Expect More.... of What You Saw Last Night
It’s time for a reality check in Winnipeg, or maybe for the fans of the Jets. It’s time to accept the fact that the Jets did not get any better this past off season. In fact the long term effects of roster decisions made last season may now be having a permanent impact, one that is not pushing the Jets in the direction they should be going in the ultra-competitive central division.
Last night against the Avalanche the Jets dominated for 2 periods, they controlled the Avalanche with compete effectiveness and the puck possession numbers are the evidence. However, the third period happened and the Jets could not finish the Avalanche off. Fingers can be pointed and blame assigned for one loss but the problem is not just for one game it’s systemic to the team and it’s identity this year.
Gone are strong possession players and in comes the youth; not developed youth but three rookies to start the season. Things were good at first but the NHL season is a sneaky thing and what we know is that teams, aside from the exceptional, tend to regress to the mean in terms of their results and Jets are one of those teams.
What it means is fans see games like last night and want to know why this team is different. They want to know what the problem is, they want to know why some players are not producing like before. Why aren’t the Jets looking like a playoff team.
The most obvious ‘big picture’ statement is that they are a weaker possession team than before. Why that is could be a host of reasons but personnel and system should lead the top of any list. For the purpose of this article let’s look at personnel, always the best topic with Jets fans when it comes to topics especially when it involves former players too.
The addition to the team this year is Drew Stafford, he of the 22% shooting rate to finish last season as a Jet after coming over from Buffalo. Here is Stafford’s progressive HERO chart metrics in overlapping 3 year intervals.
09-12
10-13
11-14
12-15
The part to look at with these is the Possession Impact part and see the consistent descent by Stafford to between 3rd and 4th liner.
Here is Lee Stempniak in the same periods
09-12
10-13
11-14
12-15
It’s the same time period and he’s a model of consistency in the same category that is pointed out with Stafford. In those date ranges Stempniak played with 5 different teams including the lacklustre Coyotes and Flames. Stafford was a Sabre and Jet.
Now look at Tyler Myers doing the same date ranges and metrics but close in on Possession Impact.
09-12
10-13
11-14
12-15
09-12
10-13
11-14
12-15
What we see here is that Myers and Bogosian are essentially the same player- they subbed out a 50$ bill for $50 in 10 dollar bills. It still equals the same thing. The thing that rubbed people the wrong way about Evander Kane was that he did not score to his pay cheque and he apparently took a lot of meaningless shots. The point here is that when Kane is on the ice he and his team end up with the puck and that’s how you score goals. Here is Kane.
09-12
10-12
11-14
12-15
Is Stafford better or worse than Kane? Even the most pessimistic person about Kane should be able to see that Stafford is an older down grade on Kane. The point is not that Kane should have been kept but that you need to know what you are giving up when trying to get a return- I’m not sure Chevy understood that. Now do you want me to revisit Frolik?
The replacements for these guys are Petan, now in the AHL, Copp who anchors the 4th line and Ehlers who is making a decent to the 3rd line and Burmistrov, bouncing between the 3rd and 4th lines. Anyone else concerned about Lowry’s sophomore slump?
The point to this is not to condemn or place blame but to set expectations that are more realistic to the changes that the Jets undertook last season and the off-season that affect them now. While concerning to watch the team toil in futility to beat the lowly Avalanche this is what the Jets are, a team in transition. They are injecting youth into the roster and did so at the expense of certain effective veterans. They also made changes to their vets too choosing some over others. Change usually brings bumps and this season will likely be a bumpy one for Winnipeg fans with highs and lows but in the end a season ending up where the first three did, not that bad but not good enough and this should not be a surprise.