As we continue to inch closer to the draft and free agency period I will continue to take a glance at other team’s rosters and select certain players to evaluate and assess as potential candidates for Pittsburgh to acquire.
Today’s blog will highlight a player that I have been asked about multiple times on twitter, Arizona winger Mikkel Boedker.
His 2014-15 season was cut short by 37 games due to having his spleen removed.
Craig Morgan of Fox Sports Arizona is reporting that the contract talks between Arizona and Boedker have been moving slowly:
Jarrett Bousquet, the agent for Boedker said this weekend that talks with GM Don Maloney have remained positive with plenty of "back and forth on numbers and term," but he added that progress has been slow."I think there is a deal to be made," Bousquet said via text. "We have some time before the market resets so we will see what happens in the near future."
Bousquet said he hopes to meet with Maloney at the NHL Scouting Combine, which runs today through Saturday in Buffalo.
Mikkel Boedker is currently an RFA who is only one year away from being eligible for UFA status.
As for Boedker, the Coyotes are playing a tricky game the more the negotiations drag. Boedker is a restricted free agent but can become unrestricted next season. It is believed his camp is looking for a long-term deal from the Coyotes, but if the negotiations end up going to salary arbitration, Boedker could sign a one-year deal and then walk next year.
Mikkel Boedker has been in the NHL since 2008-09, but he started to receive over 17 minutes per game starting in 2012-13. Here is the obligatory HERO chart:
You can see that he does indeed play big minutes for Arizona during this time frame. He is on the lower third line level in possession while on the upper third line level with his offense at even strength.
I looked at his dCorsi for the previous three seasons and it was not encouraging:
2012-13: -7.09 2013-14: -5.77 2014-15: -10.03
He has underperformed severely in this increased role.
His even strength points per 60 from 2012-15 is 1.52. While it is second only to Martin Hanzal’s 1.71 among Arizona forwards with at least 100 games played it is still at a third line level while receiving first line minutes.
Boedker’s 5v5 offense is not terrific but when combined with his work on the power play he has produced 105 points in his last 175 games. That is a points per game average of 0.60 (top six level).
His power play time per game the past three years:
2012-13: 2:47 2013-14: 2:12 2014-15: 2:50
He has accumulated 35 of his 105 points on the power play, basically what amounts to a third of his production.
Knowing that a decent portion of his offense has come via the power play can Pittsburgh even accommodate him with those kinds of minutes?
Boedker’s best season was in 2013-14 when he put up 51 points in 82 games. Here are his similarity scores for that season:
Nothing about those comparables points to Boedker’s career year as being something way above average.
Chris Kunitz had his worse season as a Penguin in 2014-15. How did that compare with Mikkel Boedker’s career year in 2013-14?
So even after looking at all the information on Boedker there is still the issue of how Pittsburgh would actually acquire him (given assumption his contract talks fall through with Arizona).
The first option is an offer sheet, one that I don’t find likely at all.
If Pittsburgh offers anything over 3.653M the compensation would be very steep given the caliber of player Boedker is. Even if Pittsburgh was able to get Boedker to agree to less than 3.653M Pittsburgh doesn’t own their second round pick in 2016. Furthermore, Arizona would just match the contract anyways.
That leaves a trade as the only option. What would make sense for the Penguins? Considering they would need to create cap space to acquire Boedker somebody like Brandon Sutter would have to be going the other way. Is that something Arizona would be interested in? I can’t really say.
The likelihood of Mikkel Boedker as a Penguin is small and I’m not sold that the cost to acquire (assets + cap hit) is worth it for them. I just don’t see Boedker as a good target for Pittsburgh.
Thanks for reading!
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