to focus on the defense position and more specifically an unrestricted free agent that I believe can help the Penguins in both the short term and long term.
The Penguins have a very solid foundation of defensemen with Kris Letang and Olli Maatta but they will need some help. Derrick Pouliot showed flashes of what he can bring to the table while Brian Dumoulin and Taylor Chorney were adequate in the roles they were thrown into during the playoffs.
Paul Martin and Christian Ehrhoff are both very good defensemen but they will be 34 and 33 years old respectively when the 2015-16 season begins. I would assume both players would be looking for term on their next contracts. This is where the Penguins would have to part ways and look to other options. You can’t pay for what a player did. You have to pay for what a player is going to do.
At the same time I don’t believe the Penguins can afford to lose both players without having a legitmate replacement. It is nice the Penguins have guys like Scott Harrington and Brian Dumoulin, but they aren’t worthy of eating top four minutes. Who is going to join Kris Letang, Olli Maatta, and Derrick Pouliot?
Enter Cody Franson.
Cody Franson has been the underappreciated defenseman who has been lost in the discussion while playing for some pretty terrible Toronto Maple Leafs teams. He returned to Nashville before the trade deadline and played quite well for the Predators down the stretch.
Franson is a 6’4… 215 pound right handed shot with solid puck skills, physicality, and a booming shot from the point that doesn’t require a huge windup.
Let’s take a look at his numbers:
Very encouraging especially when you consider what a dumpster fire Toronto has been the past few seasons. Everything looks good in the areas he can control. The only one that looks like it is on the low end is the ice time. For some reason both Toronto and Nashville have not given him more minutes. For some this will be a concern but I do not feel like it is. Nick Leddy is a recent example of a player having very good underlying numbers while not receiving big minutes from his prior team. I see no reason why Cody Franson cannot find similar success to what Nick Leddy is having with the Islanders.
For the most part a player cannot control his ice time or his usage. That is a decision that is left up to the coaching staff. All a player can do is go out and play. Here is how Cody Franson has done throughout his career in the roles that he has been placed in:
Anything over zero means that he has outperformed the role that he has been given. His entire career he has outperformed his role, sometimes significantly. This tells me that he is more than capable of taking on a bigger role with the next team he elects to sign with.
Cody Franson will be 28 years old to start the 2015-16 season. He was born one day after Sidney Crosby. If the Penguins were to make a competetive offer in the neighborhood of 5 years and 25.0M (basically the Paul Martin contract) that would place him at 33 years old when it expires. As mentioned above Paul Martin is 34 years old and Christian Ehrhoff is 33. Martin and Ehrhoff are both still effective players and I don’t see any reason why Franson won’t be for the next five years. Remember you need to pay for future performance not past performance.
It is also worth mentioning that the Penguins had interest in Franson before he was traded to Nashville this year. Pittsburgh was unable to meet the asking price via trade but they should be more than able to afford him on the market.
Some people aren’t going to want the Penguins to enter the UFA market for defensemen considering that they do have some younger guys looking to join the NHL, but the fact is most prospects don’t live up to the promise that is attached to them. Brian Dumoulin and Scott Harrington are not on the level of Olli Maatta, Derrick Pouliot, and perhaps even Simon Despres. Ben Lovejoy should be nowhere near the top four (or the team in general). To trust any one of them with top four minutes is very risky and a risk the team doesn’t have to take.
If both Paul Martin and Christian Ehrhoff move on that is 9.0M of cap space right off the bat. This doesn’t include other proper roster moves such as losing Scuderi via buyout/trade or Nick Spaling/Ben Lovejoy being traded. Money is a non issue here, especially when the value is fair and it is for an important part of the roster. It is OK to pay for talent that is good.
Maatta-Letang Pouliot-Franson Dumoulin-Cole Harrington
Five years, 25.0M. Cody Franson. Money well spent.
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