The Rangers take on the Penguins in Game 4 of their playoff series Thursday at MSG. The odd-number games in a series are always critical as they help set the tone as to how a best-of-series will play out. However, for the second time already this series, it's a even-numbered game that's critical for New York.
The Blueshirts responded to their Game 1 loss with a complete effort in a 4-2 win over Pittsburgh to even the series at one. As we have seen so far with these playoffs and know from the Rangers the past five years, momentum doesn't carry over from one game to the next. New York is 10-22 after a win the past several years. That record added one of those losses Tuesday, as New York was either unable or unwilling to crack the Penguins' neutral zone. Call it a trap or good defense or whatever you want, but the end result was just 17 shots on net with no flow offensively.
To flip the script, the team needs to put in place what they know has to be done. Chip and charge, dump and drive. If the neutral zone is totally clogged, don't always try and skate through it. Softly put the puck in the far corner, drive hard to where it lands, bang bodies in the corner, forecheck like mad and create turnovers. That's not to say don't ever try and use speed through the neutral zone to try and change things up and keep Pittsburgh honest, but put on your big boy pants and work boots and out grind the Penguins.
As Steve Zipay wrote today, if you believe in history, then New York doesn't enter the game in bad shape. Of course, there are lies, damn lies and stats, so take what you want from the below.
Since the start of last year’s playoffs, the Rangers are 6-2 in games after a loss and have won their last five playoff games when trailing in a series, dating to Game 5 of the second round last year against the Capitals. And the Rangers are 9-2 in Game 4 at home of a playoff series since the start of the 2007 postseason...(In addition), they were 15-1-0 in games following their last 16 regulation losses during the regular season.
Motivation and the ability to get a team up to play has been discussed a lot. Coupled with that is the development of the right strategy. Both points are on the coaching staff as well as the players, but creating the right environment and game plan is on AV. So as Neil Best wrote today, AV has pressure on him as all, possibly as much as the players. The game plan seems relatively simple, it's the execution that failed Tuesday. Motivation has long been a problem. Maybe to fix it, AV should bring Nick Mangold into the locker room and have him scare the players, as he was doing being the Penguins bench Tuesday, to motivate them.
The lineup tonight may be similar to Tuesday. If Viktor Stalberg's dental work went off without a hitch - great job again by the NHL with no suspension on Kris Letang - he will be in the lineup. The remainder of the forwards are likely the same, though I might go with Oscar Lindberg in place of Tanner Glass, have Lindberg on the third line to try and create some offense, and move Jesper Fast to the fourth line. I said before the series the bottom-six would be a key. To date, Pittsburgh's bottom six has outplayed the Rangers' bottom six, capped to date by Matt Cullen's game-winning goal Tuesday. The other option, a suggested by Downeaster, is to move Eric Staal back to center as a way to try and get him going and scratch Kevin Hayes. Then move Stalberg up to play with Staal and Lindberg and have Fast play with Moore or Glass. It's an option and while I agree with moving Staal back to see if it helps his game, doubt AV scratches Hayes, given his size and ability to create at times, even though he quite probably deserves it.
On defense, I would sit Dan Boyle. Not that Boyle has been that bad but I would want Dylan McIlrath back on the lineup, especially if Glass is scratched. In addition, I like Yandle-McIlrath as a pairing, as they have been effective together. That would still leave McDonagh-Skjei and Staal-Klein as the other two pairings. If McDonagh's hand is healed enough for him to be 85-90% of what he is usually, I would actually have him back with Klein and move Skjei to play with Staal, breaking up the two other puck-moving d-men with Yandle already in the other pair.
Coming into the series - like al playoff series - special teams were key. To date, the Rangers are getting blown out of the water. During the regular season, the PP success for each squad was within percentage points. The big difference was on the penalty kill, where Pittsburgh was markedly better. The latter has bee true to form, as the Penguins have been successfully on 11-of-12 shorthanded situations, with New York's only goal coming on a 5-on-3. I might be accurate to say that New York has stopped New York, but that would be snarky. On the other side of the coin, the Penguins are having their was with the Rangers' penalty killers, as they are 4-for-13 in the series, including scoring a key late PPG on Tuesday. Whether it's personnel, scheme or both, if the Rangers don't figure it out soon, the series could end quickly. Maybe McDonagh will be better with a game underneath him, both shorthanded and on the PP. On the latter, if he can't shoot well enough, he has to be moved off the point on the second grouping. On the former, play Nash and Stepan together. Dress Lindberg and use him with Moore to create a new look. Limit the spacing, especially in the crease, with active sticks. In addition, be more aggressive on the PK, which is how they have had some success in the past.
Full desperation hasn't set in. That will happen if New York loses tonight. History, as seen above, seems to be on their side. Repeat that history and avoid not learning and being doomed from the history in Game 3. Win tonight and send the series back to Pittsburgh even at two.